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1 – 10 of 826Razali Haron and Salami Mansurat Ayojimi
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) implementation on Malaysian stock market index.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) implementation on Malaysian stock market index.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used daily closing prices of the Malaysian stock index and futures markets for the period ranging from June 2009 to November 2016. Empirical estimation is based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) model for pre- and post-announcement of the GST.
Findings
Result shows that volatility of Malaysian stock market index increases in the post-announcement than in the pre-announcement of the GST which indicates that educative programs employed by the government before the GST announcement did not yield meaningful result. The volatility of the Malaysian stock market index is persistent during the GST announcement and highly persistent after the implementation. Noticeable increase in post-announcement is in support with the expectation of the market about GST policy in Malaysia.
Practical implications
The finding of this study is consistent with expectation of the market that GST policy will increase the price of the goods and services and might reduce standard of living. This is supported by a noticeable increase in the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index in the post-announcement of GST which is empirically shown during the announcement and after the implementation of GST. Although the GST announcement could be classified as a scheduled announcement, unwillingness to accept the policy prevails in the market as shown by the increase in the market volatility.
Originality/value
Past studies on Malaysian stock market index volatility focus on the impact of Asian and global financial crisis whereas this study examines the impact of the GST announcement and implementation on the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index.
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Ali Murad Syed and Ishtiaq Ahmad Bajwa
This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on Saudi stock exchange is also tried on.
Design/methodology/approach
The market model is applied to help gauge the expected returns and to illustrate abnormal returns around the event date.
Findings
The results established that Saudi Stock Market does not bear semi-strong form of EMH. How efficient is the Saudi market is also reflected through evidence of significant abnormal returns and post-earnings announcement drift around earning announcements dates.
Research limitations/implications
The authors have not used analysts’ forecast as the expected earnings which are the limitation. As mentioned earlier, the authors used the quarterly earnings of the previous year as a proxy and that proxy could have been replaced by analysts’ forecast. Another limitation is that the trading volume in the event window is not considered.
Practical implications
The behavior of Saudi capital market is of much concern, and the study of this with a perspective of EMH is the significance of this paper.
Social implications
All stakeholders closely watch earnings announcements and its share price movement around the announcement date. Recently, Saudi Arabia has opened its doors to foreign investors, and big foreign investors are going to enter into Saudi capital market, and after their entry, the behavior of market could be different. In the authors’ opinion, this is the right time to study the efficiency of Saudi market before the entry of foreign investors.
Originality/value
This study is based on the gap created by EMH of Saudi market using event methodology, observed in the existing literature, and it will be a contribution to literature.
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Teik-Kheong Tan and Merouane Lakehal-Ayat
The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most…
Abstract
Purpose
The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers, but the profit they can achieve is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. This paper aims to demonstrate the dynamics of implied volatility (IV) as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), they extract four constructs and the results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated a good model fit for the constructs.
Design/methodology/approach
This section describes the methodology used for conducting the study. This includes the study area, study approach, sources of data, sampling technique and the method of data analysis.
Findings
Although there is extensive literature on methods for estimating IV dynamics during earnings announcement, few researchers have looked at the impact of expected market maker move, IV differential and IV Rank on the IV path after the earnings announcement. One reason for this research gap is because of the recent introduction of weekly options for equities by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) back in late 2010. Even then, the CBOE only released weekly options four individual equities – Bank of America (BAC.N), Apple (AAPL.O), Citigroup (C.N) and US-listed shares of BP (BP.L) (BP.N). The introduction of weekly options provided more trading flexibility and precision timing from shorter durations. This automatically expanded expiration choices, which in turned offered greater access and flexibility from the perspective of trading volatility during earnings announcement. This study has demonstrated the impact of including market sentiment and liquidity into the forecasting model for IV during earnings. This understanding in turn helps traders to formulate strategies that can circumvent the undefined risk associated with trading options strategies such as writing strangles.
Research limitations/implications
The first limitation of the study is that the firms included in the study are relatively large, and the results of the study can therefore not be generalized to medium sized and small firms. The second limitation lies in the current sample size, which in many cases was not enough to be able to draw reliable conclusions on. Scaling the sample size up is only a function of time and effort. This is easily overcome and should not be a limitation in the future. The third limitation concerns the measurement of the variables. Under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns (i.e. stock prices follow a random walk process), which means that the distribution of returns is symmetrical, one can estimate the probabilities of potential gains or losses associated with each amount. This means the standard deviation of securities returns, which is called historical volatility and is usually calculated as a moving average, can be used as a risk indicator. The prices used for the calculations are usually the closing prices, but Parkinson (1980) suggests that the day’s high and low prices would provide a better estimate of real volatility. One can also refine the analysis with high-frequency data. Such data enable the avoidance of the bias stemming from the use of closing (or opening) prices, but they have only been available for a relatively short time. The length of the observation period is another topic that is still under debate. There are no criteria that enable one to conclude that volatility calculated in relation to mean returns over 20 trading days (or one month) and then annualized is any more or less representative than volatility calculated over 130 trading days (or six months) and then annualized, or even than volatility measured directly over 260 trading days (one year). Nonetheless, the guidelines adopted in this study represent the best practices of researchers thus far.
