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Technology and knowledge have become the buzzwords of the new millennium. Technological changes and demanding customers are creating a more knowledge intensive, turbulent, complex and uncertain environment. Organizations, which are able to continually build faster and cheaper new strategic assets than their competitors, create long-term competitive advantages. Thus, the growth of companies is directly associated with innovativeness and technological development, especially for small organizations that are more vulnerable to dynamic changes in market place. Organizations need a strategic framework that can help them to achieve the goal of technology development and competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to develop such strategic framework for small organizations for their technology development and, hence, survival in marketplace.

Options field methodology, options profile methodology, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory are utilized to generate various options and profiles to propose a conceptual framework for technology development.

The results from the study showed that “mixed approach,” “strategic simulation approach” and the “regulatory environment approach,” in this order, emerged as the top three important options for the strategic technological development of small manufacturing enterprises.

This result can provide an original and more accurate implementation pathway toward technological innovative development in emerging economies. The proposed framework can provide valuable guidelines and recommendations to practicing managers and analysts for policy development to promote innovative and technological developments.

Security and safety have remained important concerns for mankind since ancient times. In the context of railways, however, the threat perceptions to safety and security have increased significantly lately. In view of this, the Indian Railways requires an effective and efficient security management system. The purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated approach to help develop the Indian railway security system (IRSS) by successively reducing the complexity of the system through a series of studies.

The relevant elements of the complex system of Indian Railways have been identified. The framework in which the elements exist and interact with each other has been clearly established using the interpretive structural modelling (ISM) technique. The output of ISM is further reduced in complexity by having different policy option profiles. A comparison of different option profiles has been done by a multi-criteria decision-making technique, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), by choosing suitable criteria for comparison.

The following elements need to be pursued as the key objectives for making IRSS: protection of passengers, protection of property, modernisation, manpower enhancement, multi-skilling of staff, latest technology and enhanced legal powers.

The present research can be extended in many important ways. Interpretive structural models for different contextual relationships can be developed and used for formulating and implementing customised security policy. Policy elements and the ISM structure obtained in this research can be utilised for the system dynamic modelling of IRSS. A pilot study can be done to implement the recommendations made in this study.

The ISM model developed can be implemented as a policy tool in enhancing the railway’s security. Some of the policy elements proposed appear to be consistent with the strategic direction being undertaken in the railway security in the country.

Security is an important concern for mankind and social civilisations. The results have significant welfare implications in India and the rest of the world.

The present study is one of the first approaches in a series of studies in railway security in India. The results of this study can be extended to other security scenarios with similar needs.

Today, manufacturing companies are facing a fierce competition and are under great pressure to cut costs for survival in the market. So emphasis is given to enhance quality, minimize waste, customer delight and increasing productivity through reduction in wastage of resources. But, most companies hesitate to implement all measures simultaneously to acquire lean manufacturing because of some practical/ capital constraints. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a phase-wise approach to implement lean manufacturing.

The paper opted for an exploratory study using the qualitative flexible system methodology framework proposed by Sushil (1994) and options field methodology proposed by Warfield (1982, 1990) including rigorous group discussion comprising the employees representing middle and senior management with productivity improvement backgrounds. The response of experts was recorded using a specially designed instrument in the light of the parameters suggested in group discussion. The measures/ actions were arranged in the decreasing order of their cumulative score.

The paper provides a phase-wise approach to implement lean manufacturing. Mixed approach is preferred over the other three approaches to implement lean manufacturing. Thirty measures/actions contributing to mixed approach are identified to implement lean manufacturing in three phases. A three-phase approach is developed: 10, 14 and six measures in the first, second and third phases, respectively, are identified to implement lean manufacturing after considering the practical constraints faced by the companies.

All the measures/actions suggested to implement lean manufacturing are focused on the engineering manufacturing industry. Thus, the research results may lack generalizability and are limited to engineering manufacturing industry. The model developed in this research is based upon experts’ opinions. The experts’ opinion may be biased. The results of the model may vary in the real-world setting.

The present paper provides guidelines to practitioners for implementing lean manufacturing in phases. Hopefully, this study will motivate the firm’s management for implementing lean manufacturing and limiting the effect of practical constraints and scarcity of resources.

This paper fulfills and identifies the need to develop an approach to implement lean manufacturing phase wise because of practical constraints.

Delivering premium services and quality products are critical strategies for success in manufacturing. Continuous improvement (CI), as an underlying foundation for quality management, is an ongoing effort allowing manufacturing companies to see beyond the present to create a bright future. We propose a novel integrated fuzzy framework for analyzing the barriers to the implementation of CI in manufacturing companies.

