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Article
Publication date: 29 September 2022

Maria Babar, Habib Ahmad and Imran Yousaf

This study examines the information transmission (return and volatility spillovers) among energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas, Brent oil, heating oil, gasoil, gasoline) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the information transmission (return and volatility spillovers) among energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas, Brent oil, heating oil, gasoil, gasoline) and Asian stock markets which are net importers of energy (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand).

Design/methodology/approach

The information transmission is investigated by employing the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz, using daily data for the period January 2000 to May 2021.

Findings

A Strong connectedness is documented between the two classes of asset, especially during crisis periods. Our findings reveal that most of the energy markets, except gasoil and natural gas, are net transmitters of information, whereas all the stock markets, excluding Indonesia and Korea, are net recipients.

Practical implications

The findings are helpful for portfolio managers and institutional investors allocating funds to various asset classes in times of crisis.

Originality/value

All data is original.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 January 2023

Ujjawal Sawarn and Pradyumna Dash

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using weekly data from 2014 to 2020. This study also examines the US macro uncertainty and US financial stress spillover on these assets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time–frequency connectedness method to study the uncertainty spillover among the asset classes.

Findings

This study’s findings revealed that the uncertainty spillover is time-varying and peaked during the 2016 oil supply glut and COVID-19 pandemic. US stocks are the highest transmitter of uncertainty to all other assets, followed by the US dollar and oil. US stocks (US dollar and oil) transmit uncertainty in long (short) term. Furthermore, US macro uncertainty is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US stocks, industrial metals and oil markets. In contrast, US financial stress is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US bonds, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar and gold markets. US financial stress (US macro uncertainty) has long (short)-term effects on asset price volatility.

Originality/value

This study complements the studies on volatility spillover among the important asset classes. This study also includes recently financialized asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, agricultural and industrial commodities. This study examines the macro uncertainty and financial stress spillover on these assets.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2023

Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Johnson Ayobami Oliyide and Kingsley Opoku Appiah

This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from January 2013 to September 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed both the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) and time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) technique to examine the magnitude of static and dynamic directional spillovers and dependence of markets.

Findings

Results show that the magnitude of connectedness is extremely higher at quantile levels (q = 0.05 and q = 0.95) compared to those in the mean of the conditional distribution. This connotes that connectedness between green bonds and other assets increases with shock size for both negative and positive shocks. This further indicates that return shocks spread at a higher magnitude during extreme market conditions relative to normal periods. Additional analyses show the behavior of return transmission between green bond and other assets is asymmetric.

Practical implications

The findings of this study offer significant implications for portfolio investors, policymakers, regulatory authorities and investment community in terms of carefully assessing the unique characteristics offered by each markets in terms of return spillovers and dependence and diversifying the portfolios.

Originality/value

The study, first, uses a relatively new statistical technique, the QVAR advanced by Ando et al. (2018), to capture upper and lower tails’ quantile price connectedness and directional spillover. Therefore, the results possess adequate power against departure from mean-based conditional connectedness. Second, using a portfolio of green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets, the uniqueness of this study lies in the examination of the static and dynamic dependence of the markets examined.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 March 2023

Taicir Mezghani and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper aims to examine the dynamic spillover effects and network connectedness between the oil prices and the Islamic and conventional financial markets in the Gulf…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamic spillover effects and network connectedness between the oil prices and the Islamic and conventional financial markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The focus is on network connectedness during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the 2014–2016 oil crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors use daily data covering the period from January 1, 2007 to April 14, 2022.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies a spillover analysis and connectedness network to investigate the risk contagion among the Islamic and conventional stock–bond markets. The authors rely on Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures.

Findings

The results suggest that overall connectedness among financial market uncertainties increased during the global financial crisis, the oil price collapse of 2014–2016 and the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, the authors show that the contribution of oil shocks to the financial system is limited, as the oil market was a net receiver during the 2014 oil shock and the COVID-19 crisis. On the other hand, the Islamic and conventional stock markets are extensive sources of network effects on the oil market and Islamic and conventional bond markets. Furthermore, the authors found that the Sukuk market was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the conventional and Islamic stock markets were the highest transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Moreover, oil revealed a weak connectedness with the Islamic and conventional stock markets during the COVID-19 health crisis, implying that it helps provide diversification benefits for international portfolio investors.

