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Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting.

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit.

The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model.

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

The purpose of this paper is to provide implications for forecasting export of Korean shipbuilding industry that is suffering from deadlock in newbuilding orders, by investigating the causal relationship between freight rate earnings and newbuilding orders in the shipbuilding market.

Using a sample of freight rate earnings and newbuilding orders (in various terms) over the period 1996-2016, Granger causality between the two variables are examined in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. In addition, the potential asymmetry of the causal relationship according to bullish and bearish market conditions is also investigated using a combination of moving averages of different time spans.

The results indicate a uni-directional causality running from freight rate earnings to newbuilding orders. This finding implies that shipowners’ confidence in the shipping freight market is particularly important determinants in their newbuilding investment, which is consistent with the overconfidence hypothesis. However, the causality does not vary according to different market conditions.

This study offers several importation contributions. First, the authors provide evidence that newbuilding orders are positively associated with increase in freight rate earnings. Second, the authors document a causality running from changes in freight rate earnings to the volume of newbuilding orders. These findings support the theoretical expectation of the overconfidence hypothesis. Third, contrary to the findings in the financial market, there is no asymmetric response of the volume of newbuilding orders in bullish and bearish markets. Fourth, this study provide implications for management of Korean shipyards by providing evidence on driving force of newbuilding investment decisions of their customers (shipowners).

The findings in this study suggest implications for management of Korean shipyards by providing evidence on driving force of newbuilding investment decisions of their customers, as well as determinants of shipbuilding export, an important source of Korea’ national income.

The analysing the major determinants of shipbuilding exports, the findings in this study presents understanding of market cycles in shipbuilding, an important source of Korea’s national income and balance of payment.

This study is the first attempt to analyse the relationship between freight rate earnings and newbuilding investment in the context of the behavioural theory in economics.

Economic studies have always underlined the cyclical trends of many industries and their different relations to the macro-economic cycles. Shipping is one of those industries and it has been often characterised by peaks that have influenced both the trade patterns and industry investment structure (e.g. fleet, shipyard activity, freight rates). One of the main issues related with the cycles is the effect on overcapacity and prices for newbuilding and how the understanding of these patterns can help in preventing short-hand strategies. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate different effects of business elements on shipbuilding activity, in relation to different economic-cycle phases.

This paper proposes a non-linear econometric model to identify the relations between shipbuilding and economic cycles over the past 30 years. The research focuses on identifying the cycle characteristics and understanding the asymmetrical effect of economic- and business-related variables on its development.

The study underlines the presence of an asymmetric effect of several business variables on the shipbuilding productions, depending on the cyclical phases (i.e. market expansion or economic slowdown). Moreover, lagged effects seem to be stronger than contemporaneous variables.

The paper is a first attempt of using non-linear modelling to shipbuilding cycles, giving indications that could be included in relevant investment policies.

The authors employ the vessels that comprise the dry bulk segment of the maritime industry and examine how market sentiment affects the herding behavior of shipping investors in a real asset market.

The authors employ a threshold regression model to examine how changes in market sentiment can affect herding behavior in oceanic dry bulk shipping.

The results show that the behavioral aspect of investing, measured through intentional and unintentional herding, contrary to the results for financial markets, is affected by sentiment on the buy side (newbuildings) but not on the sell side (scrapping). Furthermore, the authors provide evidence that when market sentiment is negative, investors tend to follow market leaders (intentional herding), while, when sentiment is positive, unintentional herding leads to common investment practices among shipping investors.

The results have significant implications both for academics and for practitioners since they reflect a clear distinction of the pattern of investment decisions for real assets, compared to financial assets.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a real asset management investment appraisal of the performance of containerships as a primary segment within international shipping, to facilitate Islamic equity investment through a shipping fund. The objectives are to evaluate the risks and returns of shipping under the framework of Islamic equity finance, and to analyze the performance of investing in containerships over the long term, to appeal to retail and institutional clients of Malaysian asset management institutions.

Accordingly, the methodology adopts an investment analysis of a full population of historical data over a period of 20 years, to evaluate performance involving a maritime return on investment (MROI), internal rate of return (IRR), net yield and standard deviation measures of risk and return.

The findings reveal that while earnings are volatile in comparison to capital market expectations, unlevered, tax-free returns on containership investments outperform financial and other real assets.

Shipping is a strong growth industry with about 84 per cent of global trade carried out by the international shipping industry. The problem is that many Islamic asset management institutions and investors have essentially no exposure to Islamic investment in international shipping.

However, shipping is a highly capital-intensive industry, and currently 75 per cent of ship lending has been conducted by European banks and financed on a conventional basis. Post-financial crisis, ship owners, ship lenders and shipyards have all been exposed to the impact of over-levered balance sheets and debt finance. There is a demand for alternative sources of finance.

By communicating risk and reward more effectively, retail and institutional investors, as well as Islamic finance institutions, will realize that the social benefit of equity finance on the basis of profit sharing is more efficient at allocating investible resources than debt finance at interest, thereby increasing investment and economic growth.

The significance is that Islamic equity finance, rather than debt at the time-value of money, should enhance the development of international shipping.