We use the fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and a fuzzy Shannon's entropy to identify and weigh the most significant barriers. We then use fuzzy multi-objective optimization based on ratio analysis (MOORA), the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy simple additive weighting (SAW) methods for prioritizing and ranking the barriers with each method. Finally, we aggregate these results with Copeland's method and extract the main CI implementation barriers in manufacturing.

We show “low cooperation and integration of the team in CI activities” is the most important barrier in CI implementation. Other important barriers are “limited management support in CI activities,” “low employee involvement in CI activities,” “weak communication system in the organization,” and “lack of knowledge in the organization to implement CI projects.”

We initially identify the barriers to the implementation of CI through rigorous literature review and then apply a unique integrated fuzzy approach to identify the most important barriers based on the opinions of industry experts and academics.

This paper aims to present a financial valuation framework based on the real options theory to evaluate investments in toll road projects delivered under the two‐phase development plan.

The approach is based on applying the real options theory to evaluate investments in toll road projects. In particular, the risk‐neutral valuation method is used for pricing flexibility embedded in the two‐phase development plan. Risk‐neutral binomial lattice is used to model traffic uncertainty and to find the optimal time for the toll road expansion. Probabilistic life cycle cost and revenue analysis is conducted to characterize the investor's financial risk profile and determine the flexibility value of the expansion option.

The flexible, two‐phase development plan can improve the investor's financial risk profile in the toll road project through limiting the downside risk of overinvestment (i.e. decreasing the probability of investment loss) and increasing the expected investment value in a highway project.

Private and public sectors can benefit from this valuation framework and use tax dollars and users' fees effectively through avoiding overinvestment in toll road projects.

The framework consists of several integrated features, which distinguish it from existing investment valuation models. The risk‐neutral valuation method for pricing flexibility embedded in the two‐phase development plan is applied. This real options framework is capable of characterizing traffic boundary, at which it is optimal for the investor to expand the toll road. Further, this framework provides the likelihood distribution of when the investor may expand the toll road.

This paper aims to use a risk management approach for re-profiling of sovereign debt. It develops profiles that trade off expected cost of financing alternative debt structures against their risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for countries facing sovereign debt crisis, as they allow us to identify, with high probability, debt unsustainability. Risk profiles for two eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, were developed. In addition, risk profiles were developed for a proposal to impose debt sanctions in the Ukrainian crisis and it was shown that the financial impact could be substantial.

Using scenario analysis, a risk measure of the sovereign’s debt – Conditional Debt-at-Risk – was developed, and an optimization model was then used to trade off expected cost of debt financing against the Conditional Debt-at-Risk. The model is applied to three diverse settings from current crises.

The methodology traces informative risk profiles to identify sustainable debt structures. Interesting, although tentative, conclusions are drawn for the countries where the methodology was applied. Cyprus’s debt sustainability hinges on current International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections about gross domestic product growth and small deviations can push debt into unsustainable territory. For Italy, our analysis provides evidence of debt unsustainability. Common assumption of debt by eurozone member states could restore sustainability for Italy. Finally, it is shown how a proposal to impose debt sanctions against Russia for the Ukrainian crisis could have significant financial impact for Ukraine.

Additional work is needed to calibrate the simulation models for each country separately. Nevertheless, the direction of the results is such that more careful calibration will most likely not alter the conclusions but make them stronger instead.

The results provide significant insights for the management of sovereign debt for Cyprus and Italy. They also show the significant positive impact on Ukrainian public finances from debt sanctions. However, the most important practical implication is to show how the proposed methodology provided a decision support tool for restructuring and rescheduling sovereign debt for crisis countries.

There is widespread acceptance that debt restructuring has been too little and too late in recent crises failing to re-establish market access in a durable way. How to develop risk profiles for alternative debt structures has been illustrated. Debt profiles that are unsustainable can be identified, with high probability, and alternative structures proposed that restore sustainability. The methodology proposed in this paper is providing a useful tool of analysis. The topic of debt relief is currently debated widely at policy circles by the IMF and the United Nations, and the analysis of this paper provides some insightful input to the debate.

The use of scenario analysis for sovereign debt modeling and the use of an optimization model developed by the authors in previous research provide empirical analysis for three current problems in sovereign debt management. Useful insights are obtained for three important real-world cases for Cyprus, Italy and Ukraine.

