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At the end of the 1970s, the Chinese government enacted the one-child policy; now the one-child successively enters into the labor market and reaches the age for marriage and childbirth. The floating population group of China’s interior regions also experiences the heterogeneity changes. The purpose of this paper is to analyses the reasons for the difference of family migration between one-child and non-only child using the binary logit regression model – from the three aspects of individual characteristics, family endowment and institutional factors were investigated.

Family migration or individual migration of the floating population is the dichotomous dependent variable and therefore the binomial logistic regression analysis model is selected.

It is found that the tendency of one-child family migration is significantly higher than that of non-only child. The main reason is that the one-child has obvious advantages in terms of individual characteristics, family endowment and institutional factors.

The previous researches on family migration: first, the previous researches mainly analyzed the impact of the human capital and family income on the family migration from the perspective of economics and neglected the discussion on the family structure, life cycle, family level factors and Hukou’s limitation; second, most researches considered the migration as a whole. In fact, the migration population is no longer a highly homogeneous group and gradually become diversified.

Facing a high birth rate, a falling mortality rate, and inconsistent policies on family planning from the 1950s to the early 1970s, the People's Republic of China (PRC) launched its widely known one‐child policy in 1979. The intention was to restrict population growth by reducing fertility through family planning and thereby to conserve the nation's resources to advance economic development. The effectiveness of the one‐child policy has varied greatly because policy regulations are differentially carried out by officials of provinces, municipalities, counties, communes, and minority regions. Generally speaking, the state policy has had greater acceptance in urban areas but is far less rigidly enforced by local officials in rural areas and for certain national minorities, which can have a second child under certain circumstances (Chow and Chen, 1994).

During the early 1970s, faced with the serious demographic situation, China began to fully implement the policy of family planning in urban and rural regions. Nowadays, the problems of pension and medical care for aged parents confronted by the first generation of the one‐child family have begun to gradually appear. Meanwhile, China's population and the family planning are also faced with some problems that are difficult to solve, including unbalanced fertility rate of urban and rural population, the gender imbalance, the difficulty of the risk diversification in a one‐child family, as well as the profound contradiction between the stability of the family planning policy and the drive of administrative measures. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the integrated‐scheduled life security system of the one‐child family in urban and rural areas, in order to overcome the problems and to promote the transformation of the family planning policy. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the life security system for China's one‐child families.

The life security system for the one‐child family proposed by this paper consists of three issues: the basic security based on the level of social security, the additional security of the policy insurance and the supplementary security of the commercial insurance. The paper begins with the history of the family planning policy in the first section and then go through some relevant articles regarding complementary measures such as maternity insurance, rural endowment insurance that only focused on one aspect of issues associated with the family planning. In section three, four typical problems are listed for the purpose of following discussion of corresponding solutions which are full of deficiency in section four. In part five, the integrated planning of the life security system for Chinese one‐child family is elaborated with risk and fund management. In the last part, we conclude that the family planning policy maintains stable, whereas measures to be taken are adjusted along with changeable new problems.

The policy insurance plays an increasingly important role in dealing with the life security of older people in one‐child families. It may be better to promote the kind of insurance.

The paper comprehensively discusses the life security system for Chinese families in compliance with the family planning policy.

This paper shows how a shorter fecundity horizon for females (a biological constraint) leads to age and educational disparities between husbands and wives. Empirical support is based on data from a natural experiment commencing before and ending after China’s 1980 one-child law. The results indicate that fertility in China declined by about 1.2–1.4 births per woman as a result of China’s anti-natalist policies. Concomitantly spousal age and educational differences narrowed by approximately 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.6 years, respectively. These decreases in the typical husband’s age and educational advantages are important in explaining the division of labor in the home, often given as a cause for the gender wage gap. Indeed, as fertility declined, which has been the historical trend in most developed countries, husband-wife age and educational differences diminished leading to less division of labor in the home and a smaller gender wage disparity. Unlike other models of division of labor in the home which rely on innately endogenous factors, this paper’s theory is based on an exogenous biological constraint.

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.

China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.

Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.

The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.

The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.