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Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Muhammad Sajid, Amanat Ali, Sareer Ahmad, Nikhil Chandra Shil and Izaz Arshad

This study empirically examines the impact of some domestic as well as global factors such as trade openness (TO), money supply (MS), exchange rate, global oil prices (GOPs) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically examines the impact of some domestic as well as global factors such as trade openness (TO), money supply (MS), exchange rate, global oil prices (GOPs) and interest rate (IR) on inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study deploys a quantitative method considering 30 years of data (1991–2020) from four South Asian countries, namely, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. To determine the potential impact of different factors on inflation, this study applies the panel analysis of the system generalized method of moments (SGMM).

Findings

This study empirically finds that TO, MS, exchange rate and GOPs have a positive impact on inflation, while IR and the structural adjustment program (SAP) have a negative impact on inflation. Out of the various determinants considered in this study, TO, exchange rate and the SAP are insignificant, while the rest of the variables are significant and consistent with previous studies.

Practical implications

This study informs policymakers about maintaining price stability and fostering economic growth in South Asian nations. It breaks new ground as the first empirical examination of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s SAP impact on inflation in the region.

Originality/value

This study tries to find out whether the SAP of the IMF is responsible for inflation in South Asian countries. It gives renewed attention to the causality of inflation from the perspective of countries receiving loans from donors, especially the IMF.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2022

Rafiq Ahmed, Hubert Visas and Jabbar Ul-haq

This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests were used for unit-root testing, whereas the johansen-juselius test was used for cointegration. For the short-run, the error correction model is used and the robustness of the model is checked using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS). The cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM of Squares tests were used to check the stability of the model, while parameter instability was confirmed by the Chow breakpoint test. Finally, the impulse response function was used for causality.

Findings

According to the findings, rising oil prices, among other things, have an impact on housing prices. Inflation is the single most important factor affecting not only the housing sector but also the entire economy. Lending and exchange rates have a significant impact on housing prices as well. The FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that the OLS results are robust. According to the variance decomposition model, housing prices and oil prices are bidirectionally related. The Government of Pakistan must develop a housing policy on a regular basis to develop the country’s urban housing supply and demand.

Practical implications

It is suggested that in Pakistan, the rising oil prices is a problem for the housing prices as well as many other sectors. The government needs to explore alternative ways of energy generation rather than the heavy reliance on imported oil.

Originality/value

Pakistan has been experiencing rising oil prices and housing prices with the rapid urbanisation and rural–urban migration. The contribution to the literature is that neither attempt (as to the best of the authors’ knowledge) has been made to check the impact of rising oil prices on housing sector development in Pakistan.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2023

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Souha Boutouria

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The authors also compare the hedging performance of in-sample and out-of-sample analyses.

Design/methodology/approach

For the modeling purpose, the authors combine the GARCH-BEKK model with the machine learning approach to predict the transmission of shocks between the financial markets and the oil market. The authors also examine the hedging performance in order to obtain well-diversified portfolios under both Financial Stress cases, using a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) model.

Findings

According to the results, the in-sample analysis shows that investors can use oil to hedge stock markets under positive Financial Stress. In addition, the authors prove that oil hedging is ineffective in reducing market risks for bond markets. The out-of-sample results demonstrate the ability of hedging effectiveness to minimize portfolio risk during the recent pandemic in both Financial Stress cases. Interestingly, hedgers will have a more efficient hedging performance in the stock and oil market in the case of positive (negative) Financial Stress. The findings seem to be confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test, suggesting that including the negative (positive) Financial Stress in the hedging strategy displays better out-of-sample performance than the in-sample model.

Originality/value

This study improves the understanding of the whole sample and positive (negative) Financial Stress estimates and forecasts of hedge effectiveness for both the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates. A portfolio strategy based on transmission shock prediction provides diversification benefits.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Jeunesse Noumga, Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa and Jean Gaston Tamba

This research paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of income and price on household consumption of kerosene in Cameroon.

Abstract

Purpose

This research paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of income and price on household consumption of kerosene in Cameroon.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach consists of testing for stationarity using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Andrews and Zivot tests, determining cointegration using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) test approach and finally examining asymmetry using the Wald test.

Findings

Results of the stationarity tests reveal that variables are all integrated of order less than two I(2). The NARDL approach indicates that the (positive and negative) income shock and the positive price boom negatively influence consumption in the long- and short-run. The same is true for the negative price shock, but the latter remains insignificant. Furthermore, the Wald test carried out in the study confirms that the cumulative effects of the positive and negative income and price shocks are asymmetric.

