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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Ishfaq Nazir Khanday, Md. Tarique, Inayat Ullah Wani and Muzffar Hussain Dar

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality.

Findings

The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions.

Research limitations/implications

The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Mouna Aloui, Besma Hamdi, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Ahmed Jeribi

This study aims to explore the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

This research analyzes the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19, using the quantile regression approach for the 2016–2020 period. In addition, to catch long- and short-run asymmetries of cryptocurrencies on aforementioned dependent variables, an asymmetric nonlinear co-integration (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag [NARDL]) approach is applied.

Findings

The result of the quantile regression shows that in a high market, which corresponds to the 90th quantile, the FTSE MIB, CAC40, SSE, BSE 30, and BVSP stock market showed a statistically insignificant negative coefficient, on the Bitcoin price. In a middle and low markets, which correspond to the 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5th quantiles, the BVSP, FTSE MIB, S&P/TSX, SSE and Nikkei stock markets show statistically significant and positive on Bitcoin. Evidence from the NARDL shows a statistically significant positive impact of cryptocurrencies on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and BRICS indices before and during COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

These results can provide investors with valuable analysis and information and help them make the best decisions and adopt the best strategies. Therefore, future investigations may concentrate and examine the monetary and governmental policies to be adapted to face the COVID-19 pandemic’s dangerous effects on both the society and the economy. For this reason, investors should take this into account when making their asset allocation decisions. Moreover, the portfolio managers, such as index funds, may consider few eligible cryptocurrencies for their inclusion into the portfolio. However, the speculators present in both stock and crypto markets may opt for a spread strategy to improve their portfolio returns.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 65 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2023

Khalid M. Kisswani

This study aims to explore the long- and short-run effects of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct) on daily stock returns (Rt) for Kuwait. This is the first study that was…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the long- and short-run effects of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct) on daily stock returns (Rt) for Kuwait. This is the first study that was applied to the case of Kuwait.

Design/methodology/approach

We employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2001) for daily data over the period March 2020 to August 2021.

Findings

The findings first document the existence of a long-run relationship (cointegration). Second, the findings of the ARDL model show a significant positive long-run effect of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct) on daily stock returns (Rt) but a significant negative short-run effect. As for the NARDL model, the findings showed that the increase and decrease of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct1+,Ct1) have symmetric long-run effects on daily stock returns but asymmetric short-run effects. Finally, the vector error correction model causality test shows significant long- and short-run unidirectional causality running from daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct) to daily stock returns (Rt).

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that was applied to the case of Kuwait.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2022

Suresh Kumar, Ankit Kumar and Gurcharan Singh

This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines the data during the COVID-19 outbreak from January 2020 to December 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

To estimate the long- and short-run causality, this study considers the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) cointegration test.

Findings

The analysis found the existence of an asymmetric long-run cointegration among selected assets. Findings indicate that positive changes in bitcoin do not affect stock market in the long term. Changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on stock prices. Moreover, it is observed that variations in the stock prices trigger a negative impact on gold prices. During the COVID-19 period, the study notices the presence of an asymmetric long-term cointegration between selected assets except bitcoin. Besides, findings revealed that negative price adjustments in gold lead to significant positive shocks in stock market.

Originality/value

These results provide critical information for policy performers and researchers to develop new strategies. Policy regulators can also consider the potential effects of the COVID-19 outbreak while developing strategies for investment decisions.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Jeunesse Noumga, Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa and Jean Gaston Tamba

This research paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of income and price on household consumption of kerosene in Cameroon.

Abstract

Purpose

This research paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of income and price on household consumption of kerosene in Cameroon.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach consists of testing for stationarity using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Andrews and Zivot tests, determining cointegration using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) test approach and finally examining asymmetry using the Wald test.

Findings

Results of the stationarity tests reveal that variables are all integrated of order less than two I(2). The NARDL approach indicates that the (positive and negative) income shock and the positive price boom negatively influence consumption in the long- and short-run. The same is true for the negative price shock, but the latter remains insignificant. Furthermore, the Wald test carried out in the study confirms that the cumulative effects of the positive and negative income and price shocks are asymmetric.

Originality/value

The increase in the price of kerosene due to the lifting of subsidies has led to a decrease in household consumption and an unfortunate increase in the loss of tree cover in Cameroon. According to the results, this phenomenon will persist even if the price is reduced. Actions aimed at reducing its production at the expense of liquefied petroleum gas, electricity and renewable energy should be encouraged to limit the loss of vegetation cover. Thus, this study could contribute to solving the problem of deforestation and desertification in Cameroon.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.

Findings

The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.

