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1 – 10 of 462Paul Owusu Takyi, Daniel Sakyi, Hadrat Yusif, Grace Nkansa Asante, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu and Gideon Mensah
This paper explores the implications of financial inclusion and financial development for the conduct of monetary policy in achieving price stability and economic growth in…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores the implications of financial inclusion and financial development for the conduct of monetary policy in achieving price stability and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper employs the system-generalized methods of moment (GMM) estimation technique using panel data spanning 2004 to 2019 and sourced from Databases of (International Monetary Fund's) IMF's Financial Access Survey (FAS), IMF's International Financial Statistics (IFS), World Bank's Global Financial Development Database (GFDD) and World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI).
Findings
The authors find that financial inclusion has a double-edge effect in SSA. That is, it increases economic growth and lowers inflation in SSA. Furthermore, the results show that a simultaneous increase in financial inclusion and financial development have restrictive effects on economic growth. On the evidence provided, the authors conclude that financial inclusion is an important predictor of economic growth and the conduct of monetary policy in the sub-region.
Originality/value
This paper expands and contributes to the frontier of knowledge how financial inclusion is important for the conduct of monetary policy by monetary authorities in achieving its intended objectives in SSA. The paper highlights the need for ongoing enhancement of financial inclusion of many governments in the sub-region to achieving high economic growth and price stability. Thus, there is the need for policy makers to ensure that a more stringent, effective and appropriate policies and measures are put in place to enhance financial inclusion while taking into consideration the extent of financial development in SSA.
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Evelina Kvedaravičiūtė and Alfreda Šapkauskienė
We aim to conduct a bibliometric analysis that explores and maps quantitative data of the emerging field of central bank digital currencies in science and its implications in…
Abstract
Purpose
We aim to conduct a bibliometric analysis that explores and maps quantitative data of the emerging field of central bank digital currencies in science and its implications in practice. We seek to clarify the underlying research structures and streams of the new phenomena, and our motivation is the rising number of pilots between governments seeking to implement different types of central bank digital currency.
Design/methodology/approach
We designed the unique set of keywords to explore ongoing projects on central bank digital currencies and the evolution of scientific thought on the topic. We conducted a descriptive analysis and an evaluating bibliometric analysis on the timeline from 2018 to April 18, 2023 and investigated 76 articles in the Web of Science database and 152 articles in the Scopus database using VOSviewer.
Findings
We highlight three main directions of discourse on central bank digital currencies in economics using authors keyword analysis, that are: (1) cash, (2) monetary policy and (3) financial stability. We conducted a map-based text analysis of the abstracts and identified the following main streams of discussion in the field: (1) policy-related research on financial systems, (2) a comprehensive review of the design and features of central bank digital currencies and (3) research on the impact of central bank digital currencies on the banking system.
Originality/value
The unique set of keywords allows us to continue the discourse on central bank digital currencies including implications of ongoing governmental projects on the topic and provide directions for future research. We brought the focus on the impact of central bank digital currencies on the banking sector and the new possible order for cash, deposits and payments.
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Thang Ngoc Doan, Dong Phu Do and Dat Van Luong
This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data from 2011 to 2021. Monetary stance is a multivariate index based on the growth rates of money supply and domestic credit. A large set of articles published in five Vietnam daily newspapers are utilized to construct a view of the media's favorableness to the monetary policy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses hand-collected data from 211 articles published in five newspapers from December 2011 to September 2021 in order to examine the relationship between the monetary stance and the media's favorableness to monetary policy. Following the studies of He and Pauwels (2008) and Xiong (2012), the authors constructed a multivariate stance index to capture most of the important changes in the SBV's monetary policy stance.
Findings
The study's main findings are that a change in monetary stance from easing to neutral/tightening, or from neutral to tightening, is greatly appreciated by the media. The study's findings are robust, especially in terms of alternative measures of the media's favorableness and monetary policy variables.
Research limitations/implications
These findings have important policy implications for implementing SBV's monetary policy.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper is that the authors are the first to study the nexus of multivariate monetary stance and the media's favorableness to a central bank's non-inflation-targeting mandate. In particular, the study’s findings confirm that the SBV's multivariate monetary stance affects the media's favorableness, whereas the effect of inflation is statistically insignificant.
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Baba Mohammed Adam, Emmanuel Sarpong-Kumankoma and Vera Fiador
This study aims to examine the impact of economic freedom and corruption on bank stability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of economic freedom and corruption on bank stability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses 38 countries in SSA from 2008 to 2019 using system GMM technique.
Findings
The authors found that greater economic freedom increases economic efficiency through improving bank stability. Besides this, the authors also find that banks in environments with greater business freedom, financial freedom, trade freedom and investment freedom are less prone to solvency. The results also show that corruption improves bank stability, suggesting evidence of the “grease the wheels” hypothesis.
