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This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth.

As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution.

The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth.

The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the oil price–bank risk nexus by considering the heterogeneity of bank characters.

This paper empirically tests the effect of oil price movements on bank credit risk by using a sample of 279 banks in the Middle East and North Africa countries from 2011 to 2017.

Authors find robust evidence that the credit risk of bank loan portfolios is negatively associated with increased oil prices. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of asset quality improvement brought about by rising oil prices is more salient in conventional banks, and banks with small size, low liquidity and whose funding source relies on customers’ deposits.

The results favor the diversification of bank funding sources, the improvement of a country’s financial development, the adoption of explicit deposit insurance and macroprudential policies, such as countercyclical liquidity buffers, to weaken the adverse impact of oil prices declines.

The present paper enriches the literature of oil price–bank risk nexus by analyzing the heterogeneity of bank characters and advances our knowledge on the determined factors of bank riskiness and vulnerability.

This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4.

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method is used to capture the potential asymmetric relationship among oil prices and the exchange rate. Frequency domain spectral Granger causality test is also applied to investigate the causal linkage between the two variables. The wavelet coherence is applied to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and frequency domains.

The empirical results reveal evidence of long-run asymmetric effects of oil price on Algeria’s real effective exchange rate (REER), implying that an increase in oil price causes a real exchange rate to appreciate, while a decrease in oil price leads to a real exchange rate to depreciate. More specifically, it is found that the impact of negative oil price shocks is higher than the one associated with positive shocks. The spectral Granger causality results further indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from oil price to REER in both medium and long run. The wavelet coherence findings provide evidence of some co-movement between the REER and oil price and point out that the oil price is leading real exchange rate in the medium and long terms.

This study contributes to the literature by investigating the asymmetric impact and the time domain causal linkage between oil price fluctuations and real exchange rate in Algeria.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of corruption on investment and growth in 15 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries during the period 1985-2013. The authors used the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) corruption index and conducted a panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality procedure to detect the dynamic relationships between the variables. Results indicate that corruption is a serious hurdle to economic growth in MENA countries since it affects investment activities and foreign direct investment inflows. In this case, policymakers have to implement effective anti-corruption strategies to avoid the epidemic of corruption.

The authors used the ICRG corruption index and conducted a panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality procedure to detect the dynamic relationships between the variables.

The main findings of this paper show that corruption is a serious hurdle to economic growth in MENA countries since it affects investment activities and foreign direct investment inflows. In this case, policymakers have to implement effective anti-corruption strategies to avoid the epidemic of corruption.

Unfortunately, in this study the authors did not use institutional variables to see their role and to judge whether governments should enhance the quality of institution and improve the corporate governance. This would be an opportunity to expand the sample and to conduct a new research in the near future to assess the real costs of corruption in the MENA region.

Governments and policymakers need to apprehend and admit that corruption is an important issue that deters foreign direct investment and threats the economic development and growth. Corruption can also deteriorate the infrastructure and increase the cost of doing business for both government and private sector which in turn will lower the growth (Tanzi and Doovi, 1997). It is worth recalling that during the past five years, a large part of the MENA region has witnessed multiple social upheavals. Hence, corruption must be tackled effectively and coherently to avoid further social tensions. It is the proper time to take serious steps and strict policy actions within a zero-tolerance framework to fight corruption and its widespread. New rules, laws, and anti-corruption procedures are among the most important initiatives that governments should implement. The governments should also increase the public awareness of the multiple drawbacks of corruption by publishing official reports and data on the most corrupted sector in the country. In this case, media will have a key role to diffuse the necessary information.

While most of the previous studies have employed GMM and OLS techniques, the authors opt a panel vector error correction model and cointegration technique to detect causality between the variables used in the model for the present study.

Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade.

The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries.

The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries.

One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies.

Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil.

The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary.

While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.

The authors empirically aim to study the implications of uncertainty generated by oil price volatility on some key macroeconomic variables, including production, exchange rates and interest rates, of both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Using a block exogeneity structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model that mutes the effects of domestic variables on global factors and that is suitable for small open economies because of significant differences in the responses of domestic production in oil-importing countries will most likely decrease through reducing planning horizons, postponing investment projects and relocating resources more inefficiently.

The authors integrated into the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model the block exogeneity feature since all the countries in this study are small open economies that cannot influence the global economic variables. The block exogeneity feature imposes the restriction that the domestic variables have neither a contemporaneous nor a lagged impact on the global variables. This model has eight variables: oil price volatility, world demand and federal funds rate as the global variables; and domestic production, monetary aggregate, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate as domestic variables. The authors assemble the data for 12 developing countries for which the necessary data for the analysis are available: six oil exporting countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Colombia) and six oil importing countries (Turkey, India, Philippines, Poland, South Africa and Indonesia).

The results point out significant differences in the responses of macroeconomic variables to oil price volatility shocks between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the local currencies of these countries depreciate due to concerns about possible current account worsening. In response to the shock, domestic interest rates are reduced so as to alleviate the negative exposure of the shock on domestic economic activity. While domestic production in some oil-exporting countries (i.e. Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran) increases during oil price uncertainty; in some other countries (i.e. Mexico, Kazakhstan and Colombia), domestic production decreases.