Research limitations/implications

This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.

Practical implications

This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.

Originality/value

The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 June 2023

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Mosab I. Tabash and Suhaib Anagreh

This study examines the influence of the global geopolitical risk (GPR) on the relationship between oil prices and domestic food prices under the augmented Phillips curve…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the influence of the global geopolitical risk (GPR) on the relationship between oil prices and domestic food prices under the augmented Phillips curve framework.

Design/methodology/approach

Using monthly data on Nigeria from January 1995 to December 2021, the authors accommodate symmetry and asymmetry by adopting the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag, linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests.

Findings

The study establishes the positive and significant effects of both oil prices and GPR on food prices in the long and short run, though with a small magnitude in the short run. The asymmetric model shows that, while oil price shocks (positive and negative) exert a positive influence on food prices in the long-run, the effects of oil price shocks differ when accounting for GPR in the short-run. The coefficients of the interactive term, being the moderator of GPR between oil-food prices, are positively significant across models, suggesting that they jointly influence food prices when assuming linearity. The nonlinear model shows that the positive and negative components of interactive terms exert a positively significant influence on food prices, even though food prices tend to be more reactive to positive oil price shocks. The robustness checks show a unidirectional causal flow from oil prices and GPR to food prices under the linear and nonlinear models.

Originality/value

The authors examine the moderating effect of the newly developed global GPR index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) on the oil–food inflation relationship in Nigeria by applying the symmetric and asymmetric approaches.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 September 2023

Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, Oluwayemisi Kadijat Adeleke and Akintoye Victor Adejumo

This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.

Abstract

Purpose

This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets.

Findings

The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate.

Practical implications

The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2023

Alper Karasoy

This study aims to examine the effects of industrialization, deindustrialization and financialization on Turkey’s energy insecurity by controlling the impacts of urbanization and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the effects of industrialization, deindustrialization and financialization on Turkey’s energy insecurity by controlling the impacts of urbanization and alternative energy generation for the 1980–2018 period.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposed an econometric model relying on the literature. Moreover, based on different financialization variables, this study estimated two specifications of this model using the augmented nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach.

Findings

The results are as follows: first, industrialization increased Turkey’s long-run energy insecurity, whereas deindustrialization did not affect Turkey’s energy security. Second, urbanization worsened Turkey’s energy insecurity. Third, financialization aggravated Turkey’s energy insecurity. Last, alternative energy generation improved Turkey’s energy security.

Research limitations/implications

This study identifies the energy security’s drivers in Turkey with a focus on industrialization and financialization. Nonetheless, further research is needed on other emerging economies with high energy insecurity levels, and a disaggregated approach can be followed to examine how various industrial sectors impact energy security.

Practical implications

To combat energy insecurity, quantifiable, innovative and energy-efficient goals should be set for Turkey’s industry sector. Additionally, to achieve these goals, financial opportunities should be provided by reforming the financial sector. This reformative approach can also curb financialization’s negative effect on Turkey’s energy security.

Social implications

Deindustrialization is not a solution to Turkey’s energy insecurity. Also, unless necessary actions are taken, industrialization, financialization and uncontrolled urbanization may continue to threaten Turkey’s energy security. Finally, promoting alternative energy generation seems to be a viable long-run solution to energy insecurity.

Originality/value

Although a significant number of studies investigated industrialization’s and financialization’s impacts on energy demand or environmental damage, only a few studies examined their impacts on energy insecurity. Similar to other developing nations, as Turkey is facing chronic energy security problems, the author believes that the analysis provides important policy insights regarding energy (in)security’s drivers. By differentiating the impacts of industrialization and deindustrialization, this study also shows that deindustrialization may not be a proper solution to deal with energy insecurity.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 December 2023

Samuel Osei-Gyebi and John Bosco Dramani

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and electricity transmission losses (ETL) in Ghana. Also, we examined how…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and electricity transmission losses (ETL) in Ghana. Also, we examined how ETL moderate the effect of EC on economic growth in Ghana from 1980 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

We used timeseries data from 1980 to 2021 within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to analyze the links among ETL, EC and economic growth in Ghana.

Findings

Findings show the existence of an asymmetric long-run relationship between EC and ETL. Also, the negative effects of ETL on EC are bigger in the long run. In addition, ETL and EC combine to reduce economic growth, in the long run, providing evidence for the energy-led growth theory in Ghana. Population and inflation were also found to have a significant effect on economic growth in Ghana.

Originality/value

We examined the nonlinear nexus of EC and ETL, which extant studies have ignored in discussing the link between EC and economic growth. Again, we showed that ETL reduces EC causing a reduction in economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

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