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Book part
Publication date: 22 November 2012

Eiji Okano, Masataka Eguchi, Hiroshi Gunji and Tomomi Miyazaki

We analyze fluctuations in inflation and the nominal exchange rate under optimal monetary policy with local currency pricing by developing two-country DSGE local currency pricing…

Abstract

We analyze fluctuations in inflation and the nominal exchange rate under optimal monetary policy with local currency pricing by developing two-country DSGE local currency pricing and producer currency pricing models. We estimate our models using Bayesian techniques with Japanese and US data, and calculate impulse response functions. Our estimation results show that local currency pricing is strongly supported against producer currency pricing. From the estimated parameters, we show that completely stabilizing consumer price index inflation is optimal from the viewpoint of minimizing welfare costs and that completely stabilizing consumer price index inflation is consistent with completely stabilizing the nominal exchange rate.

Details

DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-305-6

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Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi and Eric Osei-Assibey

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.

Findings

The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.

Practical implications

The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.

Originality/value

The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2021

Siddhartha Chattopadhyay

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as…

Abstract

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as Neo-Fisherianism. This chapter proposes a policy based on Neo-Fisherianism to escape Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) using a textbook Forward Looking New Keynesian Model. I have shown that proposed policy with properly chosen inflation target and persistence can stimulate economy and escape ZLB by raising nominal interest rate. I have also shown that the proposed policy is robust to varying degrees of price stickiness.

Details

Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-594-4

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Abstract

Details

Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Jihene Bousrih

The purpose of this paper is to deal with the dynamics of a Neo‐Keynesian model applied to a small open economy, in order to show the impact of commercial openness on the choice…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to deal with the dynamics of a Neo‐Keynesian model applied to a small open economy, in order to show the impact of commercial openness on the choice of the optimal inflation target.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses a neo‐Keynesian model with calibration for Chile.

Findings

The results show that there is a relation between the degree of openness and the type of inflation targeting policy.

Originality/value

The originality of the paper is to use a neo‐Keynesian model to deal with a small open economy, which uses inflation targeting as a monetary rule.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 1994

David Fielding

Uses recently developed techniques in the estimation of non‐stationarytime series to construct money demand functions for four Africaneconomies, using quarterly data. Finds that…

1604

Abstract

Uses recently developed techniques in the estimation of non‐stationary time series to construct money demand functions for four African economies, using quarterly data. Finds that money demand depends not only on income, inflation and interest rates, but also on variability of inflation and interest rates: the more variable the return to an asset, the lower its demand. Reports the first quarterly models of money demand (as far as we are aware) in Cameroon, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. Finds that the model for Kenya encompasses existing models. The estimated models have important policy implications. Since high inflation tends to be associated with highly variable inflation, any calculation of the seignorage‐maximizing rate of inflation which ignores the variability effect will overestimate the optimal rate of inflation. Insofar as membership of a monetary union reduces not only the rate of inflation but also its variability, there are extra gains from membership of such a union (Cameroon and Ivory Coast are Franc Zone members; Nigeria and Kenya are not). However, the heter‐ogeneity of the estimated functions suggests that it would be very difficult to have an effective monetary policy were the four countries considered members of the same monetary union.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2007

Subrata Ghatak and Willy Spanjers

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential benefits of monetary policy rules for transition economies (TEs).

1767

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential benefits of monetary policy rules for transition economies (TEs).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper discusses monetary policy rules, inflation targeting, political risk and ambiguity and monetary policy and ambiguity.

Findings

It is argued that the nominal interest rate may fail to be the appropriate instrument in such rules. One reason is the amount of non‐calculable political and economic risk inherent in TEs. These risks lead to a significant and volatile‐ambiguity premium in the interest rate over and above the normal risk premium, which makes the real equilibrium interest rate difficult to measure. Furthermore, ambiguity of the public regarding the monetary policy leads to an ambiguity premium on inflation.

Originality/value

The paper advocates a simple monetary policy rule based on a monetary aggregate like the money base minimizes the impact of ambiguity. It may therefore be the appropriate monetary policy for TEs.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1998

John Ashworth and Lynne Evans

This paper tests the extended tax‐smoothing model for a sample of 32 developing countries. Importantly, the testable implications employed relax the assumption of constant money…

960

Abstract

This paper tests the extended tax‐smoothing model for a sample of 32 developing countries. Importantly, the testable implications employed relax the assumption of constant money velocity. Although seigniorage is an important source of revenue in developing countries, all the evidence indicates that the principles of optimal taxation have not been used when developing countries raise revenue from inflation.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 25 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Abstract

Details

The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: Perspectives from Emerging Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-319-8

Article
Publication date: 9 September 2011

Kunting Chen and Changbiao Zhong

This paper aims to study the formation and amplification mechanism of the financial crisis and business cycle and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the formation and amplification mechanism of the financial crisis and business cycle and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank and government.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is developed basically on a simple financial business cycle model by embedding credit constrains into the DSGE model.

Findings

The model in this paper puts forward an explanation for the mechanism of cycles' formation. Using this it finds that: the financial lever in modern economy is the offender of the USA financial crisis, which created the cycles and amplified it into the crisis when the financial lever multiple was increased to much greater levels, and that the traditional policy rule is not good enough for a long running growth process.

Research limitations/implications

The findings in this study suggest that to keep the financial lever multiple under a safe level and to reform the policy rule to be good enough for a long run growth process is necessary.

Practical implications

According to the model's principle, the paper claims that: the development of the financial and credit markets during recent years has increased the volatility of the economic cycle – excessive credit abuse has become the root cause of the instability of the economy system; the proportion of the mortgage loan and similar financial products in the economy should be controlled strictly; it is necessary to recheck the traditional standpoint of the monetary policy. Rule policy by the Keynesian model exists as a short‐term problem, thus it is not sufficient to study the questions related to technological shocks.

Originality/value

The model in this paper explains well the mechanism of cycles and crisis' formation. The findings under the modeling economy give a safe level for financial lever multiples for the first time. The financial business cycle model being used in studying the Chinese economy is a pioneering and exploratory experiment.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 1 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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