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1 – 10 of 16This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.
Design/methodology/approach
The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.
Findings
This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.
Originality/value
This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.
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Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang
This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.
Findings
The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.
Originality/value
This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…
Abstract
Purpose
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.
Design/methodology/approach
Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.
Findings
Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.
Originality/value
In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.
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Francesco Busato, Maria Ferrara and Monica Varlese
This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.
Design/methodology/approach
While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.
Findings
Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.
Practical implications
The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.
Originality/value
This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.
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Abba Ya'u, Mohammed Abdullahi Umar, Nasiru Yunusa and Dhanuskodi Rengasamy
Most research on tax evasion focused on microeconomic variables revolving around perceptions and decisions of individual taxpayers. However, a new wave of research is now…
Abstract
Purpose
Most research on tax evasion focused on microeconomic variables revolving around perceptions and decisions of individual taxpayers. However, a new wave of research is now investigating the role of macroeconomic variables in inducing tax evasion. This study adds to the limited studies in this new direction of research. Previous studies found that inflation, low gross domestic product (GDP) growth and gross fixed capital formation causes recession, increases unemployment, raise interest rates, hurts both domestic and foreign direct investments. This study examined the relationship between these variables and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts a correlation research design with 2,300 data points collected from 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, tax to GDP ratio, gross fixed capital formation per GDP and the GDP annual growth report from each country for the period 2011–2020 was retrieved. Generalised least square regression technique was employed to analyse the data due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in the model and random effect was utilized based on the Hausman test. To avoid misspecification and biased result; therefore, all relevant test was conducted including the multicollinearity test.
Findings
The results indicate that GDP annual growth and gross fixed capital formation have a significant negative impact on estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings further indicate a negative but insignificant relationship between inflation and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes that both GDP annual growth rate and gross fixed capital formation negatively influence estimated tax evasion and the policy implications in the African continent were discussed.
Originality/value
The new findings on the effects of GDP annual growth, growth fixed capital formation and inflation on estimated tax evasion provide novel knowledge that is currently lacking in the current literature, specifically Sub-Saharan African continent.
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We test the pertinence of the unemployment invariance hypothesis (UIH) for a set of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.
Abstract
Purpose
We test the pertinence of the unemployment invariance hypothesis (UIH) for a set of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.
Design/methodology/approach
We empirically investigate the nexus between unemployment and labour force participation employing structural vector autoregressive methods for panel data.
Findings
We find that shocks in unemployment produce long-lasting, negative effects on participation, testifying to a discouraged worker effect.
Originality/value
Our results do not support the validity of the UIH in high-income economies. This has relevant implications for policy making and macroeconomic models.
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Md Jahidur Rahman, Hongtao Zhu and Sun Beiyi
This study explores the influence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) career experience on the investment behavior and risk tolerance of chief executive officers (CEOs)…
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the influence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) career experience on the investment behavior and risk tolerance of chief executive officers (CEOs). Specifically, this study focuses on CEOs' abilities to allocate financial assets and maintain solvency.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts a comprehensive approach to analyze financial assets and asset-to-liability ratios. Financial data and individual information of CEOs from listed companies are collected from 2020Q1 to 2021Q4, along with statistics on confirmed COVID-19 cases. Instrumental and alternative variables are used to examine the robustness and endogeneity of the research, ensuring a thorough analysis.
Findings
A significant positive correlation is revealed between CEOs' COVID-19 career experience and their capacity to effectively allocate financial assets. However, COVID-19 has a negative effect on firm performance in terms of solvency. These findings contribute to the empirical evidence linking the pandemic to company performance, representing part of the initial research in this area.
Originality/value
The study suggests that the implementation of potential policy implications, such as loose monetary policies and tax and fee reduction measures, may alleviate the tax burden on listed companies.
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Derrick Anquanah Cudjoe, Yumei He and Hanhui Hu
This study examines the impact of China's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Africa's global value chain (GVC) participation and economic upgrading.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the impact of China's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Africa's global value chain (GVC) participation and economic upgrading.
Design/methodology/approach
The study covered 48 African countries, cutting across the western, eastern, central, southern and northern subregions to cover the heterogeneity of the continent. The study adopted feasible generalized least squares panel VAR-Granger causality Wald test and system generalized methods of moments techniques for estimation.
Findings
Overall, China's FDI to Africa and US-Africa trade have a linear relationship with Africa's GVC involvement and economic upgrading. The findings suggest that although China-Africa trade has a positive impact on GVC engagement and upgrading, the marginal effect decreases in the face of US-Africa and EU-Africa trade.
Originality/value
This study provides new evidence on the impact of China's FDI and trade on African economies' GVC participation and economic upgrading. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically explore the effects of China's FDI and trade on Africa's GVC integration and economic upgrading as well as from the perspectives of backward and forward GVC participation. Furthermore, the study empirically examines whether the effects of Africa's economic cooperation with China relative to its GVC engagement differ from those of Europe (EU) and the US via a comparative regression.
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Farooq Ahmad, Abdul Rashid and Anwar Shah
This paper aims to empirically examine the presence of a balance sheet channel (BSC) of monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) using firm-level panel data of Pakistan. It also…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to empirically examine the presence of a balance sheet channel (BSC) of monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) using firm-level panel data of Pakistan. It also explores the role of financial sector development (FSD) and firm age (FAge) in formulating the effect of monetary policy (MP) on the investment decisions of firms.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors applied the two-step system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998) to carry out the empirical analysis. The final sample of the study includes 450 nonfinancial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PXS) during the period 1988–2021. The empirical framework of the study is based on the new classical model of investment. Different measures of MP are used to obtain the robust empirical evidence. To take into account the different dimensions of FSD, the index developed by Svirydzenka (2016) is utilized. To examine the moderating role of FSD and FAge, the interacted model is estimated, which enables the authors to estimate the MP effects at different percentiles of the moderating variables.
Findings
The study’s findings confirm the existence of BSC by revealing that MP instruments have negative, significant effects on firms’ investment decisions. These findings suggest that during periods of tight MP, firms significantly cut their investment expenditures. The results of the interacted model show that both FSD and FAge play an important role in lessening the adverse effects of MP on firms’ investment policy. Specifically, the calculated total effects suggest that the negative effect of MP on investment is considerably weaker at the higher percentiles of FSD and FAge.
Practical implications
The findings of the study have several important policy implications for different stakeholders. Specifically, the evidence suggests that the monetary authorities should keep in mind the adverse effects of MP while designing tight MP. The tight MP will have a negative effect on firm investment, which, in turn, will adversely affect firm growth and subsequently the growth rate and level of employment in the economy. Thus, during episodes of tight MP, the authorities should provide other facilities such as a friendly tax environment, better legal and regulatory framework, special credit arrangements, and provisions of loan guarantees. The findings of the moderating role suggest that the government may improve FSD to minify the adverse impacts of tight MP. Finally, the findings suggest that the government should design external financing-friendly policies to provide more opportunities to newly established firms to avoid tight MP’s effects.
Social implications
The findings of the moderating role suggest that the government may improve FSD to minify the adverse impacts of tight MP. Finally, the findings suggest that the government should design external financing-friendly policies to provide more opportunities to newly established firms to avoid tight MP’s effects.
Originality/value
There are three significant contributions of the paper. Firstly, it provides empirical evidence on the existing of BSC of MTM using firm-level panel data spanning over 43 years for an emerging and small economy, namely Pakistan. Secondly, it examines the moderating role of FSD and FAge in formulating the effects of MP. Finally, it presents the total impact of MP at different percentiles of FSD and FAge, which definitely broadens the understanding of MTM through indirect channels.
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