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Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi and Eric Osei-Assibey

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.

Findings

The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.

Practical implications

The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.

Originality/value

The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 September 2023

Shaun Shuxun Wang

This paper provides a structural model to value startup companies and determine the optimal level of research and development (R&D) spending by these companies.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper provides a structural model to value startup companies and determine the optimal level of research and development (R&D) spending by these companies.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper describes a new variant of float-the-money options, which can act as a financial instrument for financing R&D expenses for a specific time horizon or development stage, allowing the investor to share in the startup's value appreciation over that duration. Another innovation of this paper is that it develops a structural model for evaluating optimal level of R&D spending over a given time horizon. The paper deploys the Gompertz-Cox model for the R&D project outcomes, which facilitates investigation of how increased level of R&D input can enhance the company's value growth.

Findings

The author first introduces a time-varying drift term into standard Black-Scholes model to account for the varying growth rates of the startup at different stages, and the author interprets venture capital's investment in the startup as a “float-the-money” option. The author then incorporates the probabilities of startup failures at multiple stages into their financial valuation. The author gets a closed-form pricing formula for the contingent option of value appreciation. Finally, the author utilizes Cox proportional hazards model to analyze the optimal level of R&D input that maximizes the return on investment.

Research limitations/implications

The integrated contingent claims model links the change in the financial valuation of startups with the incremental R&D spending. The Gompertz-Cox contingency model for R&D success rate is used to quantify the optimal level of R&D input. This model assumption may be simplistic, but nevertheless illustrative.

Practical implications

Once supplemented with actual transaction data, the model can serve as a reference benchmark valuation of new project deals and previously invested projects seeking exit.

Social implications

The integrated structural model can potentially have much wider applications beyond valuation of startup companies. For instance, in valuing a company's risk management, the level of R&D spending in the model can be replaced by the company's budget for risk management. As another promising application, in evaluating a country's economic growth rate in the face of rising climate risks, the level of R&D spending in this paper can be replaced by a country's investment in addressing climate risks.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to develop an integrated valuation model for startups by combining the real-world R&D project contingencies with risk-neutral valuation of the potential payoffs.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2024

Anam Ul Haq Ganie and Masroor Ahmad

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth on per capita CO2 emissions during the time span from…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth on per capita CO2 emissions during the time span from 1980 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the logistic smooth transition autoregression (STAR) model to decipher the nonlinear relationship between RE consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the Indian economy.

Findings

The estimated results confirm a nonlinear relationship between India’s economic growth, RE consumption and CO2 emissions. The authors found that economic growth positively impacts CO2 emissions until it reaches a specific threshold of 1.81 (per capita growth). Beyond this point, further economic growth leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions. Similarly, RE consumption positively affects CO2 emissions until economic growth reaches the same threshold level, after which an increase in RE consumption negatively impacts CO2 emissions.

Research limitations/implications

The study suggests that India should optimize the balance between economic growth and RE consumption to mitigate CO2 emissions. Policymakers should prioritize the adoption of RE during the early stages of economic growth. As economic growth reaches the specific threshold of 1.81 per capita, the economy should shift to more sustainable and energy-efficient practices to limit the effect of further CO2 emissions on further economic growth.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first-ever endeavor to reexamine the nonlinear relationship between RE consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in India, using the STAR model.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 January 2024

Juan Gabriel Brida, Emiliano Alvarez, Gaston Cayssials and Matias Mednik

Our paper studies a central issue with a long history in economics: the relationship between population and economic growth. We analyze the joint dynamics of economic and…

Abstract

Purpose

Our paper studies a central issue with a long history in economics: the relationship between population and economic growth. We analyze the joint dynamics of economic and demographic growth in 111 countries during the period 1960–2019.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces the notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a minimal spanning tree (MST) and a hierarchical tree (HT) are constructed to detect groups of countries sharing similar dynamic performance.