Several components of the study contribute to its novelty. One of them is the period under consideration. The time frame that encompasses the most significant geopolitical and financial events, such as the Middle East Spring and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The research was conducted using the block-exogeneity SVAR model, which includes 12 oil exporting and importing developing countries. With this model, the global dynamics, particularly the energy market, that these nations may influence and are influenced by, i.e. global and nonglobal factors can be constrained. This makes it easy to determine the various effects prices have on macroeconomic variables.

1. Oil prices and volatility still matter to the global economy

2. Monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to oil price volatility create uncertainty and impede investment activity

3. The response of macroeconomic variables to volatility shocks in oil prices varies across oil importers and exporters

4. Interest rates help stabilize production in oil-importing economies that have well-functioning financial markets

Oil prices and volatility still matter to the global economy

Monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to oil price volatility create uncertainty and impede investment activity

The response of macroeconomic variables to volatility shocks in oil prices varies across oil importers and exporters

Interest rates help stabilize production in oil-importing economies that have well-functioning financial markets

This paper aims to examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on the stock market returns of ten oil importing and exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports.

This paper intuitively applies the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean vector autoregression (VAR) model using weekly data over the period January 2001-February 2014.

The findings indicate that oil uncertainty matters in the determination of real stock returns. There is a negative and significant relationship between oil price uncertainty and real stock returns in all countries in the sample. The influence of oil price risk is more serious in those economies that depend heavily on oil revenues to grow.

The findings have important implications. For instance, managers should be aware of the linkages between oil price uncertainty and equity returns when they use oil to hedge and diversify equities, particularly in economies where oil is important for economic growth. The policymakers in oil importing countries should encourage companies to improve efficiency in the usage of energy and to resort to alternative sources to avoid fluctuations in earnings and equity prices. In the countries that heavily depend on oil efforts should focus on diversifying the domestic economy away from oil to protect against oil price fluctuations.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the influence of oil price uncertainty in the MENA region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. The empirical findings of the paper have valuable policy implications for investors, market participants and policymakers.

This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries, during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, after controlling for fundamentals-driven co-movements.

To examine the volatility spillover among oil market and stock markets, the conditional variance of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model includes three variables: oil returns, US index returns, and the respective individual market returns of 22 oil-importing and exporting countries. The authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of oil market and each stock index. Also, the authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of US market and each stock index.

The estimation of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model for VIX, oil market and 23 stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries suggests the volatility spillover of American investor sentiment to stock market and oil market returns. To capture the pure contagion effects between oil market and stock markets, the authors estimate the forecasting errors of time-varying parameter using the Kalman independently of macroeconomic fundamentals factors. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil price returns and stock indices returns. The authors show a sharp increase in time-varying correlation coefficients during the oil crisis and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, which provides strong evidence of herding contagion between oil market and stock markets during the turmoil period.

This paper makes an original contribution in identifying the behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and exporting countries especially during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009. Specifically, the authors consider investor sentiment and herding bias to explain the volatility transmission between oil and stock market returns.

If the events of late 1973 have been the catalyst for an accelerated transition from the age of low‐cost oil, they have also demonstrated, on the one hand, the feasibility of demarketing as an advantageous optional strategy for the oil‐exporting countries and, on the other, the inevitability of demarketing as an appropriate strategy to cope with the new situation in the oil‐importing countries. Writing in 1971, Kotler and Levy asserted that the marketer's task is not blindly to seek increases in sales; rather, it is “to shape demand to conform with long‐run objectives”, including “that aspect of marketing that deals with discouraging customers in general or a certain class of customers in particular on either a temporary or a permanent basis”, i.e., demarketing. Kotler and Levy could not have hoped for a better situation to prove the soundness of their ideas than the present oil crisis.

This study aims to examine the dynamic bidirectional causality between oil price (OIL) and stock market indexes in net oil-exporting (Russia) and net oil-importing (China) countries.

The authors use monthly data for the period starting from October 1995 to October 2021. In this study, the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality approach introduced by Balcilar et al. (2010) and the probit regression model are performed in order to identify the bidirectional causality.

The results show that the causal periods mainly occur during economic, financial and health crises. For oil-exporting country, the results suggest that any increase (decrease) in the OIL leads to an appreciation (depreciation) in the stock market index. The effect of the stock market on OIL is more relevant for the oil-importing country than that for the oil-exporting one. The COVID-19 consequences are demonstrated in the impact of oil on the Russian stock market. The probit regression shows that the US financial instabilities increase the probability of causality between OIL and stock market indexes in Russia and China.

The dynamic relationship between the variables must be taken into account in investment decisions. As financial instabilities in the USA drive the relationship between oil and stocks, investors should consider geopolitical, economic and financial elements when constructing their portfolios. Shareholders are required to include other assets in their portfolios since oil–stock relationship is highly risky.

This study provides further evidence of the bidirectional oil–stock causal link. Additionally, it examines the impact of financial instabilities on the probability that the OIL and the stock market index cause each other through the Granger effect.