Post-disaster housing reconstruction (PDHR) demands a considerable percentage of global property investment, yet the post-disaster environment presents intricate challenges to reconstruction financing for governments and at the same time, revenue uncertainty for private investors. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for tackling land shortage and the financial challenges of PDHR in the aftermath of a disaster.

This study developed a methodology based on a combined minimum revenue guarantee and maximum revenue cap model using a well-established real options analysis (ROA) for revenue risk sharing in PDHR projects and land readjustment (LR) for finance. The applicability of the purported model is demonstrated through an illustrative example.

The results show that flexibility in the options could increase the PDHR contractor’s risk profile by increasing the expected value of the contractor investment and reducing the probability of investment loss. On the other side, a cap on the contractor revenue stream would allow the government to benefit from any excess in revenue and would counterbalance the value of the option.

The framework proposed in this study could serve as a practical risk-revenue sharing in PDHR projects. Governments and policymakers could use the findings to enable the successful delivery of PDHR projects and consequently bring the quality of life of affected people to pre-disaster conditions.

This study can be considered as a first attempt toward the use of the Australian barrier style options structure, and the trinomial lattice valuation model in PDHR projects, which incorporates LR, public-private partnerships, governmental guarantees and PDHR concepts in one ROA-based framework.

The purpose of this paper is to integrate land use and option pricing theories using case study analyses to compare a portfolio of uses comprising single and mixed‐use development on the same site and assess the effects on the risk‐return profile of potential development schemes. The integration of land use development based on highest and best use (HBU) is tested against a combination of uses on the selected sites at a point in time in the downswing of the real estate cycle.

The proposed methodology integrates the development valuation approach with option theory in which both consider the relationships of cost and value associated with alternative development options. The approach used in this paper addresses the broader consideration of project coordination inclusive of land use flexibility and opportunity costs endogenously associated with development strategies. By investigating the uncertainty of economic options specific to the development process, the methodology considers the significance of complementary components of strategic decisions and entrepreneurial effort within a return/risk management strategy.

The stochastic model when compared to the real option model enhances strategic decisions and development project management by allowing the consideration of single/mixed‐use alternatives. The development process is facilitated by the research findings whereby alternative uses are tested to maximise the potential use of the site. The analyses consider optimal funding strategies in developing and investing for a range of use options on regeneration sites.

The significant insights apparent from the research is the quantification of the strategic specification of development as a productive process and an investment endeavour. The proposed model enables a comparison of a HBU based on a single development, a mixed‐use development or a combination of uses as the difference between the scenarios impacts on land value and profit measures, especially where these measures are calculated as distributive residuals.

The stochastic model developed in this paper provides a value‐added contribution to real estate literature by considering the complexity of the interrelationships between urban land economics, land use theory, valuation appraisal methodologies, portfolio analysis and option pricing as applied in the development of regeneration schemes.

Socially responsible investment (SRI) funds have grown dramatically as an investment alternative in most of the developed world. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This study uses a structured experimental approach to determine if the decision-making process of investors to invest in SRIs is consistent with the process used for conventional investments. The theoretical framework draws on two widely studied concepts in the decision making and investment literature, namely, inertia and discounting.

The authors find that inertia plays a significant role in the selection of SRI funds and that investors systemically discount the value of SRIs.

The results suggest that SRIs need to be designed to cater to the risk/return profiles of investors and that these investors need to be better informed about the performance of SRIs vs conventional investments to reduce their systematic discounting.

Unique experimental approach applied to investment alternatives in a manner that captures individual level variation.

The purpose of this paper is to explore various in-flight crew escape options of a prototype transport aircraft and finalize the option offering safest crew egress for different combinations of contingencies and flight conditions.

Various egress options were explored through simulation in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software using aircraft 3D CAD model and scalable digital mannequins. For this, certain important contingencies which best describe the extreme aircraft behaviour were identified. Crew escape options, which have least external interference in expected egress trajectory, were selected. Several test simulations representing each feasible combination of contingency, escape option and flight condition were simulated. The option which offers safe crew escape in each test case is deemed to be the safest egress option for the test aircraft.

Among five options explored, crew escape through forward ventral hatch provided the safest crew escape for all test cases. The selected option was validated for robustness with additional test cases modelling different anthropometric characteristics of 5th and 50th percentile pilot populations with different postures.

In-flight validation of safe crew escape option is infeasible by actual trial. Exploration of safe crew options for required number of test cases by any analytical method or by wind tunnels tests is tedious, time consuming and extremely expensive. On the other hand, exploration of safest crew option by CFD, besides being first of its kind, provides convenient option to configure, test and validate different test cases with unmatched benefits in time, cost and simplicity.