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Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Amanjot Singh

This study examines the value implications of oil price uncertainty for investors in diversified firms using a sample of 922 USA firms from 2001 to 2019.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the value implications of oil price uncertainty for investors in diversified firms using a sample of 922 USA firms from 2001 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

Our study employs a panel dataset to examine the value implications of oil price uncertainty for diversified firm investors. We consider several alternative specifications to account for unobserved factors and measurement errors that could potentially bias our results. In particular, we use alternative measures of the excess value of diversified firms and oil price uncertainty, additional control variables, fixed-effects models, the Oster test, impact threshold for confounding variable (ITCV) analysis, two-stage least square instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) analysis and the system-GMM model.

Findings

We find that the excess value of diversified firms, relative to a benchmark portfolio of single-segment firms, increases with high oil price uncertainty. The impact of oil price uncertainty is asymmetric, as corporate diversification is value-increasing for diversified firm investors only when the volatility is due to positive oil price changes and amidst supply-driven oil price shocks. The excess value increases irrespective of diversified firms’ financial constraints and oil usage. Diversified firms become conservative in their internal capital allocations with high oil price uncertainty. Such conservatism is value-increasing for diversified firm investors, as it supports higher performance in response to oil price uncertainty.

Originality/value

Our study has three important implications: first, they are relevant to investors in understanding the portfolio value implications of oil price uncertainty. Second, they are helpful for firm managers while comprehending the value-relevant implications of internal capital allocations. Finally, our findings are policy relevant in the context of the future of diversified firms in developed markets.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 September 2023

Samir Belkhaoui

The aim of this paper is to evaluate empirically the impact of oil price fluctuations on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in oil-importing…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to evaluate empirically the impact of oil price fluctuations on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in oil-importing MENA countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the newly developed panel autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) approach in order to address any potential endogeneity between research variables.

Findings

The empirical results show a unidirectional causality in the long run from oil price to both economic growth and banking sector development for oil-importing countries. Also, banking sector development not only leads directly to economic growth but also can play a moderator role in the oil price—economic growth nexus.

Research limitations/implications

The study has two principal limitations. On the one hand, this study was conducted in a relatively limited sample of countries. On the other hand, the study did not consider others indicators for banking sector development and others macroeconomic variables.

Practical implications

The results found have imperative implications for banks' managers, regulators and researchers. Bank managers should be more concerned with the negative repercussions of oil price fluctuations on the development of their banks. The regulatory authorities must emphasize policies and strategies to further strengthen their banking sector in order to alleviate the negative influence of oil price shocks on economic growth. Researchers focused on finance-growth nexus must take into account the potential influence of oil price shocks.

Originality/value

The developed conceptual model allows examining to what extent the oil price fluctuations might affect the relationship between economic growth and banking sector development. This effect is neither evaluated nor clarified in the relevant literature.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Hanan Naser, Fatima Al-aali, Yomna Abdulla and Rabab Ebrahim

Over the last decade, investments in green energy companies have witnessed noticeable growth rates. However, the glacial pace of the world economic restoration due to COVID-19…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last decade, investments in green energy companies have witnessed noticeable growth rates. However, the glacial pace of the world economic restoration due to COVID-19 pandemic placed a high degree of uncertainty over this market. Therefore, this study investigates the short- and long-term relationships between COVID-19 new cases and WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX) using daily data over the period from January 23, 2020 to February 1, 2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilize an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing estimation technique.

Findings

The results show a significant positive impact of COVID-19 new cases on the returns of NEX index in the short run, whereas it has a significant negative impact in the long run. It is also found that the S&P Global Clean Energy Index has a significant positive impact on the returns of NEX index. Although oil has an influential effect on stock returns, the results show insignificant impact.

Practical implications

Governments have the chance to flip this trend by including investment in green energy in their economic growth stimulation policies. Governments should highlight the fundamental advantages of investing in this type of energy such as creating job vacancies while reducing emissions and promoting innovation.

Originality/value

First, as far as the authors are aware, the authors are the first to examine the effect of oil prices on clean energy stocks during COVID-19. Second, the authors contribute to studies on the relationship between oil prices and renewable energy. Third, the authors add to the emerging strand of literature on the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors of the economy. Fourth, the findings of the paper can add to the growing literature on sustainable development goals, in specific the papers related to energy sustainability.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

Muhammad Tariq Khan, Abdul Rashid, Mushtaq Hussain Khan, Asif Zaman and Shahid Ali

This paper aims to examine the effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment of Islamic stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment of Islamic stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a panel data set that covers 398 listed Islamic stocks from seven major Asia Pacific countries over the period of five years from 2017 to 2021, yielding 1,990 observations. Specifically, this paper investigates the said association by combining the real options theory regarding investment and the panel data-based econometric method that captures the dynamic relationship, the generalized method of moments estimators.

