Search results

Kuwait is a typical example of an oil‐based economy. The oil sector contributes over one‐third of GDP and over 90 per cent of exports. Economic diversification for Kuwait means reducing the heavy dependency on the oil sector. It also implicitly includes reducing the direct role of the public sector while increasing private sector activities and hence the private sector’s size and role in the economy. The study shows that although Kuwait has tried to lessen its dependence on oil through the development of the nonoil sectors, its success so far has been, at best, very modest. Furthermore, it is expected that Kuwait will continue to rely heavily on oil, at least for the next two decades. The crux of the matter is that government policies were mainly in reaction to certain situations and thus no actual diversification took place. The necessity of economic reform and structural adjustment come up to the top of the policy action agenda only when oil prices are down and the government is faced with budgetary pressure.

The resource curse literature suggests that firms operating in non-oil and non-gas industries in petrostates face considerable challenges in securing competitiveness and sustaining themselves. Based on a firm-level survey within a micro-petrostate, Brunei, the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between specific HR policies and practices and organisational performance; analyse, compare, and contrast oil and gas with non-oil and non-gas sectors; and draw out the comparative lessons for understanding the potential and performance consequences of HR interventions in resource-centred national economies.

Data for this study were generated from a primary survey administered amongst the HR directors in companies operating in all sectors in Brunei. A statistically representative sample size of 214 was selected.

The authors confirmed that firms in the oil and gas sector indeed performed better than other sectors. However, the authors found that the negative effects associated with operating outside of oil and gas could be mitigated through strategic choices: the strategic involvement of HR directors in the affairs of the company reduced employee turnover and added positively to financial returns across sectors.

Developing and enhancing the role of people management is still very much easier than bringing about structural institutional reforms: the study confirms that at least part of the solution to contextual difficulties lies within, and that the firm-level consequences of the resource curse can be ameliorated through a strategic choice.

The nature of the present investigation is one of few studies conducted in South East Asia in general and in the context of Brunei, in particular. It also contributes to the authors’ understanding whether HR interventions can ameliorate the challenges of operating in a non-resource sector in a resource-rich country.

The main purpose of this paper is to understand the impact on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) economy of the objective of reducing its dependence on oil, trying to achieve the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) fiscal convergence criterion and the inevitable depletion of oil resources.

An 18 equation compact macro‐econometric model is constructed and is evaluated and calibrated employing dynamic simulation techniques. Optimal control techniques are used to analyze the economic impact of the three objectives listed above.

Each of the optimal control experiments that has been carried out has served to reinforce the fact that the UAE is still critically dependent on oil. An increase in the share of the non‐oil sector, adhering to the GCC fiscal criterion and any reduction in oil output production will affect government finances adversely.

The macro‐econometric model developed is for the UAE and further research is needed to see if the conclusions can be generalized to the other oil exporting countries.

The estimated macro‐econometric model and the optimal control experiments indicate to the policy makers the need to continue the diversification of the economy and for government to actively explore and enhance non‐hydrocarbon sources of revenue.

This paper develops a compact macro‐econometric model of the UAE and uses optimal control techniques which go well beyond the standard simulation techniques and the routine counter‐factual experiments to understand the working of the economy.

The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy between 2014 and 2017. Trades and investments have plummeted, leading to significant budget deficits. In response, the government unveiled a plan called Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016 which has triggered structural economic reforms leading to an unprecedented strategy of transition from an oil-driven economy to a modern market economy.

This paper forecasts with spectral analysis economic indicators of the Saudi economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of the future economy assuming that the effects of recent reforms have not yet been traced by most of the economic indicators.

2018–2030 forecasts are all bearish except West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price expected to average $64.40 during the period 2019–2030. Two additional exceptions are the Saudi population that should grow to 40 million in 2030 and the swelling gross domestic product (GDP) generated by the non-oil sector resulting from bold actions of the Saudi government who is willing to become less dependent on revenues generated by the oil sector.

Government policymakers, economists and investors would have with spectral forecasts better insight and understanding of the Saudi economy dynamics at the early stage of major economic reforms implemented in the country. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt the Saudi economy following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The impact on the Saudi economy will depend on the optimal response brought by its government.

Saudi Vision 2030 plan has already triggered a deep transformation of the Saudi society that is reviewed in this paper.

The forecast of Saudi economic indicators is a timely topic considering the challenges facing the economy and reforms being undertaken. Applying an original forecasting technique to economic indicators adds to the originality of the paper.

