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This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships among residential housing price indices of ten major Chinese cities for the years 2005–2021.

Using monthly data, this study uses vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph for characterization of contemporaneous causality among the ten indices.

The PC algorithm identifies the causal pattern and the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model algorithm further determines the causal path, from which this study conducts innovation accounting analysis. Sophisticated price dynamics are found in price adjustment processes following price shocks, which are generally dominated by the top tiers of cities.

This study suggests that policies on residential housing prices in the long run might need to be planned with particular attention paid to these top tiers of cities.

This study aims to investigate dynamic relations among office property price indices of 10 major cities in China for the years 2005–2021.

Using monthly data, the authors adopt vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph for the characterization of contemporaneous causality among the 10 indices.

The PC algorithm identifies the causal pattern, and the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model algorithm further determines the causal path from which we perform innovation accounting analysis. Sophisticated price dynamics are found in price adjustment processes following price shocks, which are generally dominated by the top tier of cities.

This suggests that policies on office property prices, in the long run, might need to be planned with particular attention paid to the top tier of cities.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the association between farm/farmer characteristics and unsubsidized farm insurance premium expenditure in Ireland. The distribution of farm insurance expenditures is wide, and it is important to understand the extent to which individual factors influence demand for different levels of insurance premium.

The quantile regression approach and farm accountancy data from the Teagasc National Farm Survey are used to model the association between farm/farmer characteristics and farm insurance demand in Ireland.

Asset values (livestock, buildings and machinery) are positively associated with total insurance expenditure. Both forestry area and crop area are significantly associated with farm insurance expenditure with a stronger influence on the middle and upper part of the distribution. The interaction between farm income and farmer age is positively associated with insurance expenditure pointing to the importance of farm income protection.

The research is mainly concerned with insuring against substantive risks, which are capable of threatening the asset base and continuation of the farm business. Future research can integrate questions in relation to farm safety and farmer health with research on the economic survival of the farm business.

Farmers in Ireland adopt unsubsidized farm insurance as a risk management tool. This situation is relevant to other EU member states including Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Sweden. The findings can be used to inform stakeholders and policymakers about the relative impact of different factors on insurance expenditure.

Previous research has typically focused on the linear relationship between farm/farmer characteristics and insurance demand without accounting for variability across the size distribution. This research is based on the quantile regression approach where the association between farm/farmer characteristics and farm insurance expenditure can be assessed at different points of the distribution.

This chapter introduces empirical studies of firm performance and related risk outcomes conducted in the management and finance fields presenting underlying theoretical rationales as they have evolved over time. Early finance studies of market-based returns predominantly found positively skewed return distributions that conform to assumptions about higher returns associated with more risky investments. Subsequent studies found that performance outcomes measured as accounting-based financial returns generally display left-skewed distributions that reflect negative risk-return relationships. This artifact was first observed by Bowman (1980), thus often referred to as the “Bowman paradox” because it contravened the conventional assumptions in finance. The management studies have largely confirmed the inverse risk-return observations but often following rather confined research streams. A contingency perspective inspired by prospect theory and behavioral rationales have investigated the lagged effects of performance on risk outcomes and vice versa. Another stream has focused on the spurious relationships between negatively skewed performance distributions and the inverse risk-return associations. A third approach considered the performance and risk outcomes as deriving from the firms responding in distinct ways to exogenous changes. These studies reach comparable results but underpinned by very different rationales. The finance studies observe deviations from the pure doctrine of positive risk-return associations embedded in the widely adopted capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and note deficiencies with alternative interpretations that even question the validity of CAPM. A more recent strain of studies in behavioral finance observes how many (even professional) investment managers have biases that lead to inverse relationships between perceived risk and return outcomes. While these diverse fields of study have different starting points, they uncover an increasing number of interesting commonalities that can inspire the ongoing search for explanations to observed left-skewed financial returns and negative risk-return correlations across firms.

This study aims to use a machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of traction coefficient and asperity load ratio for different surface topographies of non-conformal rough contacts.

The input data set for the ML model is generated using a mixed-lubrication model. Surface topography parameters (skewness, kurtosis and pattern ratio), rolling speed and hardness are used as input features in the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. The hyperparameter tuning and fivefold cross-validation are also performed to minimize the overfitting.

From the results, it is shown that the MLP model shows excellent accuracy (R² > 90%) on the test data set for making the prediction of mixed lubrication parameters. It is also observed that engineered rough surfaces with high negative skewness, low kurtosis and isotropic surface patterns exhibit a significant low traction coefficient. It is also concluded that the MLP model gives better accuracy in comparison to the random forest regression model based on the training and testing data sets.

Mixed lubrication parameters are predicted by developing a regression-based MLP model. The machine learning model is trained using several topography parameters, which are vital in the mixed-EHL regime because of the lack of regression-fit expressions in previous works. The accuracy of MLP with random forest models is also compared.

The development of digital technology has provided technical support to various industries. Specifically, Internet-based freight platforms can ensure the high-quality development of the logistics industry. Online freight platforms can use cargo transportation insurance to improve their service capabilities, promote their differentiated development, create products with platform characteristics and increase their core competitiveness.

This study uses a generalised linear model to fit the claim probability and claim intensity data and analyses freight insurance pricing based on the freight insurance claim data of a freight platform in China.