Findings

The findings show that the relationship between the oil price volatility and corporate investment of Islamic stocks is significant and nonlinear in nature, suggesting the presence of both the growth options and the waiting options. Overall, the results reveal that corporate investment of Islamic stocks is hindered during the unprecedented corona crash, when oil price increases at exponential rates.

Practical implications

The findings suggest that considering the information caused by unprecedented events like the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for investment decisions of Islamic stocks. Therefore, policymakers and regulators should incorporate the impact of oil price uncertainties caused by unprecedented events like the COVID-19 pandemic on firm’s investment expansion and diversification strategies.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to examine the relationship between the investment of Islamic stocks and the oil price uncertainty under compound options theory in top Asian oil-importing countries.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 April 2023

Mohit Ray, Avinash Kumar and Samir K. Srivastava

Despite various consequences for different stakeholders in the mustard ecosystem, India prohibited blending in mustard oil to achieve self-reliance in edible oils and promote…

205

Abstract

Purpose

Despite various consequences for different stakeholders in the mustard ecosystem, India prohibited blending in mustard oil to achieve self-reliance in edible oils and promote consumer health. This paper uncovers the implications of this policy on mustard production, consumption and prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper deploys system dynamics (SD) to model the mustard ecosystem. SD uses simulation modeling to comprehend the nonlinear behavior of complex systems over time utilizing causal-loop and stock-flow diagrams.

Findings

While the mustard price does not vary in the short run, it diverges toward a higher side in the long run due to the changed policy mandate. Surprisingly, due to the predominance of market prices, the policy administered minimum support price (MSP) was found to have a limited influence on mustard prices. Hence, the focus should be on supply augmentation through non-price-based measures like disseminating information to enhance the yield rate of seed production and promoting the adoption of efficient technologies with higher oil conversion efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The paper allows policymakers to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions to mitigate the adverse impacts of policy mandate. It presents a reliable roadmap for policymakers to roll out effective policies.

Originality/value

The paper uncovers the system-level impact of policy on stakeholders and examines the effectiveness of MSP.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 September 2022

Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya

This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National Rupee)) on inflation volatility in India.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models (Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner [BEKK]-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation [DCC]-GARCH) to examine the volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators and strategic commodities on inflation in India. The monthly data are collected from January 2000 till December 2020 for the crude oil price, gold price, interest rate (5-year Indian bond yield), exchange rate (USD/INR) and inflation (wholesale price index [WPI] and consumer price index [CPI]).

Findings

In BEKK-GARCH, the results reveal that crude oil price volatility has a long time spillover effect on inflation (WPI). Furthermore, no significant short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil market to inflation (WPI). However, the short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil to inflation while considering CPI as inflation. Gold price volatility has a bidirectional and negative spillover effect on inflation in the case of WPI. However, there is no price volatility spillover effect from gold to inflation in the case of CPI. The price volatility in the exchange rate also has a negative spillover effect on inflation (but only on CPI). Furthermore, volatility of interest rates has no spillover effect on inflation in WPI or CPI. In DCC-GARCH, a short-term volatility impact from all four macroeconomic indicators to inflation is found. Only crude oil and exchange rate have long-term volatility effect on inflation (CPI).

Practical implications

In an economy, inflation management is an essential task. The findings of the current study can be beneficial in this endeavor. The knowledge of the volatility spillover effect of all the four markets undertaken in the study can be significantly helpful in inflation management, especially for inflation-targeting policy.

Originality/value

It is observed that no other study has addressed this issue. We do not find any other research which studies the volatility spillover effect of gold, crude oil, interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation volatility. The current study is novel with a significant contribution to the vast knowledge in this context.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 March 2023

Ismail Ben Douissa and Tawfik Azrak

This study aims to investigate the existence of bubbles and their contagion effect in crude oil and stock markets of oil-exporting countries Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the existence of bubbles and their contagion effect in crude oil and stock markets of oil-exporting countries Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from 2016 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Generalized Sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and Backward Sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (BSADF) to significantly identify multiple bubbles stock and oil markets with precise dates. Furthermore, the authors check the contagion effect of bubbles between crude oil and GCC stock markets based on the time-varying Granger causality test.

Findings

First, the authors find empirical evidence of downwards bubbles in crude oil prices and in all GCC stock indexes (except the Saudi stock index) during the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Second, the authors do not detect empirical evidence of bubble transmission between crude oil markets and GCC stock markets (except with the Dubai Financial Market index).