Practical implications
This study has indicated that an earnings announcement can provide a volatility mispricing opportunity to allow an investor to profit from a sudden, sharp drop in IV. More specifically, the methodology developed by Tan and Bing is now well supported both empirically and theoretically in terms of qualifying opportunities that can be profitable because of the volatility crush. Conventionally, the option strategy of shorting strangles carries unlimited theoretical risk; however, the methodology has demonstrated that this risk can be substantially reduced if followed judiciously. This profitable strategy relies on a set of qualifying parameters including liquidity, premium collection, volatility differential, expected market move and market sentiment. Building upon this framework, the understanding of the effects of persistence and leverage resulted in further reducing the risk associated with trading options during earnings announcements. As a guideline, the sentiment and liquidity variables help to qualify a trade and the effects of persistence and leverage help to close the qualified trade.
Social implications
The authors find a positive association between the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement. These findings substantiate further the four factors that influence IV dynamics during earnings announcement and conclude that just looking at persistence and leverage alone will not generate profitable trading opportunities.
Originality/value
The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to the option buyer with substantial capital loss, even for a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers; however, the profit is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. The authors demonstrate the dynamics of IV as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the EFA, they extracted four constructs and the results from the CFA indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Using EFA, CFA and Bayesian analysis, how this model can help investors formulate the right strategy to achieve the best risk/reward mix is demonstrated. Using Bayesian estimation and IV differential to proxy for differences of opinion about term structures in option pricing, the authors find a positive association among the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement.
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Nadine Strauss and Christopher Holmes Smith
The purpose of this paper is to research how corporate communication regarding a specific corporate event (i.e. Tesla’s tweets about a new product) as well as the framing of both…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to research how corporate communication regarding a specific corporate event (i.e. Tesla’s tweets about a new product) as well as the framing of both the event itself and the market reactions therewith in the news media influence the formation of the share price of the respective company over time. In so doing, the study provides insights into the nature of market-moving information and the role of financial news flows in shaping market reactions in today’s high-frequency news and information environment.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a multi-method case study approach, combining quantitative intraday event studies with a qualitative text analysis of financial online news and tweets by Elon Musk and Twitter, the authors shed light on the complex interaction between market events, financial information and stock market reactions. The analysis covers a period of four days, encompassing the announcement and introduction of the new battery pack for Model S and X by Tesla as well as the accompanying and follow-up reporting by the financial news media.
Findings
Findings show that market reactions are driven by business events and expectations among the market rather than the follow-up reporting by financial news media. Financial online news instead seems to heavily rely on Elon Musk’s attention-triggering news to sustain its 24-h airtime with a variety of reporting tools, keeping the highly demanded audience engaged. Eventually, Twitter accounts of media visible companies and personalities, such as Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk, have been found to be useful market information sources for day traders and shareholders to trade at a profit.
Originality/value
The study is a response to recent discussions about the legitimacy of Twitter communication by CEOs or representatives of listed companies. The findings show that Twitter communication needs to be well considered in light of strict market regulations (e.g. SEC in the USA) regarding insider-trading and the publication of market-relevant information. In addition, corporate financial communication should avoid impetuous communication via social media channels as this could have deterrent effects on the market valuation of a listed company.
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Krishna Prasad and Nandan Prabhu
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the earnings surprise influences decision to make earnings announcements during or after the trading hours is influenced by the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the earnings surprise influences decision to make earnings announcements during or after the trading hours is influenced by the earnings surprise resulting from the difference between consensus earnings estimates and the actual reported earnings.
Design/methodology/approach
Event study methodology was employed to test the hypotheses relating to earnings surprise and timing of earnings announcements. Twelve quarterly earnings announcements of 30 companies, drawn from BSE SENSEX of India, were studied to test the hypothesized relationships.
Findings
The study has found statistically significant differences in the market responses to the earnings announcements made during and after the trading hours. The market demonstrated a negative response to the earnings announcements made after the trading hours. Further, the results of the logistic regression have shown that the presence of significant earnings surprises is likely to induce firms to make earnings announcements after the trading hours. The results indicate that those firms that intend to reduce the overreaction and underreaction to earnings surprises are likely to make earnings announcements after the trading hours.