Originality/value

This study contributes to this field by improving the understanding of the effect of fluctuations in oil prices on the dynamics of the volatility connection between oil and Islamic and conventional financial markets during times of stress through a network connectedness framework. The main results of this study highlight the role of oil in portfolio allocation and risk minimization when investing in Islamic and conventional assets.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 March 2023

Muhammad Akram, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Imran Riaz Malik and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects…

Abstract

Purpose

Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects of shocks. In this context, this research is a pioneering effort to investigate the direction and magnitude of return volatility spillovers between Pakistan’s financial markets and those of its key trade partners. This paper examines the relationship between return and volatility spillover in the financial markets of Pakistan and its major trading partners.

Design/methodology/approach

Ten countries are selected for empirical examination of dynamic connectedness among Pakistan and its major trading partner’s stock markets. This study utilizes a spillover index approach model and considers daily, weekly and monthly datasets spanning 25 years from 1995 to 2019.

Findings

The results indicate that stock markets provide efficient channels for return and volatility spillovers. Moreover, it is found that the intensity of spillovers during the financial crisis is more intense as these crises are major determinants of contagion; consequently, investors, speculators and policymakers use these events for their respective purposes.

Originality/value

Researchers, practitioners, policymakers and investors may all benefit from the findings in areas including risk management, portfolio diversification and trading methods.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 August 2014

Kim Hiang Liow

The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater China (GC) public property markets, as well as across the GC property markets, three Asian emerging markets and two developed markets of the USA and Japan over the period from January 1999 through December 2013.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the author employ the DCC methodology proposed by Engle (2002) to examine the time-varying nature in return co-movements among the public property markets. Second, the author appeal to the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the volatility spillover effects across the real estate markets. Finally, the spillover framework is able to combine with recent developments in time series econometrics to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic volatility co-movements regionally and globally. The author also examine whether there are volatility spillover regimes, as well as explore the relationship between the volatility spillover cycles and the correlation spillover cycles.

Findings

Results indicate moderate return co-movements and volatility spillover effects within and across the GC region. Cross-market volatility spillovers are bidirectional with the highest spillovers occur during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. Comparatively, the Chinese public property market's volatility is more exogenous and less influenced by other markets. The volatility spillover effects are subject to regime switching with two structural breaks detected for the five sub-groups of markets examined. There is evidence of significant dependence between the volatility spillover cycles across stock and public real estate, due to the presence of unobserved common shocks.

Research limitations/implications

Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-term price relationship but also the short-term market volatility interaction and return correlation structure, the results of this study can shed more light on the extent to which investors can benefit from regional and international diversification in the long run and short-term within and across the GC securitized property sector, with Asian emerging market and global developed markets of Japan and USA. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, it would be interesting to examine how the two co-movement measures (volatility spillovers and correlation spillovers) can be combined in optimal covariance forecasting in global investing that includes stock and public real estate markets.

Originality/value

This is one of very few papers that comprehensively analyze the dynamic return correlations and conditional volatility spillover effects among the three GC public property markets, as well as with their selected emerging and developed partners over the last decade and during the GFC period, which is the main contribution of the study. The specific contribution is to characterize and measure cross-public real estate market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several conditional “volatility spillover” indices. In this case, a volatility spillover index is defined as share of total return variability in one public real estate market attributable to volatility surprises in another public real estate market.

Article
Publication date: 5 March 2024

Robert Owusu Boakye, Lord Mensah, Sanghoon Kang and Kofi Osei

The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover and connectedness measures in a generalized VAR framework. The author calculates the net transmitters or receivers of shocks between two assets and visualizes their strength using a network analysis tool.

Findings

The study found low systemic risks across all assets and countries. However, we found higher systemic risks in the forex market than in the stock and bond markets, and in South Africa than in other countries. The dynamic analysis found time-varying connectedness return shocks, which increased during the peak periods of the first and second waves of the pandemic. We found both gold and oil as net receivers of shocks. Overall, over half of all assets were net receivers, and others were net transmitters of return shocks. The network connectedness plot shows high net pairwise connectedness from Morocco to South Africa stock market.

