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This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

As one of the world's most valuable traded commodities, the market for coffee beans has grown enormously in recent years. The paper aims on analyzing the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Turkish coffee bean imports from two important sources in South America: Brazil and Colombia.

Data collected in this paper through reliable channels include nominal import value, exchange rate, production of total industry, etc. Independent and dependent variables are obtained through conversion. Since the nonlinearly adjusted exchange rate differs significantly from the linearly adjusted one for the export trade of Brazilian coffee beans, this paper develops the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL frameworks and demonstrates their application through asymmetric cointegration and error correction models.

The results of this paper show that imports of Brazilian coffee bean exhibit a more dramatic asymmetry compared to Colombia's coffee bean imports. The results of this study contribute to the import trade of non-oil commodities in developing countries, particularly Brazil, and enrich the existing literature on nonlinear exchange rate adjustments.

The export of Colombian coffee beans is not as old as Brazil, and it was not until much later that Colombia began to export coffee beans to the rest of the world.

The present study is an addition to the literature of agricultural trade. The authors analyze the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Turkish coffee bean imports from two important sources in South America: Brazil and Colombia. Different from the current mainstream research on oil commodity trade, this paper focuses on international trade from the perspective of coffee beans, which can enlighten the practice in this field.

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

This study examines the impact of China's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Africa's global value chain (GVC) participation and economic upgrading.

The study covered 48 African countries, cutting across the western, eastern, central, southern and northern subregions to cover the heterogeneity of the continent. The study adopted feasible generalized least squares panel VAR-Granger causality Wald test and system generalized methods of moments techniques for estimation.

Overall, China's FDI to Africa and US-Africa trade have a linear relationship with Africa's GVC involvement and economic upgrading. The findings suggest that although China-Africa trade has a positive impact on GVC engagement and upgrading, the marginal effect decreases in the face of US-Africa and EU-Africa trade.

This study provides new evidence on the impact of China's FDI and trade on African economies' GVC participation and economic upgrading. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically explore the effects of China's FDI and trade on Africa's GVC integration and economic upgrading as well as from the perspectives of backward and forward GVC participation. Furthermore, the study empirically examines whether the effects of Africa's economic cooperation with China relative to its GVC engagement differ from those of Europe (EU) and the US via a comparative regression.

COVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the impact of the reduction in economic activity on the economy-wide variables so that appropriate steps can be taken. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various sectors of the Indian economy to this dual shock.

The eight-sector open economy general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been simulated to evaluate the sector-specific effects of a fall in economic activity due to COVID-19. This model uses an economy-wide accounting framework to quantify the impact of a shock on the given equilibrium economy and report the post-simulation new equilibrium values.

The empirical results state that welfare for the Indian economy falls to the tune of 7.70% due to output shock. Because of demand–supply linkages, it also impacts the inter- and intra-industry flows, demand for factors of production and imports. There is a momentous fall in the demand for factor endowments from all sectors. Among those, the trade-hotel-transport and manufacturing sectors are in the first two positions from the top. The study recommends an immediate revival of the manufacturing and trade-hotel-transport sectors to get the Indian economy back on track.

The present study has modified the existing GTAP model accounting framework through unemployment and output closures to account for the impact of change in sectoral output due to COVID-19 on the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables.

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment.

The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index.

This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant.

Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.

This study aims to investigate the public deficit issue by contrasting conventional and Islamic views encompassing the paradigm, technical base, orientation and consequence detailed in nine discussions, which are rarely investigated in the research. There is a predisposition that contemporary Muslim scholars discuss the public deficit as well as the private sector perspective, which is used in the conventional conception, without riba as a primary feature.

The paper develops a comparative approach that derives two perspectives from the available literature using the qualitative method under the critical thinking method. It was drawn up in detail on how the paradigm and its related budgeting process contribute to public deficits, mainly in government institutions.

The paper reveals a prominent difference in public deficit in the Islamic view from a conventional perspective. From 9 points of comparison, the analysis covers 18 discussion that differentiates between private and public area criticism seems to overlap. The foundation giving a unique perspective in Islam toward public deficit is the concept of ownership that differs from capitalism, mainly the function of public spending is to distribute the wealth among people not for economic growth. The Islamic Government spent for public purposes based on cash-basis budgeting. The budgeting system in Islamic public spending is founded on treasure availability.

The paper uses a qualitative method that cannot empirically snapshot the actual or factual condition, in which subjectivity plays a plausible role. Furthermore, there is no actual sample (best practices) of the concept to be examined.

The research encompasses overlap between Islamic and conventional perspectives, including public and private issues regarding public deficits. The main beneficiary of the paper is a policymaker, including academicians or practitioners who are appropriate to use the concept in their circumstances.

The study is a pioneering study in public deficit comprehensively comparing conventional and Islamic perspectives and drawing up conceptual and technical aspects.

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.