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Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Labour and housing markets are slowing very gradually, but the strength of services is preventing a faster fall in headline inflation. The pass-through effects of interest-rate…

Prospects for the global economy in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Weak trade and fiscal policy constraints suggest global GDP growth will slow somewhat in 2024, with China and the United States losing momentum. Hopes for growth-boosting rate…

Turkish markets will suffer fallout from failed coup

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TURKEY

S&P is concerned that the political fallout from the failed July 15-16 military coup will make it more difficult for the country to meet its large external financing requirements…

Exogenous risks loom over Indonesia’s foreign debt

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INDONESIA

Outlook for Indonesia's foreign debt distress.

Commercial property unlikely to spark a global crisis

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INT

The diversity of the asset class -- offices account for 17% of loans to commercial real estate, while the more resilient multifamily sector accounts for 44% -- and the illiquidity…

The central banks face an increasingly complex dilemma

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INTERNATIONAL

With inflation lasting longer than expected, worries about the impact on banking may limit the scope for more rate hikes. Equally, a pause could undermine central banks'…

Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

Japan’s banking sector faces pressure to consolidate

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JAPAN

In response, parliament passed a law in May 2020 (effective November) to promote integration and mergers among regional banks by granting exceptions from the anti-monopoly law.

Kazakh banks are still fragile despite recent gains

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KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan's banking sector.

Xi's pressure on Chinese firms will only go so far

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CHINA

Since he took office, private firms have suffered most from attempts to rein in corporate debt, while state firms have benefited from flagship initiatives such as the Belt and…