Practical implications

The findings of this study would illuminate policymakers not to limit the factors of systematic financial crises in oil-exporting countries to crude oil and to consider factors such as monetary policy and economic diversification measures. This study has also crucial implications for investors. In fact, investors should not ignore the responses of the stock markets to oil price shocks that are heterogeneous across countries when looking for investment opportunities in the GCC region.

Originality/value

The study justifies the changing nature of the bubble contagion effect through the novel implementation of the time-varying Granger causality test to detect whether bubble contagion exists between oil and GCC stock markets and if that does, in which direction.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2023

Aarzoo Sharma, Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah and Freeman Brobbey Owusu

This paper aims to examine the cross-quantile correlation and causality-in-quantiles between green investments and energy commodities during the outbreak of COVID-19. To be…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the cross-quantile correlation and causality-in-quantiles between green investments and energy commodities during the outbreak of COVID-19. To be specific, the authors aim to address the following questions: Is there any distributional predictability among green bonds and energy commodities during COVID-19? Is there exist any directional predictability between green investments and energy commodities during the global pandemic? Can green bonds hedge the risk of energy commodities during a period of the financial crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the nonparametric causality in quantile and cross-quantilogram (CQ) correlation approaches as the estimation techniques to investigate the distributional and directional predictability between green investments and energy commodities respectively using daily spot prices from January 1, 2020, to March 26, 2021. The study uses daily closing price indices S&P Green Bond Index as a representative of the green bond market. In the case of energy commodities, the authors use S&P GSCI Natural Gas Spot, S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot, S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot, S&P GSCI Gas Oil Spot, S&P GSCI Brent Crude Spot, S&P GSCI WTI, OPEC Oil Basket Price, Crude Oil Oman, Crude Oil Dubai Cash, S&P GSCI Heating Oil Spot, S&P Global Clean Energy, US Gulf Coast Kerosene and Los Angeles Low Sulfur CARB Diesel Spot.

Findings

From the CQ correlation results, there exists an overall negative directional predictability between green bonds and natural gas. The authors find that the directional predictability between green bonds and S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot, S&P GSCI Gas Oil Spot, S&P GSCI Brent Crude Spot, S&P GSCI WTI Spot, OPEC Oil Basket Spot, Crude Oil Oman Spot, Crude Oil Dubai Cash Spot, S&P GSCI Heating Oil Spot, US Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price and Los Angeles Low Sulfur CARB Diesel Spot Price is negative during normal market conditions and positive during extreme market conditions. Results from the non-parametric causality in the quantile approach show strong evidence of asymmetry in causality across quantiles and strong variations across markets.

Practical implications

The quantile time-varying dependence and predictability results documented in this paper can help market participants with different investment targets and horizons adopt better hedging strategies and portfolio diversification to aid optimal policy measures during volatile market conditions.

Social implications

The outcome of this study will promote awareness regarding the environment and also increase investor’s participation in the green bond market. Further, it allows corporate institutions to fulfill their social commitment through the issuance of green bonds.

Originality/value

This paper differs from these previous studies in several aspects. First, the authors have included a wide range of energy commodities, comprising three green bond indices and 14 energy commodity indices. Second, the authors have explored the dependency between the two markets, particularly during COVID-19 pandemic. Third, the authors have applied CQ and causality-in-quantile methods on the given data set. Since the market of green and sustainable finance is growing drastically and the world is transmitting toward environment-friendly practices, it is essential and vital to understand the impact of green bonds on other financial markets. In this regard, the study contributes to the literature by documenting an in-depth connectedness between green bonds and crude oil, natural gas, petrol, kerosene, diesel, crude, heating oil, biofuels and other energy commodities.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Sakiru Adebola Solarin, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Veli Yilanci

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

At the empirical stage, the Fourier-augmented vector autoregression approach has been used.

Findings

According to the empirical results, the response of the clean energy stocks to the feverish sentiment, lockdown stringency, oil volatility, dirty assets, and monetary policy dies out within a short period of time. In addition, the authors find that there is a unidirectional causality from the feverish sentiment index and the lockdown stringency index to the clean energy stock returns; and from the monetary policy to the clean energy stocks. At the same time, there is a bidirectional causality between the lockdown stringency index and the feverish sentiment index. The empirical findings can be helpful to both practitioners and policy-makers.

Originality/value

Among the COVID-19 variables used in this study is a new feverish sentiment index, which has been constructed using principal component analysis. The importance of the feverish sentiment index is that it allows us to examine the impact of the aggregate level of fear in the economy on clean energy stocks.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

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