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The applicability and shortcomings of a well-defined cost-estimating process to forecasting resources required for developing and fielding innovative technologies are examined. Whereas the process itself provides a suitable approach for estimating the cost of any program, investment is required for collecting historical data on analogous programs to serve as the foundation for the estimating methodologies. Particular challenges in costing innovation are summarized. An appropriate form of the cost probability distribution for research programs is offered.