Originality/value
This paper highlights the market response to the earnings announcement made during and after the regular trading hour. Further, the paper examines if the earnings surprise influences the decision to announce the results.
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Abdelkader Derbali, Shan Wu and Lamia Jamel
This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production announcements for energy futures (crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gasoline reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending (RBOB), Brent oil, London gas oil, natural gas and heating oil) market returns and volatilities.
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the impact of OPEC news on energy futures market returns and volatilities, the authors use a conditional quantile regression methodology during the period from April 01, 2013 to June 30, 2017.
Findings
From the empirical findings, the authors show a conditional dependence between energy futures returns and OPEC-based predictors; hence, the authors can find clear the significance of relationship in the process of financialization of the OPEC announcements and energy futures in the case of this paper. From the quantile-causality test, the authors find that the effect of OPEC news is important to energy futures. Specifically, OPEC announcements dates predict the quantiles of the conditional distribution of energy futures market returns.
Originality/value
The authors confirm the presence of unidirectional nexus between OPEC news and energy commodities futures in the long term.
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Fernanda Pagin, Matheus da Costa Gomes, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior and Luiz Eduardo Gaio
This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa Balcão, from August 2002 to August 2018, identifying which types of announcement (upgrade, downgrade or the same initial classification) cause variations in prices around the date of disclosure of the rating.
Design/methodology/approach
The event study methodology was applied to verify the market reaction around the announcement dates in a 21-day event window (−10, +10). The market model was used to calculate the abnormal returns (ARs), and subsequently, the accumulated ARs.
Findings
The hypotheses tests allowed to verify that the accumulated ARs are different, before and after the three types of rating announcements (upgrades, downgrades and the same classification); in upgrades, the mean of accumulated ARs increases in the days before the event, while in downgrades, this increase occurs after the event. This paper concluded that the rating announcements have an impact on the return of stock of the Brazilian market and that the market reaction occurs most of the time before the event happens, which indicates that the market can anticipate the information contained in the changes in credit ratings.
Practical implications
The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers, institutional investors and traders. It facilitates investment decision-making in the face of rating classification announcements. Market participants can pay more attention to their investment strategies and asset allocation during periods of risk rating announcements. Additionally, traders can understand the form of investment strategy for superior earnings.
Originality/value
The importance of the study is related to the fact that the results may explain the causes of specific movements in the Brazilian financial market related to a source of information that may or may not be able to influence the decisions of the financial agents that operate in this market. The justification is centred on the idea that, for investors who somehow react to the announcements, it is relevant to understand the impact of rating classifications on companies, as access to such information allows for more conscious decision-making.
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This paper investigates the announcement effect of shipping sale-and-leaseback (SLB) transactions. As an emerging source of financing, a growing deal of interest has been paid to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the announcement effect of shipping sale-and-leaseback (SLB) transactions. As an emerging source of financing, a growing deal of interest has been paid to the SLB. However, little is known about a variety of aspects of SLB transactions in the shipping industry. In this regard, this study examines the stock market reaction to the SLB announcements of shipping firms and their impact on shareholders' wealth.
Design/methodology/approach
A sample of 15 shipping SLB deals commenced by publicly listed Korean shipping companies during 2009–2023 are examined in this research. The announcement effect is measured by abnormal returns (AR) of their stocks based on the event study analysis.
Findings
It is found that the AR on the shipping SLB announcement date is, on average, −0.84% while there is no statistical significance. However, the results indicate that shareholders of shipping companies engaging in large-sized SLBs can experience positive AR around the announcement date.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt to investigate the announcement effect of SLB transactions on the shipping industry and their impact on shareholders' wealth. The findings in this research can offer implications for the financing decisions of shipping companies and investment decisions of stock investors.
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Petrus W.C. Choy, T.L. Yip, Kelvin Pang and Eunha Lee
The purpose of this study is to identify the critical success factors to international ship finance centre (ISFC) and to understand the reasons behind ship financing decision by…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to identify the critical success factors to international ship finance centre (ISFC) and to understand the reasons behind ship financing decision by shipowners and their views on the potential of Shanghai to become an ISFC in the near future.
Design/methodology/approach
Survey questionnaire and follow-up interviews were conducted. The survey of this study was conducted by firstly sending online questionnaire with interview questions via email and then carrying out interview either on telephone or in-person with the interview questions to collect factual data and views from individual interviewees.
Findings
This study identified governmental support and stable policy, sound and favourable legal system, advanced maritime cluster and dynamic source of finance as critical success factors which can help Shanghai to evolve into an international maritime centre with dual function as an ISFC which is a synthesis with the maritime sector of an international finance centre.
Originality/value
This paper is known to be the first to link international maritime centre with ISFC.
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