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1 – 10 of 114Abdelkader Derbali, Shan Wu and Lamia Jamel
This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production announcements for energy futures (crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gasoline reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending (RBOB), Brent oil, London gas oil, natural gas and heating oil) market returns and volatilities.
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the impact of OPEC news on energy futures market returns and volatilities, the authors use a conditional quantile regression methodology during the period from April 01, 2013 to June 30, 2017.
Findings
From the empirical findings, the authors show a conditional dependence between energy futures returns and OPEC-based predictors; hence, the authors can find clear the significance of relationship in the process of financialization of the OPEC announcements and energy futures in the case of this paper. From the quantile-causality test, the authors find that the effect of OPEC news is important to energy futures. Specifically, OPEC announcements dates predict the quantiles of the conditional distribution of energy futures market returns.
Originality/value
The authors confirm the presence of unidirectional nexus between OPEC news and energy commodities futures in the long term.
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Keywords
The so-called “oil price war” of 2014-2016 took place between several main global oil producers; OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia), Russia and the newcomer; American tight oil or…
Abstract
Purpose
The so-called “oil price war” of 2014-2016 took place between several main global oil producers; OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia), Russia and the newcomer; American tight oil or fracking oil. These oil producers were competing against each other over market shares in the global oil market, by maintaining their high oil production rates, even if this led to a decline in oil prices and a reduction in revenues from oil sales. As energy politics need more coverage in International Political Economy (IPE) theory, this paper aims to argue that Saudi Arabia's policies during the oil price war of 2014-2016 reflected a policy of neomercantilism, which is the IPE equivalent of the school of realism in International Relations (IR).
Design/methodology/approach
This paper tests for neomercantilism by testing three of its main definitional components. The first definitional component is that the state, as the political authority, intervenes in the economic decisions. The second component is the primacy of the state interests over business corporate profits, or the primacy of political and security considerations over short-term economic and corporate profit considerations. The third is the zero-sum or relative gains nature of dealings between states. Afterwards, this paper tests for neomercantilism in the Saudi policy by examining how each of these definitional components is reflected in the Saudi policy during the oil price war.
Findings
As energy politics need more coverage in International Political Economy (IPE) theory, this paper argues that Saudi Arabia's policies during the oil price war of 2014-2016 reflected a policy of neomercantilism, which is the IPE equivalent of the school of realism in International Relations (IR).
Originality/value
As energy politics need more coverage in International Political Economy (IPE) theory, this paper argues that Saudi Arabia's policies during the oil price war of 2014-2016 reflected a policy of neomercantilism, which is the IPE equivalent of the school of realism in International Relations (IR).
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Keywords
I study the economic implications of the world oil market dominated by OPEC and non-OPEC major oil producing countries using a general equilibrium model of trilateral trade with…
Abstract
I study the economic implications of the world oil market dominated by OPEC and non-OPEC major oil producing countries using a general equilibrium model of trilateral trade with oil duopoly. There are three countries and three goods, x, y, and oil (z). Home (H) is endowed with good x . Foreign (F) is endowed with good y and also produces oil (z). Middle (M) is an oil producing country and supplies oil only. I consider two types of oil market structure; (1) Cournot duopoly and (2) perfect competition. I find that Foreign is actually worse off under Cournot duopoly despite being a duopolist for wide range of parameter values that reflect real world situations. This is mainly due to reduced consumption of oil and reduced value of good y endowment under duopoly when Foreign is a net oil exporter or oil autarky, and is also due to worsening terms-of-trade effect under duopoly when Foreign is a net oil importer. Welfare reversal with higher welfare of Foreign under oil duopoly occurs only under highly unrealistic parameter values, and hence the main results of the study remain robust.
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Keywords
Mei-Ling Cheng, Ching-Wu Chu and Hsiu-Li Hsu
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.
Design/methodology/approach
Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.
Findings
The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.
Originality/value
The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.
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Keywords
Marvin J. Cetron, Owen Davies, Fred DeMicco and Mohan Song
The purpose of this study is to continue to forecast trends in the hospitality and travel industry with practical implications.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to continue to forecast trends in the hospitality and travel industry with practical implications.
Design/methodology/approach
This study is the updated version of our previous list of trends. The new edition updates the previous report on the implications for the hospitality industry of major trends now shaping the future. We focus mainly on energy, environmental and labor force and work trends and discuss sub-trends under each trend. We then implicate how the trends affect the Hospitality and Travel industry.