Considering traditional pricing risk factors, this study adds two risk factors to fit the claim probability data, that is, the purchase behaviour of freight insurance customers and road density. The two variables can significantly influence the claim probability, and the model fitting outcomes obtained with the logit connection function are excellent. In addition, this study examines the model results under various distribution types for the fitting of the claim intensity data. The fitting outcomes under a gamma distribution are superior to those under the other distribution types, as measured by the Akaike information criterion.

With actual data from an online freight platform in China, this study empirically proves that a generalised linear model is superior to traditional pricing methods for freight insurance. This study constructs a generalised linear pricing model considering the unique features of the freight industry and determines that the transportation distance, cargo weight and road density have a significant influence on the claim probability and claim intensity.

The valuation of artworks is challenging since their value encompasses economic, social and cultural values. This study examines two specific questions about the economics of Indian art market: first, the determinants of the price of paintings by Indian artists and second, the risk and return characteristics of investment in Indian paintings. The authors also analyze the role of local context for both questions.

This study uses 8,865 paintings that are auctioned between January, 2000 and June, 2018. A generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to identify the determinants of auction prices and estimate art market price index.

The results indicate that the price of paintings in the Indian market is impacted by both global and local factors. Consistent with the previous research, this study finds that provenance, literature, living status of an artist, artist reputation, auction house, location and gender determine prices. However, the unique behavior of artwork medium and art movement affiliation in the Indian art market signifies the importance of local context in the valuation of artworks. An analysis of the second aspect of the study, i.e. risk and return characteristics of art investment, suggests that though overall art market returns are not lucrative, there are sub-sections in the market that outperform stocks and other assets. Further, the Indian art market shows a weak or negative correlation with other assets, thus making it a good candidate for a diversified portfolio. One of the important findings of this study is that artworks created by artists associated with the Bombay Progressive Artists' Group (PAG) command a significant price premium over all other artworks. Moreover, the average return on investment in paintings by artists affiliated to the Bombay PAG is not only significantly better than other art movements but also higher than all other art assets.

This study contributes to the growing literature on the economics of art market by providing a comprehensive analysis of the economics of Indian paintings. This research highlights the importance of local factors in price determination and on the risk and return characteristics of art investment. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the most comprehensive study of the economics of Indian painting market and the first study to identify the relationship between Indian art movements and prices of paintings and returns on investment in paintings.

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.

The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.

The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.

The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

This paper aims to develop a dynamic civil facility degradation prediction model to forecast the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on the inspection records and the maintenance actions.

A real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model is proposed in this paper to predict the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on rare failure events. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for facility failure events occurrence. HMM is further adopted to establish the transmission probabilities among stages. Finally, the simulation inference is conducted using Particle filter (PF) to estimate the most probable model parameters. Water seals at the spillway hydraulic gate in a Taiwan's reservoir are used to examine the appropriateness of the approach.

The results of defect probabilities tendency from the real-time HMM model are highly consistent with the real defect trend pattern of civil facilities. The proposed facility degradation prediction model can provide the maintenance division with early warning of potential failure to establish a proper proactive maintenance plan, even under the condition of rare defects.

This model is a new method of civil facility degradation prediction under imperfect maintenance, even with rare failure events. It overcomes several limitations of classical failure pattern prediction approaches and can reliably simulate the occurrence of rare defects under imperfect maintenance and the effect of inspection reliability caused by human error. Based on the degradation trend pattern prediction, effective maintenance management plans can be practically implemented to minimize the frequency of the occurrence and the consequence of civil facility failures.

The study aims to cluster the travellers based on their social media interactions as well as to find the different segments with similar and dissimilar categories according to traveller's choice. The study also aims to understand the behaviour of clusters of the travellers towards destination selection and accordingly make the tour packages in order to improve tourists' satisfaction and gain viable benefits.

Agglomerative hierarchical clustering with Ward's minimum variance linkage algorithm and model-based clustering with parameterized finite Gaussian mixture models has been implemented to achieve the respective goals. The dimension reduction (DR) technique was introduced for better visualizing clustering structure obtained from a finite mixture of Gaussian densities.

A total of 980 travellers have been clustered into 8 different interest groups according to their tourism destinations selection across East Asia based on individual social media feedback. For selecting the optimal number of clusters as well as the behaviour of the interested travellers groups, both these proposed methods have shown remarkable similarities. DR technique ensures the reduction in dimensionality with seven directions, of which the first two directions explained 95% of total variability.

Tourism organizations focus on marketing efforts to promote the most attractive benefits to the clusters of travellers. By segmenting travellers of East Asia into homogeneous groups, it is feasible to choose a similar area to test different marketing techniques. Finally, it can be identified to which segments, new respondents or potential clients belong; consequently, the tourism organizations can design the tour packages.

The study has uniqueness in two aspects. Firstly, the study empirically revealed tourists' experience and behavioural intention to select tourism destinations and secondly, it finds quantifiable insights into the tourism phenomenon in East Asia, which helps tourism organizations to understand the buying behaviours of tourists' segments. Finally, the application of clustering algorithms to achieve the purpose of this study and the findings are very new in the literature on tourism, to understand the tourist behaviour towards destination selection based on social media reviews.