Findings

The methodology confirms the existence of three country clubs, each of which exhibits a different dynamic behavior pattern. The analysis also shows that the clusters clearly differ with respect to the evolution of other fundamental variables not previously considered [gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, human capital and life expectancy, among others].

Practical implications

Our results indirectly suggest the existence of dynamic interdependence in the trajectories of economic growth and population change between countries. It also provides evidence against single-model approaches to explain the interdependence between demographic change and economic growth.

Originality/value

We introduce a methodology that allows for a model-free topological and hierarchical description of the interplay between economic growth and population.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2023

Afifa Ferhi and Helali Kamel

Today, the increasing use of fossil fuels, energy security, concerns and the great importance of achieving sustainable economic growth underscore the urgent need to transition to…

Abstract

Purpose

Today, the increasing use of fossil fuels, energy security, concerns and the great importance of achieving sustainable economic growth underscore the urgent need to transition to a green energy system as soon as possible. To shed light on the relationship between the economy and renewable energy, this study assesses the nonlinear relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for 24 OECD countries between 1990 and 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply two nonlinear models: panel threshold regression (PTR) and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR).

Findings

The results show that the positive effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is conditional. On the one hand, the results of the nonlinear PTR model yielded a threshold value for renewable energy consumption of about 251.17. Below this threshold, the authors find a negative impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth. However, above this threshold, renewable energy consumption becomes a favorable source of economic growth. Using the nonlinear PSTR model based on the gamma transition parameter of 2.014, the transition from low renewable energy consumption regime to higher is abrupt.

Originality/value

Referring to previous studies analyzing linear causality between renewable energy and economic growth, most of the results show various mixed and non-stable effects over the study period. The contributions of this study consist in conduct a series of empirical tests of the nonlinear effects of renewable energy use on economic growth using two nonlinear approaches such as the PTR and PSTR models. If the authors show that such a relationship is nonlinear, it is essential to check whether the transition from one weak regime to another strong regime is abrupt or smooth, using the PSTR approach.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Joseph David, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, Mohd Asri Mohd Noor and Zainizam Zakariya

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period.

Design/methodology/approach

Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality.

Findings

The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates slow down long-term growth. Additionally, the causality test results illustrate the presence of a one-way causality from oil rent to economic growth and a bi-directional causal relationship between corruption and economic growth.

Originality/value

Existing studies focused on the effects of either oil rent or corruption on growth in Nigeria. Little attention has been paid to the exploration of how the rent from oil and the pervasiveness of corruption contribute to the performance of the Nigerian economy. Based on the outcome of this study, strategies and policies geared towards reducing oil dependence and the pervasiveness of corruption, enhancing human capital and financial development and reducing unemployment are recommended.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2023

Litao Zhong, Lei Wen and Zhimin Wang

This paper aims to explore the interplay between industrial diversity and sustainable economic development in US counties.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the interplay between industrial diversity and sustainable economic development in US counties.

Design/methodology/approach

Among other popularly used measures, this study uses an underused measure, Hachman index, to gauge the degree of industrial diversity in the models. To capture the impact of industrial diversity on the local community, this study estimates the relationship of two diversity measures to four traditional socioeconomic indicators: per capita personal income growth, gross domestic product per worker, income inequality ratio and poverty rate.

Findings

Statistical results suggest that industrial diversity, which is measured by Hachman index, is significantly related to the four socio-economic indicators. Industrial diversity can positively contribute to regional per capita personal income growth and mitigate income inequality and poverty stress; however, it is negatively related to the gross domestic product (GDP) per worker, which means industrial specialization may contribute to GDP per worker growth.