Iran's third five‐year development (2000/2001‐2004/2005) has been considered a pivotal role for private investment in creating 700,000‐800,000 jobs per annum to stabilise the rate of unemployment. This paper examines the long‐ and short‐run determinants of the private investment function by employing the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique and a short‐run dynamic model. Using annual data for the period 1960‐2000, this paper finds, inter alia, that private investment is cointegrated with non‐oil gross domestic product and the rate of inflation. It is found that a 1 per cent increase in inflation in the long run can immediately result in a 1 per cent decline in investment in the short run.

This study aims to investigate the contingent roles real effective exchange rates (REERs) play in mediating the effects of oil revenue on the agriculture sector value-added in 25 major and minor oil-exporting (MIOEC) countries during the period of 1975–2014.

The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) was relied upon to achieve the objectives of the study. This estimator involves a pool of small cross-sectional units over a long-time span that covers for 25 oil-exporting countries over 39 years (1975–2014).

This paper reveals the following findings. Firstly, oil revenue has a direct negative effect on agricultural value-added in the short- and long-term. This finding holds for full sample and subsamples of major oil-exporting (MAOEC) and MIOEC countries. Further assessment reveals that the magnitude of the impact is larger for MAOEC than that of the MIOEC. Secondly, the finding for the long-run effect shows that the contingent effect of real exchange rate on the nexus between oil revenue and agricultural value-added is negative and statistically significant at the conventional level for the full sample. This suggests that, in the long-run, the appreciation in real exchange rates exacerbate the negative marginal effects of oil revenue on agricultural value-added in all oil-exporting countries. However, when sub-samples of MAOEC and MIOEC are considered, the contingent effect disappeared (become insignificant) in MAOEC while it is positive and statistically significant in MIOEC. Thus, in the long-run, the appreciation in real exchange rates diminishes the negative marginal effects of oil revenue on agricultural value-added in MIOEC. While oil revenue has a direct negative effect, its effect is also moderated by the variations in REERs in MIOEC in the long-run. Finally, in the short-run, fluctuations in the real exchange rate do not matter for the nexus of oil revenue and agriculture sector in these countries whether minor or MAOEC countries.

This study contributes to the debate in the empirical literature on the Dutch disease effect and “oil curse”. Using the appropriate panel ARDL empirical framework, it provides evidence on how exchange rate variations in the oil-exporting countries influence the nature of the effects of the oil revenue on agricultural sectors in the long-run but not in the short-run. Contingent effects of REERs only appear to exist in MIOEC in the long-run.

Poverty reduction remains one of the main goals of development efforts, as evidenced by the adoption of the Millennium Development Goals by most developing countries and international agencies. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between trade (exports) and employment and how the relationship reduces poverty through the instrumentality of employment, with a focus on Nigeria.

The paper takes the form of descriptive analysis.

Evaluating the case for Nigeria, the authors find that oil exports which drives economic growth do not provide the needed employment to reduce poverty, while agricultural trade, particularly exports, are capable of reducing poverty and inequality in Nigeria through the channel of employment and agricultural productivity growth.

The paper makes a link between export trade, employment and poverty reduction in Nigeria.

During the past five decades, the role of government in most developed and developing countries has increased dramatically. Governments increased their provisions of social services and welfare. Furthermore, governments have become important producers of goods and services. In addition, by using a variety of fiscal and monetary instruments governments have attempted to manipulate and influence the economy. They have also sought to guide the development of the economy in the long run through the creation of economic infrastructure and institutions.

As the ongoing oil prices’ crisis is emerging as a major cause of concern for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, the constituent governments are attempting at undertaking measures of economic diversification to attain long-term sustainability. The author posits that open government data (OGD) has a significant role to play in facilitating the economic turnaround of the GCC region, given that OGD promotes innovation and economic growth besides providing avenues for collaboration and participation among different stakeholders.

Following a structured literature review, the paper scans literature on OGD followed by providing a typology of countries on the basis of their OGD-adherence (“laggard”, “caged”, “forerunner” and “champ”). This is followed by a discussion on the ongoing oil prices’ crisis, and evidentiary support is lent by examples from the OGD portals of each of the six GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) to provide indicators as to how a robust OGD implementation may support their economic diversification objectives.

Although the present OGD framework of the GCC is relatively weak, it is asserted that OGD has immense potential in facilitating the economic diversification initiatives of the GCC countries. Therefore, the GCC needs to strategize upon institutionalization of their OGD initiatives for realizing their “vision” and goals of economic diversification to result in an economic turnaround effectively.

Besides providing a typology of countries as OGD-adherents and categorizing GCC as “forerunner(s)” on the basis of the typology, the originality of the study lies in its attempt to answer the research question: “what is the role of the OGD in facilitating the economic diversification of the GCC?” Conceding that the research on OGD in the GCC context is few and far between, the present study is a significant contribution to the extant literature pertaining to the roll-out of OGD in developing countries.