Practical implications
The results suggest to policymakers that a high economic freedom may be an appropriate policy toward enhancing bank stability. Besides this, the results also suggest to policymakers to prioritize addressing the core issues that encourage corruption to extort bribes.
Originality/value
This study provides insightful discussion on whether economic freedom and its subcomponents and corruption have an effect on bank stability in SSA.
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Sérgio Kannebley Júnior, Diogo de Prince and Daniel Quinaud Pedron da Silva
Brazil uses the dollar as a vehicle currency to invoice its exports. This fact produces a tendency toward equalizing the prices of products in dollars in the international market…
Abstract
Purpose
Brazil uses the dollar as a vehicle currency to invoice its exports. This fact produces a tendency toward equalizing the prices of products in dollars in the international market and reducing the ability of firms to practice pricing-to-market (PTM). This study aims to evaluate the hypothesis by estimating error correction models in panel data, obtaining estimates of PTM for 25 manufacturing products exported by Brazil between 2010 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the correlated common effect estimator proposed by Pesaran (2006) and Chudik and Pesaran (2015b) to estimate the PTM coefficients.
Findings
Results of this study indicate that exporters practice local-currency pricing stability for dollar prices. This study obtains that Brazilian exporters tend to stabilize their dollar price for exports, reducing heterogeneity between destination markets. The results are in agreement with the hypothesis of the prevalence of the coalescing effect of Goldberg and Tille (2008) and lower sensitivity of the markup adjustment to the specific market, as pointed out by Corsetti et al. (2018). The pricing of Brazilian exports in dollars reflects a profit maximization strategy that considers an international price system based on global demand for products.
Originality/value
In addition to analyzing the dollar role in the pricing of Brazilian exports through the triangular decomposition, this study also shows the importance of examining the cross-section dependence of errors, considering the heterogeneous cointegration in export pricing models and producing PTM estimates for short-term and long-term.
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Olumide O. Olaoye and Mulatu F. Zerihun
The study examined the roles of fiscal and monetary policy in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while accounting for macroeconomic disruptions. In particular, the…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examined the roles of fiscal and monetary policy in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while accounting for macroeconomic disruptions. In particular, the study examined the complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy to mitigate shocks and reduce poverty in SSA.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the fixed effect (within regression) model to account for country-specific characteristics, and a cross-sectional dependence – consistent model to control for the potential cross-sectional in panel data modelling. The study used the dummy variable approach to account for the macroeconomic shocks. The authors assigned 1 to the following years – 2008, 2014 and 2020; and 0 otherwise to take care of the global financial crisis, commodity terms of trade shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic respectively.
Findings
The study found that fiscal policy (particularly, government spending on health and education) has the greater capacity to reduce the level of poverty in SSA. The results also indicate that fiscal policy and monetary policy can work in tandem to reduce the negative effects of a pandemic. However, the study found an optimal threshold level of monetary policy beyond which monetary policy reduces the effectiveness of fiscal policy to reduce poverty in SSA. The research and policy implications are discussed.
Originality/value
The study, unlike previous studies, accounts for the impact of macroeconomic shocks in the monetary/fiscal policy and poverty literature.
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Łukasz Kurowski and Paweł Smaga
Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies…
Abstract
Purpose
Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.
Design/methodology/approach
A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.
Findings
Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.
Practical implications
Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.
Originality/value
The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Lorraine Greyling
This study aims to test the validity of the Rajan theory in South Africa and other selected emerging markets (Chile, Peru and Brazil) during the period 1975–2019.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to test the validity of the Rajan theory in South Africa and other selected emerging markets (Chile, Peru and Brazil) during the period 1975–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the researchers used time-series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with hierarchical priors. The BVAR technique has the advantage of being able to accommodate a wide cross-section of variables without running out of degrees of freedom. It is also able to deal with dense parameterization by imposing structure on model coefficients via prior information and optimal choice of the degree of formativeness.
Findings
The results for all countries except Peru confirmed the Rajan hypotheses, indicating that inequality contributes to high indebtedness, resulting in financial fragility. However, for Peru, this study finds it contradicts the theory. This study controlled for monetary policy shock and found the results differing country-specific.
Originality/value
The findings suggest that an escalating level of inequality leads to financial fragility, which implies that policymakers ought to be cautious of excessive inequality when endeavouring to contain the risk of financial fragility, by implementing sound structural reform policies that aim to attract investments consistent with job creation, development and growth in these countries. Policymakers should also be cautious when implementing policy tools (redistributive policies, a sound monetary policy), as they seem to increase the risk of excessive credit growth and financial fragility, and they need to treat income inequality as an important factor relevant to macroeconomic aggregates and financial fragility.
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Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug
Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…
Abstract
Purpose
Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).
Findings
The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.
Practical implications
The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.
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