Originality/value

The findings of this study show that there is a nonlinear relationship between industrial diversity and all socioeconomic indicators. Most of the control variables, human capital variables and business and industry profile variables also display significant and positive impacts on economic development.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 23 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 February 2024

Rezart Demiraj, Lasha Labadze, Suzan Dsouza, Enida Demiraj and Maya Grigolia

This paper explores the connection between capital structure and financial performance within European listed firms. The primary objective is to demonstrate an inverse U-shaped…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper explores the connection between capital structure and financial performance within European listed firms. The primary objective is to demonstrate an inverse U-shaped relationship between these two variables and pinpoint an optimal debt-equity mix.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, we adopt a dynamic modeling approach to investigate the relationship between a firm’s capital structure and financial performance. Drawing on well-established theories and prior empirical studies, our model examines 3,121 dividend-paying firms from 41 European countries over 14 years, from 2008 to 2021. To enhance the reliability of our findings, we employ two distinct estimation techniques: the fixed effect model (FE) and the system generalized method of moments (System-GMM).

Findings

This study reveals an inverse U-shaped relationship between the firm’s financial performance, measured by the return on equity (ROE) and its capital structure (total liability to total assets ratio). Furthermore, an optimal capital structure of about 29% is determined for all firms in the sample, and about 21%, 28% and 41% industry-specific capital structure for manufacturing, real estate and wholesale trade, respectively.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to existing knowledge by empirically determining an optimal capital structure for listed firms across various industries in Europe, which very few studies have attempted to do in the past. An optimal capital structure is an invaluable benchmark for managers and other stakeholders, informing their decision-making.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 November 2022

Jun Shen, Kai Zhao and Minjie Mo

This paper investigates how the gap between the host country's actual and optimal financial conditions affects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows through evidence from China.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates how the gap between the host country's actual and optimal financial conditions affects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows through evidence from China.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors first employ principal component analysis (PCA) to measure FDI target countries' actual financial conditions and use 30 OECD countries as a reference group to assess the optimal financial condition. The authors then estimate a two-way fixed effect model with panel data of China's outward FDI in 64 countries for the period 2003–2017 to get the regression results. The authors' results overcome endogeneity and are robust.

Findings

Results show that (1) the gaps between host countries' actual and optimal financial conditions positively affect FDI inflows from China; (2) there is a heterogeneous effect between low-income and high-income countries. The gaps for high-income countries significantly increase FDI inflows from China, while the gaps are not significant for low-income countries.

Research limitations/implications

The authors examine how the gap affects FDI inflows from China. An increase of 1% in the target country's gap promotes a 6.3% increase in FDI inflows. However, the authors do not explore what mechanisms are key to these results. The authors will explore these questions in the future.

Originality/value

This paper complements the influence factors of FDI and enriches theories of FDI. The gap between actual and optimal financial conditions plays an essential role in FDI flows across countries for policymakers.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 March 2024

Lukman Raimi, Nurudeen Babatunde Bamiro and Hazwan Haini

The relationships among institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth are hotly contested topics. The objective of this present study is to conduct a systematic literature…

Abstract

Purpose

The relationships among institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth are hotly contested topics. The objective of this present study is to conduct a systematic literature review aimed at comprehensively assessing the relationships between institutional pillars, entrepreneurship and economic growth.

Design/methodology/approach

Specifically, a comprehensive analysis of 141 empirical publications was carried out using the PRISMA protocol. The reviewed publications were taken from the Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar databases. Thirty-three articles that met the eligibility criteria of quality, relevance and timeliness of the publications were included in the the study.

Findings

Three key lessons emerged from the review. First, it was discovered that entrepreneurship and economic growth are influenced by three institutional pillars at various levels, including the regulatory, cognitive and normative pillars. Second, according to the type of institutional quality, the institutional pillars in a causal framework have a good or negative impact on entrepreneurship. Third, novel enterprise creation, self-employment, citizen employment, poverty alleviation, radical innovation, formalization of the informal sector, promotion of competition in existing and new markets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the emergence of new business models that significantly improve quality of life.

Originality/value

The study proposes a conceptual framework for further exploring this important relationship based on solid empirical evidence. By providing a theoretically grounded framework, the paper fills the gaps in the literature and helps to clarify the relationship between institutional foundations, entrepreneurship and economic progress.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-2101

Keywords

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