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Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Abraham Deka, Hüseyin Özdeşer and Mehdi Seraj

The purpose of this study is to verify all factors that promote renewable energy (RE) consumption. Past studies have shown that financial development (FD) and economic growth (EG…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to verify all factors that promote renewable energy (RE) consumption. Past studies have shown that financial development (FD) and economic growth (EG) are the major drivers toward RE development, while oil prices had mixed outcomes in different regions by different studies.

Design/methodology/approach

Global warming effects have been the major reason of the transition by nations from fossil fuel use to RE sources that are considered as friendly to the environment. This research uses the fixed effects and random effects techniques, to ascertain the factors which impact RE development. The generalized linear model is also used to check the robustness of the Fixed Effects and Random Effects models’ results, while the Kao, Pedroni and Westerlund tests are used to check cointegration in the specified model.

Findings

The major findings of this study show the importance of EG and FD in promoting RE development. Oil prices, inflation rate and public sector credit present a negative effect on RE development, while foreign direct investment does not significantly impact RE development.

Practical implications

This research recommends the use of FD in promoting RE sources, as well as the stabilization of oil prices and consumer prices.

Originality/value

This research is important because it specifies the three proxies of FD, together with foreign direct investment inflation rate, EG and oil prices, in modeling RE. By investigating the impact of oil prices on RE in the emerging seven economies, this research becomes one of the few studies done in this region, as per the authors’ knowhow.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Amanjot Singh

This study examines the value implications of oil price uncertainty for investors in diversified firms using a sample of 922 USA firms from 2001 to 2019.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the value implications of oil price uncertainty for investors in diversified firms using a sample of 922 USA firms from 2001 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

Our study employs a panel dataset to examine the value implications of oil price uncertainty for diversified firm investors. We consider several alternative specifications to account for unobserved factors and measurement errors that could potentially bias our results. In particular, we use alternative measures of the excess value of diversified firms and oil price uncertainty, additional control variables, fixed-effects models, the Oster test, impact threshold for confounding variable (ITCV) analysis, two-stage least square instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) analysis and the system-GMM model.

Findings

We find that the excess value of diversified firms, relative to a benchmark portfolio of single-segment firms, increases with high oil price uncertainty. The impact of oil price uncertainty is asymmetric, as corporate diversification is value-increasing for diversified firm investors only when the volatility is due to positive oil price changes and amidst supply-driven oil price shocks. The excess value increases irrespective of diversified firms’ financial constraints and oil usage. Diversified firms become conservative in their internal capital allocations with high oil price uncertainty. Such conservatism is value-increasing for diversified firm investors, as it supports higher performance in response to oil price uncertainty.

Originality/value

Our study has three important implications: first, they are relevant to investors in understanding the portfolio value implications of oil price uncertainty. Second, they are helpful for firm managers while comprehending the value-relevant implications of internal capital allocations. Finally, our findings are policy relevant in the context of the future of diversified firms in developed markets.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2023

Olaniyi Evans

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil prices, economic growth and information communication technology (ICT) on investment into renewable energy transition (RET).

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil prices, economic growth and information communication technology (ICT) on investment into renewable energy transition (RET).

Design/methodology/approach

Based on six selected African countries (i.e. Algeria, Egypt, Angola, Ethiopia, South Africa and Nigeria), the study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model over the period from 1995 to 2020.

Findings

The results show that increasing oil prices, by substitution effect, leads to increasing RET investment, while declining oil prices lead to decreasing RET investment in the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that increasing real gross domestic product leads to increased RET investment, while declining real gross domestic product (GDP) leads to decreasing RET investment both in the short and long run. Simultaneously, the study shows that increasing ICT has a significant and positive impact on RET investment, while declining ICT has a significant negative impact on RET investment in the short and long run.

Originality/value

The findings of this study have advanced the understanding of which factors significantly influence RET investment and the need to concentrate efforts on strategically addressing those factors. The findings indicate that these countries are at the progressive stage in terms of renewable energy; though increasing oil prices contribute to rising RET investment, the countries can be more proactive by improving the full potential of ICT as well as facilitating the growth of their economies.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2022

Rafiq Ahmed, Hubert Visas and Jabbar Ul-haq

This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests were used for unit-root testing, whereas the johansen-juselius test was used for cointegration. For the short-run, the error correction model is used and the robustness of the model is checked using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS). The cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM of Squares tests were used to check the stability of the model, while parameter instability was confirmed by the Chow breakpoint test. Finally, the impulse response function was used for causality.

Findings

According to the findings, rising oil prices, among other things, have an impact on housing prices. Inflation is the single most important factor affecting not only the housing sector but also the entire economy. Lending and exchange rates have a significant impact on housing prices as well. The FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that the OLS results are robust. According to the variance decomposition model, housing prices and oil prices are bidirectionally related. The Government of Pakistan must develop a housing policy on a regular basis to develop the country’s urban housing supply and demand.

Practical implications

It is suggested that in Pakistan, the rising oil prices is a problem for the housing prices as well as many other sectors. The government needs to explore alternative ways of energy generation rather than the heavy reliance on imported oil.

