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The purpose of this paper is to present the terms of grey forecasting models and techniques.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present the terms of grey forecasting models and techniques.
Design/methodology/approach
The definitions of basic terms about grey forecasting models and techniques are presented one by one.
Findings
The reader could know the basic explanation about the important terms about various grey forecasting models and techniques from this paper.
Practical implications
Many of the authors’ colleagues thought that unified definitions of key terms would be beneficial for both the readers and the authors.
Originality/value
It is a fundamental work to standardise all the definitions of terms for a new discipline. It is also propitious to spread and universal of grey system theory.
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Keywords
Sifeng Liu, Bo Zeng, Jiefang Liu, Naiming Xie and Yingjie Yang
– The purpose of this paper is to provide a foundational reference and practical guidance for modelling small and poor data with incomplete information.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a foundational reference and practical guidance for modelling small and poor data with incomplete information.
Design/methodology/approach
The definitions of four basic models of GM(1, 1), such as Even Grey Model (EGM), Original Difference Grey Model (ODGM), Even Difference Grey Model (EDGM) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM), are put forward. The properties and characteristics of different models are studied and their equivalence are proved. The suitable sequences of different models are studied by simulation and analysis with homogeneous exponential sequences, nonhomogeneous exponential increasing sequences and vibration sequences.
Findings
The main conclusions have been obtained as follows: first, the three discrete models of ODGM, EDGM and DGM are suitable for homogeneous exponential sequences or sequences which close to a homogeneous exponential sequence; and second the EGM are suitable for nonhomogeneous exponential increasing sequences and vibration sequences.
Practical implications
The outcome obtained in this paper can be consulted for model selection in the course of practical modelling.
Originality/value
This paper systematically defined the four basic forms of model GM(1, 1) and studied their properties and characteristics, especially their suitable sequences. Although significant progress has been made in this field, such a systematic study on these models and their suitable sequences is still missing as far as we know. It can provide reference and basis for people to choose the correct model in the actual modelling process.
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Sifeng Liu, Wei Tang, Dejin Song, Zhigeng Fang and Wenfeng Yuan
The purpose of this paper is to present a novel GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation in the large civil aircraft test flight phase.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present a novel GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation in the large civil aircraft test flight phase.
Design/methodology/approach
As limited data are collected during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, which are not enough to meet the requirements of the ASMAA model for reliability growth, four basic GM(1, 1) models, even grey model, original difference grey model, even difference grey model and discrete grey model, are presented. Then both forward and backward grey models GM(1,1) are built to forecast and obtain virtual test data on left and right sides. Then the ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation can be built based on original and virtual test data.
Findings
Aiming at the background of poor information data during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, first, a novel GREY‒ASMAA model, which was combined by the grey model GM(1,1) with the ASMAA model, has been put forward in this paper.
Practical implications
The GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation can be used to solve the problem of reliability growth evaluation with poor information data during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, and it has been used in reliability evaluation of C919 at the test flight stage.
Originality/value
This paper presents two new definitions of forward grey model GM(1,1) and backward grey model GM(1,1), as well as a novel GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation of large civil aircraft during test flight phase.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to summarize the different types of grey information, explain the mechanism of grey system modeling and reconstruct the framework of grey system…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to summarize the different types of grey information, explain the mechanism of grey system modeling and reconstruct the framework of grey system theory (GST).
Design/methodology/approach
GST has been developed for more than three decades; however, the framework of GST is still in an evolutionary process. This manuscript first explains grey information in detail, and then summarizes a series of grey system models under limited data and poor information. Figures and general steps for different types of grey system models are provided in this paper.
Findings
The findings in this paper clearly differentiate between grey information and other uncertainty information. The differences between grey system models and other uncertainty models are clearly explained. In addition, general steps for different grey system models are given which demonstrate the orientation of grey system modeling.
Practical implications
Theoretical framework is very important for developing a new theory. This paper clarified grey information and grey system-based modeling mechanism. It is very useful to understand and explain the systematic framework of GST and it contributes undoubtedly to make GST perfect.
Originality/value
Grey information is explained in terms of limited data and two types of grey numbers. Accordingly, all of the grey system models were divided into limited data-based grey system models and grey number-based grey system models.
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Matteo Podrecca and Marco Sartor
The aim of this paper is to present the first diffusion analysis of ISO/IEC 27001, the fourth most popular ISO certification at global level and the most important standard for…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to present the first diffusion analysis of ISO/IEC 27001, the fourth most popular ISO certification at global level and the most important standard for information security.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve the purposes, the authors applied Grey Models (GM) – Even GM (1,1), Even GM (1,1,α,θ), Discrete GM (1,1), Discrete GM (1,1,α) – complemented by the relative growth rate and the doubling time indexes on the six most important countries in terms of issued certificates.
Findings
Results show that a growing trend is likely to be expected in the years to come and that China will lead at country level.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the scientific debate by presenting the first diffusive analysis of ISO/IEC 27001 and by proposing a forecasting approach that to date has found little application in the field of international standards.
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Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane and Jean Gaston Tamba
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic…
Abstract
Purpose
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)).
Design/methodology/approach
Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique.
Findings
Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error.
Originality/value
These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.
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