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This study aims to investigate the dynamics between exogenous shocks, financial stress and economic performance in the USA from January 1995 to August 2023.

Granger-causality tests and impulse response analyses are used to examine causal relationships and dynamic responses among crude oil prices, real M2 money supply, financial stress and key economic indicators.

This study reveals a significant correlation between elevated financial stress and reduced real output, along with disruptions in the labor market, potentially leading to economic recessionary trends. Failure to address these challenges could perpetuate labor market difficulties, weaken capital accumulation within the loanable funds market and ultimately hinder long-term economic growth prospects in the USA.

This study offers insights for policymakers to mitigate financial stress. Recommendations include enhancing financial surveillance, strengthening regulatory frameworks, promoting economic diversification and implementing countercyclical policies to stabilize the economy and support labor markets. In addition, proactive monitoring of financial stress indicators can serve as early warning signals, aiding in timely interventions and effective risk management strategies.

This research provides a comprehensive analysis of how the financial stress index (FSI) mediates the effects of external shocks on the US economy, addressing a gap in existing literature. The integration of the FSI into the analysis enhances the understanding of the transmission channels through which external shocks influence the economy.

We examined the dynamic volatility connectedness and diversification strategies among US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and green finance indices.

The DCC-GARCH dynamic connectedness framework and he DCC-GARCH t-copula model were employed in this study.

Using daily data from 2,206 observations spanning from 2 January 2015 to 31 January 2023 this paper presents the following findings: (1) cross-market spillovers exhibited a high correlation and significant fluctuations, particularly during extreme events; (2) our analysis confirmed that REIT acted as net receivers from other green indices, with the S&P North America Large-MidCap Carbon Efficient Index dominating the in-network volatility spillover; (3) this observation suggests asymmetric spillovers between the two markets and (4) a portfolio analysis was conducted using the DCC-GARCH t-copula framework to estimate hedging ratios and portfolio weights for these indices. When REIT and the Dow Jones US Select ESG REIT Index were simultaneously added to a risk-hedged portfolio, our findings indicated that no risk-hedging effect could be achieved. Moreover, the cost and performance of hedging green assets using REIT were found to be comparable.

We first examined the dynamic volatility connectedness and diversification strategies among US REITs and green finance indices. The outcomes of this study carry practical implications for market participants.

This study presents time-series data estimations on the association between the indicators of institutional environment and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in India utilizing a comprehensive data set from 1996 to 2021.

The study employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model. The asymmetric ARDL framework evaluates the existence of cointegration among the factors under study and highlights the underlying nonlinear effects that may exist in the long and short run.

The significance of coefficients of negative shock to “control of corruption” and positive shock to “rule of law” is greater when compared to “government effectiveness, regulatory quality, political stability/absence of violence.” The empirical outcomes suggest the positive influence of rule of law, political stability and government effectiveness on FDI inflows. A high “regulatory quality” is observed to deter foreign investment. The “voice and accountability” index and negative shocks to the “rule of law” are exhibited to have no substantial impact on the amount of FDI that the country receives.

This study empirically examines the institutional determinants of FDI in India for a comprehensive period of 1996–2021. The study's findings imply that quality of the institutional environment has a significant bearing on India's inward FDI.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0375

This study examines the contribution of urban development to Vietnam's economic progress over the period 1986–2020. The study uses an augmented Solow framework, where urbanization is included as a shift variable in addition to capital per worker and accounts for structural breaks. It examines the cointegration and the long-run and short-run effects of urban development from four different cases of cointegration (constant, restricted constant, restricted trend and trend options), with each case accounting for the effect of a significant structural break. Also, the study provides causality nexus to check the presence of urbanization-led growth hypothesis. From the results, we note a long-run positive effect of urbanization on economic growth, but no short-run effects. In all cases, a 1% increase in population results in 0.8–0.9 increase of output, hence supporting a positive and momentous effect of urbanization over the long-term. We note a significant positive effect of a single structural break period (1991), which is a period of major shift towards economic progress. We note bidirectional causality between capital and output and a unidirectional causality from output and capital to urbanization. The former suggests a mutually reinforcing effect of capital accumulation and economic growth, and the latter indicates that urban development necessitates economic growth and capital accumulation. The findings derived from this study provide further impetus for urban development and urban policies and consider urbanization as a critical source of economic growth for Vietnam.