Originality/value

Pakistan has been experiencing rising oil prices and housing prices with the rapid urbanisation and rural–urban migration. The contribution to the literature is that neither attempt (as to the best of the authors’ knowledge) has been made to check the impact of rising oil prices on housing sector development in Pakistan.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2024

Karan Raj and Devashish Sharma

The purpose of this study is to construct a new index to assess the impact of an energy price shock on macroeconomic indicators of India. This paper also shows a comparative…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to construct a new index to assess the impact of an energy price shock on macroeconomic indicators of India. This paper also shows a comparative analysis of the constructed index along with pre-existing World Bank and International Monetary Fund indices on energy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses three vector autoregressions and compute the long-term impact of the indices on the considered macroeconomic variables through impulse response functions.

Findings

This paper finds that an energy price shock has a detrimental impact on the macroeconomic indicators of India in the long run. This study also finds that the constructed index acts as a relatively more sensitive index in comparison to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank indices, which is bespoke to a developing economy case. This sensitivity is ascribed to dynamic weighting for a different basket of energy components, which are more pertinent to an Indian context.

Originality/value

The novelty of this research lies in the construction of a new index and its comparison to the existing ones. This study justifies why a developing economy would require a different measure of energy as opposed to the existing indices.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Shuifeng Hong, Yimin Luo, Mengya Li and Duoping Yang

This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk spillovers.

Design/methodology/approach

With daily data, the authors first undertake the MODWT method to decompose yield series into four different timescales, and then use the R-Vine Copula-CoVaR to analyze correlation and risk spillovers between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets.

Findings

The empirical results are as follows: (a) short-term trading is the primary driver of price volatility in crude oil futures markets. (b) The crude oil futures markets exhibit certain regional aggregation characteristics, with the Indian crude oil futures market playing an important role in connecting Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. What’s more, Oman crude oil serves as a bridge to link Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. (c) There are significant tail correlations among different futures markets, making them susceptible to “same fall but different rise” scenarios. The volatility behavior of the Indian and Euramerican markets is highly correlated in extreme incidents. (d) Those markets exhibit asymmetric bidirectional risk spillovers. Specifically, the Euramerican mature crude oil futures markets demonstrate significant risk spillovers in the extreme short term, with a relatively larger spillover effect observed on the Indian crude oil futures market. Compared with India and Japan in Asian emerging crude oil futures markets, China's crude oil futures market places more emphasis on changes in market fundamentals and prefers to hold long-term positions rather than short-term technical factors.

Originality/value

The MODWT model is utilized to capture the multiscale coordinated motion characteristics of the data in the time–frequency perspective. What’s more, compared to traditional methods, the R-Vine Copula model exhibits greater flexibility and higher measurement accuracy, enabling it to more accurately capture correlation structures among multiple markets. The proposed methodology can provide evidence for whether crude oil futures markets exhibit integration characteristics and can deepen our understanding of connections among crude oil futures prices.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 October 2023

Haoze Cang, Xiangyan Zeng and Shuli Yan

The effective prediction of crude oil futures prices can provide a reference for relevant enterprises to make production plans and investment decisions. To the nonlinearity, high…

Abstract

Purpose

The effective prediction of crude oil futures prices can provide a reference for relevant enterprises to make production plans and investment decisions. To the nonlinearity, high volatility and uncertainty of the crude oil futures price, a matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model combined with an exponential accumulation generating operator (MNEGBM(1,1)) is proposed in this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the original sequence is processed by the exponential accumulation generating operator to weaken its volatility. The nonlinear grey Bernoulli and exponential function models are combined to fit the preprocessed sequence. Then, the parameters in MNEGBM(1,1) are matrixed, so the ternary interval number sequence can be modeled directly. Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is chosen to optimize the nonlinear parameters. Finally, the Cramer rule is used to derive the time recursive formula.

Findings

The predictive effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing it with five comparison models. Crude oil futures prices in Cushing, OK are predicted and analyzed from 2023/07 to 2023/12. The prediction results show it will gradually decrease over the next six months.

Originality/value

Crude oil futures prices are highly volatile in the short term. The use of grey model for short-term prediction is valuable for research. For the data characteristics of crude oil futures price, this study first proposes an improved model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2023

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Souha Boutouria

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The authors also compare the hedging performance of in-sample and out-of-sample analyses.

Design/methodology/approach

For the modeling purpose, the authors combine the GARCH-BEKK model with the machine learning approach to predict the transmission of shocks between the financial markets and the oil market. The authors also examine the hedging performance in order to obtain well-diversified portfolios under both Financial Stress cases, using a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) model.

Findings

According to the results, the in-sample analysis shows that investors can use oil to hedge stock markets under positive Financial Stress. In addition, the authors prove that oil hedging is ineffective in reducing market risks for bond markets. The out-of-sample results demonstrate the ability of hedging effectiveness to minimize portfolio risk during the recent pandemic in both Financial Stress cases. Interestingly, hedgers will have a more efficient hedging performance in the stock and oil market in the case of positive (negative) Financial Stress. The findings seem to be confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test, suggesting that including the negative (positive) Financial Stress in the hedging strategy displays better out-of-sample performance than the in-sample model.

Originality/value

This study improves the understanding of the whole sample and positive (negative) Financial Stress estimates and forecasts of hedge effectiveness for both the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates. A portfolio strategy based on transmission shock prediction provides diversification benefits.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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