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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the changes of dental caries status among Thai adults and elderly under the different policy options using system dynamics modeling.

A multi-sector system dynamics model was developed to capture the dynamic interrelationship between dental caries status changes and oral health behavior – including self-care, dental care utilization and sugar consumption. Data used to populate the model was obtained from the Thai national oral health survey in 2000, 2006, 2012 and Thailand Official Statistics Registration. Three policy scenarios were experimented in the model: health promotion policy, dental personnel policy and affordable dental care service policy.

Dental caries experiences among Thai adults and elderly were projected to increase from now to 2040, as the elderly population increases. Among all policies experimented herein, the combined policies of health promotion, increased affordability and capacity of dental health service were found to produce the highest improvement in dental caries status with 3.7 percent reduction of population with high decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) and 5.2 percent increase in population with very low DMFT.

This study is the first comprehensive simulation model that attempts to explore the dynamic interrelationship among dental caries experiences and behavioral factors that impact on oral health outcomes. In addition, the simulation model herein offers a framework for policy experimentation that provides policymakers with additional insights to inform health policy planning.