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

The Eastern Mediterranean countries exhibit diversity in religion, culture, politics, and economy, amid rapid and dynamic regional developments shaped by global polarization and the international security landscape, rendering future prognostications challenging. This chapter delves into the realms of oil and natural gas production, the influx of multinational corporations, water boundaries, and renewable energy vis-à-vis fossil fuels in the Eastern Mediterranean, elucidating the realities of cooperation and competition within the region. Analysis of cooperation and competition dynamics is imperative for comprehending the tensions among states. Enhanced cooperation between states may lead to mutual benefits, such as increased oil and gas prices favoring their partnership, while any escalation in competition can swiftly be perceived as a threat, exacerbating tensions. The desirability of such cooperation or competition in the international political economy remains subject to ongoing debate.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a shock to the food supply chain without modern precedent. Challenges in production, manufacturing, distribution and retailing led to the highest rates of food price inflation in the US since the 1970s. The major goal of this paper is to describe statistically the impact of the pandemic of food price inflation and volatility in the US and to discuss implications for industry and for policymakers.

We use Bureau of Labor Statistics data to investigate food prices in the US, 2020–2021. We apply 16 statistical approaches to measure price changes and volatility and three regression approaches to measure counterfactuals of food prices, had the pandemic not occurred.

Food price inflation and volatility increased substantially during the early months of the pandemic, with a great deal of heterogeneity across food products and geographic regions. Food price inflation was most pronounced for meats, and contrary to expectations, highest in the western US Forecasting approaches demonstrate that grocery prices were about 7% higher than they would have been without the pandemic as of the end of 2021.

The research on COVID-19 and the food system remains in its nascent stage. As findings on food loss and waste, employment and wages, food insecurity and more proliferate, it is vital to understand how food prices were connected to these phenomena and affected. We also motivate several ideas for future work.

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover structures between Bitcoin, Fintech stocks and Asian-Pacific equity markets over time and during different market conditions, and their implications for portfolio management.

We use Time-varying parameter vector autoregressive and quantile frequency connectedness approach models for the connectedness framework, in conjunction with Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectivity approach. Additionally, we use the minimum connectedness portfolio model to highlight implications for portfolio management.

Regarding the uncertainty of the whole system, we show a small contribution from Bitcoin and Fintech, with a higher contribution from the four Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand). The quantile and frequency analyses also demonstrate that the link among assets is symmetric, with short-term spillovers having the largest influence. Finally, Bitcoins and Fintech stocks are excellent diversification and hedging instruments for Asian equity investors.

There is an instantaneous, symmetric and dynamic return and volatility spillover between Asian stock markets, Fintech and Bitcoin. This conclusion should be considered by investors and portfolio managers when creating risk diversification strategies, as well as by policymakers when implementing their financial stability policies.

The study’s major contribution is to analyze the volatility spillover between Bitcoin, Fintech and Asian stock markets, which is dynamic, symmetric and immediate.

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) stands as a significant player in the hydrocarbon landscape of the Middle East, necessitating an in-depth analysis of its role in the exportation process to Turkey and Mediterranean ports, thereby fostering economic and political ties and projecting toward the future. Situated as a semi-autonomous entity in northern Iraq, the Kurdistan Region boasts abundant natural gas resources, attracting interest from Russian firms and Turkish stakeholders. However, Iran’s influence in Iraq and the wider region poses a regional threat to the Kurdistan Region’s natural resources. This chapter meticulously examines the oil and gas blocks within the Kurdistan Region amidst the backdrop of transformative global energy market shifts, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Through this lens, it seeks to delineate the Kurdistan Region’s political and economic positioning within the evolving regional order.