Findings
We shared implications under each sub-trends.
Originality/value
The value of this article is to analyze the impact of the environment on the Hospitality and Travel industry from a macro perspective. For each trend, we implicate an estimate for future trends. We hope this article sheds light on the prediction of the Hospitality and Travel industry.
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The crude oil market has experienced an unprecedented overreaction in the first half of the pandemic year 2020. This study aims to show the performance of the global crude oil…
Abstract
Purpose
The crude oil market has experienced an unprecedented overreaction in the first half of the pandemic year 2020. This study aims to show the performance of the global crude oil market amid Covid-19 and spillover relations with other asset classes.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ various pandemic outbreak indicators to show the overreaction of the crude oil market due to Covid-19 infection. The analysis also presents market connectedness and spillover relations between the crude oil market and other asset classes.
Findings
One of the essential findings the authors report is that the crude oil market remains more responsive to pandemic fake news. The shock of the global pandemic panic index and pandemic sentiment index appears to be more promising. It has also been noticed that the energy trader's sentiment (OVX and OIV) was measured at a too high level within the Covid-19 outbreak. Volatility spillover analysis shows that crude oil and other market are closely connected, and the total connectedness index directs on average 35% contribution from spillover. During the initial growth of the infection, other macroeconomic and political events remained to favor the market. The second phase amidst the pandemic outbreak harms the global crude oil market. The authors find that infectious diseases increase investor panic and anxiety.
Practical implications
The crude oil investors' sentiment index OVX indicates fear and panic due to infectious diseases and lack of hedge funds to protect energy investments. The unparalleled overreaction of the investors gauged in OVX indicates market participants have paid an excessive put option (protection) premium over the contagious outbreak of the infectious disease.
Originality/value
The empirical model and result reported amid Covid-19 are novel in terms of employing a news-based index of the pandemic, which are based on the content analysis and text search using natural processing language with the aid of computer algorithms.
研究目的
原油市場在流行病肆虐的2020年的頭半年經歷史無前例的過度反應。本文旨在顯示全球原油市場在2019冠狀病毒病流行期間的表現及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係.
研究設計/方法/理念
我們使用各種大流行病爆發的指標,來顯示原油市場因2019冠狀病毒病的感染而過度反應。我們的分析亦涉及市場的關聯性及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係.
研究結果
我們其中一個基本的發現是: 原油市場仍對大流行病的虛假新聞有更迅速的反應。全球大流行病恐慌性指數及大流行病情緒指數所帶來的震驚似乎是有希望的。大家亦察覺,能源交易商的情緒(OVX及OIV) 在2019冠狀病毒病爆發期間被測量為處於太高的水平。波動溢出分析顯示、原油與其它市場有密切的關係,而總關聯度指數引導平均35%來自溢出量的作用。在感染傳播初期,其它的宏觀經濟和政治事件仍對市場有利。在大流行病爆發期間的第二階段則損害全球原油市場。我們發現,傳染病會增加投資者的恐慌和焦慮.
實際的意義
原油投資者的情緒指數OVX顯示因傳染病及因缺乏對沖基金來保障能源投資而帶來的懼怕和恐慌。於OVX測算到的投資者空前的過度反應顯示市場參與者就這傳染病的感染爆發付出過量的賣權(保障)權利金.
研究的原創性
我們的經驗模型和在2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間匯報的研究結果,從使用以新聞為基礎的流行病指數的角度而言是新穎的。而這些全以內容分析和正文搜尋為基礎、使用自然語言處理,並輔以計算機算法.
Jihong Chen, Renjie Zhao, Wenjing Xiong, Zheng Wan, Lang Xu and Weipan Zhang
The paper aims to identify the contributors to freight rate fluctuations in the Suezmax tanker market; this study selected the refinery output, crude oil price, one-year charter…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to identify the contributors to freight rate fluctuations in the Suezmax tanker market; this study selected the refinery output, crude oil price, one-year charter rate and fleet development as the main influencing factors for the market analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper used the vector error correction model to evaluate the degree of impact of each influencing factor on Suezmax tanker freight rates, as well as the interplay between these factors.
Findings
The conclusion and results were tested using the 20-year data from 1999 to 2019, and the methodology and theory of this paper were proved to be effective. Results of this study provide effective reference for scholars to find the law of fluctuations in Suezmax tanker freight rates.
Originality/value
This paper provides a decision-making support tool for tanker operators to cope with fluctuation risks in the tanker shipping market.
Details