Originality/value

The increase in the price of kerosene due to the lifting of subsidies has led to a decrease in household consumption and an unfortunate increase in the loss of tree cover in Cameroon. According to the results, this phenomenon will persist even if the price is reduced. Actions aimed at reducing its production at the expense of liquefied petroleum gas, electricity and renewable energy should be encouraged to limit the loss of vegetation cover. Thus, this study could contribute to solving the problem of deforestation and desertification in Cameroon.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Amira Said and Chokri Ouerfelli

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.

Design/methodology/approach

DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.

Findings

The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.

Originality/value

Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Tamara Apostolou, Ioannis N. Lagoudis and Ioannis N. Theotokas

This paper aims to identify the interplay of standard Capesize optimal speeds for time charter equivalent (TCE) maximization in the Australia–China iron ore route and the optimal…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify the interplay of standard Capesize optimal speeds for time charter equivalent (TCE) maximization in the Australia–China iron ore route and the optimal speeds as an operational tool for compliance with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) carbon intensity indicator (CII).

Design/methodology/approach

The TCE at different speeds have been calculated for four standard Capesize specifications: (1) standard Capesize with ecoelectronic engine; (2) standard Capesize with non-eco engine (3) standard Capesize vessel with an eco-electronic engine fitted with scrubber and (4) standard Capesize with non-eco engine and no scrubber fitted.

Findings

Calculations imply that in a highly inflationary bunker price context, the dollar per ton freight rates equilibrates at levels that may push optimal speeds below the speeds required for minimum CII compliance (C Rating) in the Australia–China trade. The highest deviation of optimal speeds from those required for minimum CII compliance is observed for non-eco standard Capesize vessels without scrubbers. Increased non-eco Capesize deployment would see optimal speeds structurally lower at levels that could offer CII ratings improvements.

Originality/value

While most of the studies have covered the use of speed as a tool to improve efficiency and emissions in the maritime sector, few have been identified in the literature to have examined the interplay between the commercial and operational performance in the dry bulk sector stemming from the freight market equilibrium. The originality of this paper lies in examining the above relation and the resulting optimal speed selection in the Capesize sector against mandatory environmental targets.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Shuifeng Hong, Yimin Luo, Mengya Li and Duoping Yang

This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk spillovers.

Design/methodology/approach

With daily data, the authors first undertake the MODWT method to decompose yield series into four different timescales, and then use the R-Vine Copula-CoVaR to analyze correlation and risk spillovers between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets.

Findings

The empirical results are as follows: (a) short-term trading is the primary driver of price volatility in crude oil futures markets. (b) The crude oil futures markets exhibit certain regional aggregation characteristics, with the Indian crude oil futures market playing an important role in connecting Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. What’s more, Oman crude oil serves as a bridge to link Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. (c) There are significant tail correlations among different futures markets, making them susceptible to “same fall but different rise” scenarios. The volatility behavior of the Indian and Euramerican markets is highly correlated in extreme incidents. (d) Those markets exhibit asymmetric bidirectional risk spillovers. Specifically, the Euramerican mature crude oil futures markets demonstrate significant risk spillovers in the extreme short term, with a relatively larger spillover effect observed on the Indian crude oil futures market. Compared with India and Japan in Asian emerging crude oil futures markets, China's crude oil futures market places more emphasis on changes in market fundamentals and prefers to hold long-term positions rather than short-term technical factors.

Originality/value

The MODWT model is utilized to capture the multiscale coordinated motion characteristics of the data in the time–frequency perspective. What’s more, compared to traditional methods, the R-Vine Copula model exhibits greater flexibility and higher measurement accuracy, enabling it to more accurately capture correlation structures among multiple markets. The proposed methodology can provide evidence for whether crude oil futures markets exhibit integration characteristics and can deepen our understanding of connections among crude oil futures prices.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 November 2023

Ping Wei, Jingzi Zhou, Xiaohang Ren and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

This paper aims to explore the quantile-specific short- and long-term effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the efficiency of the green bond market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the quantile-specific short- and long-term effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the efficiency of the green bond market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the long-term cointegration relationship and the short-term fluctuation relationship of EPU, WTI crude oil price (WTI) and European Union Allowances price (EUA) with the green bond market efficiency (GBE) using the quantile autoregressive distributed lag method. Additionally, the authors analyze the differences before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Findings

EPU has a significant positive impact on the GBE before the outbreak. However, during the crisis period, the impact of EPU and WTI was greatly weakened, whereas the impact of EUA was strengthened.

Practical implications

This paper demonstrates the dynamics of GBE and its influencing factors under different periods. The findings provide insights for market participants and policymakers to gain a clearer understanding of the green bond market.

Originality/value

This paper extends the study of green bonds by quantifying the GBE and elucidating the nonlinear relationship between efficiency and independent variables at different quantiles over different periods.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 23 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

1 – 10 of 203