Practical implications

The study has implications for policymakers to develop the capacities of local investors and markets to limit portfolio outflows during a crisis.

Originality/value

Previous studies have analyzed spillovers across asset classes in a single country or a single asset across countries. This paper contributes to the literature on network connectedness across assets and countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2022

Ngo Thai Hung

This paper investigates the dynamic intercorrelation among cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and conventional financial assets (gold, oil and S&P 500).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the dynamic intercorrelation among cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and conventional financial assets (gold, oil and S&P 500).

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic contemporaneous nexus has been analyzed using spillover index developed and extended by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) and Kyrtsou-Labys (2006) nonlinear causality tests. This study is implemented using the daily data spanning from January 2013 to December 2021.

Findings

First, using the spillover index, the authors find evidence that the S&P 500 was a net transmitter of volatility from oil and gold markets, but a net receiver of volatility from Bitcoin. Return spillovers from crude oil were transmitted first to gold, and Bitcoin markets and return spillovers from gold were transmitted to Bitcoin. Second, Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests provide us further insights into the lead-lag interconnections among the four key considered variables from the economic perspective. Specifically, a close inspection of these empirical results, the integration of the four key assets is significant. Similarly, price fluctuation dependency among Bitcoin, stock, gold and oil markets is generally minimal, but it strengthens throughout the COVID-19 period.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study employing the spillover index Diebold-Yilmaz alongside with Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests not only to capture the directional return spillover effects but also to highlight the potential presence of asymmetric causality relationships, nonlinear effects among assets under investigation that the previous studies have been ignored in these relations. Therefore, the main contribution of this article to the related literature in this field is significant.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2023

Oumayma Gharbi, Yousra Trichilli and Mouna Boujelbéne

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at…

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at risk of the US Fintech stock market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the methodologies proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet approach.

Findings

The wavelet coherence results show that during the COVID-19 period, there was a strong co-movement among value at risk and each selected variables in the medium-run and the long-run scales. Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) method proved that the total connectedness index raised significantly during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the overconfidence bias and the financial stress index are the net transmitters, while the value at risk and herding behavior variables are the net receivers.

Research limitations/implications

This study offers some important implications for investors and policymakers to explain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk of Fintech industry.

Practical implications

The study findings might be useful for investors to better understand the time–frequency connectedness and the volatility spillover effects in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Future research may deal with investors' ability of constructing portfolios with another alternative index like cryptocurrencies which seems to be a safer investment.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the continuous wavelet decomposition technique and spillover volatility to examine the connectedness between investor behavioral biases, uncertainty factors, and Value at Risk of US Fintech stock markets, while taking into account the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 June 2020

Sercan Demiralay, Nikolaos Hourvouliades and Athanasios Fassas

This paper aims to examine dynamic equicorrelations (DECO) and directional volatility spillover effects among four energy futures markets, namely, West Texas Intermediate crude…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine dynamic equicorrelations (DECO) and directional volatility spillover effects among four energy futures markets, namely, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending gasoline, by using a multivariate fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH–DECO–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the spillover index technique.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis uses the dynamic equicorrelation model of Engle and Kelly (2012) to examine time-varying correlations at equilibrium. The authors further analyze dynamic volatility transmission among energy futures by using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) dynamic spillover index based on generalized value-at-risk framework.

Findings

The empirical results provide evidence of heightened equicorrelations at times of financial turmoil. More specifically, the dynamic spillover analysis shows that volatility is transmitted predominantly from crude oil to the other markets and risk transfer among four markets exhibits asymmetries. Spillovers are found to be highly responsive to dramatic events such as the 9/11 terror attack, 2008–2009 global financial crisis and 2014–2016 oil glut.

Practical implications

The results of this study have important practical implications for investors, portfolio managers and energy policymakers as the presence of time-varying co-movements and spillovers suggests the need for dynamic trading strategies. There are also implications regarding risk management practices, as there is evidence of increased volatility transmission at times of financial turmoil and uncertainty. Finally, the results provide insights to policymakers in a better understanding of the spillover dynamics.

Originality/value

This paper investigates the DECOs and spillover effects among crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoline futures markets. To the best of the knowledge, this is one of a few studies that examine co-movements and risk transfer in energy futures in a comprehensive framework.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 4000