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Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Achmad Rifa’i

With the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, many countries attempted to control the spread of the virus by implementing a lockdown policy. This study investigates the…

Abstract

With the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, many countries attempted to control the spread of the virus by implementing a lockdown policy. This study investigates the impact of the lockdown in Jakarta in 2020 on the economy. The database used the Input–Output (IO) 2015. We employed a bottom-up approach by selecting Jakarta to generate the shock on the economy since only Jakarta constantly applied the lockdown policy named Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy in 2020. We earned some useful information on whether the shock in Jakarta significantly impacted the national economy as well as other provinces. Our empirical results revealed that the PSBB policy reduced output in Jakarta by 7.20%, value-added declined by about 8.04%, income waned by 8.08%, and labour shrank by 7.68%. We also found that national output decreased by 1.30% in other provinces, especially those depending on the agricultural sector.

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-043-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 October 2022

Babayo Sule, Usman Sambo and Muhammad Yusuf

This study aims to examine the threats posed by cybercrimes toward the quest for achieving a reliable digital economy and to identify practical strategies for countering the crime.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the threats posed by cybercrimes toward the quest for achieving a reliable digital economy and to identify practical strategies for countering the crime.

Design/methodology/approach

A qualitative phenomenological paradigm was used as the methodology. Both primary and secondary sources were consulted for data collection. A thematic analytical interpretation was used for data analysis.

Findings

This study discovered that Nigeria is a leverage environment for using digital economy as a means of diversifying the economy owing to population bulge, and an increase patronage of internet and digital space but the threats of cyberfraudsters is ostracising a substantial number from using it which is decreasing the performance of the digital economy.

Research limitations/implications

The research is limited by the scarcity of resources to widen the horizon of the study particularly the fieldwork and the rampant incidences of cybercrime in Nigeria which poses a difficult task for studying the phenomenon. In addition, this study is constrained by the confidentiality in releasing data owing to the sensitivity of the subject of study and its relationship to national security.

Practical implications

This study presents some suggestions that are plausible in countering the crimes and enhancing the digital economy in Nigeria through effective surveillance, massive information and communication technology (ICT) awareness creation for users and severe penitent sanctions for cybercriminals will help in securing digital spaces.

Social implications

This study has social implications including the suggestion for simplifying digital transactions that will save time, increases economic activities and passive multiple stream income for Nigerians and ease of doing business with less risk of robbery and other cumbersome tasks.

Originality/value

This study has originality value because after the survey of the existing literature, a field work is conducted to have the views of experts on the subject of study which adds value to the subject and originality of the findings.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 30 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Constructing Realities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-546-4

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Sharmistha Chowdhury, Revti Raman Sharma and Yang Yu

Given the surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging economies (EEs) during the past four decades, inward FDI (IFDI) has spawned a rich, scholarly conversation on the…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging economies (EEs) during the past four decades, inward FDI (IFDI) has spawned a rich, scholarly conversation on the topic. This paper aims to review the literature regarding EE IFDI determinants and the impact of IFDI on those economies. It also aims to provide some future research directions.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review with thematic analysis of 372 articles on the topic, published between 1991 and 2021, is undertaken. In addition to using the relevant keywords, the snowballing approach was used to manually track the literature.

Findings

This review highlights EE IFDI determinants such as institutional quality, corruption and intellectual property rights, regional trade agreements and distances, formal and informal institutions and their interactions, national and subnational diversity and policy expectations. Further, IFDI impacts EEs both at macro- and micro-levels. This review also indicates a substantial increase in research during the period 2000 to 2010 and a decline thereafter; it also indicates Africa and Latin America being under-researched, with a focus on Africa recently increasing.

Research limitations/implications

Rich research opportunities exist in examining the mechanisms (mediators) and conditions (moderators) that influence relationships between the antecedents of IFDI and their outcomes. Further opportunities exist in examining the role of the context and in undertaking a multilevel analysis.

Originality/value

This review provides an understanding of what influences multinational enterprises’ FDI to EEs and how it impacts those economies. It also raises potential future research questions. It provides a holistic understanding of the chosen scope and domain.

Details

Review of International Business and Strategy, vol. 33 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2059-6014

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Jan Nevima

The aim of this chapter is to draw attention to the changes that have taken place in Czechia in the last 20 years in the field of foreign trade, focussing on the key milestones of…

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to draw attention to the changes that have taken place in Czechia in the last 20 years in the field of foreign trade, focussing on the key milestones of 2002, 2012 and 2022. The chapter also explains the important link between the performance of foreign trade and economic growth; this link has its support in theory, and above all in empiricism. The importance of foreign trade for economic growth is key, especially from the point of view of changes in the territorial and commodity structure, which saw several important changes in the observed period 2002–2022, so we can relevantly explain the effects on the economic growth of Czechia. However, the chapter finds a connection with yet another economic category, which is competitiveness. The method of measuring and subsequent ranking of competitiveness is also of utmost importance. If the economy is to be competitive, it must have its own strategy, and this directly concerns the key instruments of pro-export policy.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2022

Toan Pham-Khanh Tran, Ngoc Phu Tran, Phuc Van Nguyen and Duc Hong Vo

The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely…

Abstract

Purpose

The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely ignored in the existing literature. This paper investigates how fiscal deficit moderates the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy for 32 Asian countries for the past two decades since 2000.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use various techniques, which allow cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in panel data analysis, to examine this relationship in both the long run and short run. The analysis also considers the marginal effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy at different degrees of fiscal deficits.

Findings

Empirical findings from this paper indicate that an increase in government expenditure and fiscal deficit will increase the shadow economy size. Interestingly, the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy will intensify with a greater degree of the budget deficit. The authors also find that enhancing economic growth to improve income per capita and extending international trade appears to reduce the shadow economy in the Asian countries.

Practical implications

The authors consider that policies targeting reducing shadow economy should follow conventional economic policies on economic growth, unemployment and inflation.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study conducted to examine the moderating role of fiscal deficit in the government expenditure–shadow economy nexus in Asian countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 12 February 2024

Government institutions located in the capital, Khartoum, where major fighting persists, have been severely disrupted. Some have tried to relocate and re-establish themselves in…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285155

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 28 June 2023

Nur Faiza Ishak and Vinesh Thiruchelvam

The purpose of this study is to discuss policy review in the interest of sustainable innovations in Malaysia’s public procurement. This study also offers the overall relationship…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to discuss policy review in the interest of sustainable innovations in Malaysia’s public procurement. This study also offers the overall relationship between existing policies related to sustainable innovations in public procurement and the coherences towards the four dimensions of sustainable innovations.

Design/methodology/approach

This study outlines the current policies in Malaysia which are related to sustainable innovation initiatives and explores the cohesiveness that appears disconnected and understood separately. Policy content analysis is conducted on the current policies related to sustainable innovations in the context of Malaysia’s public procurement.

Findings

This study observed that the current policies related to sustainable innovations in public procurement are actually interconnected with each other through a hierarchical framework. This study also demonstrates that the 12th Malaysia Plan has comprehensively encompassed every aspect of the environment, social, economic and innovation to contribute to one primary goal – green economic growth.

Research limitations/implications

The proposed policy framework is expected to be beneficial for the administrator executive among the civil servant to connect the independent policies and, at the same time, contribute to the overall goal of green economic growth. Through a broad policy structure too, this study helps the industry player to recognize their potential in any area related to sustainable innovation.

Originality/value

The policy framework illustrated is new to the literature, especially in Malaysia’s context. The compilation of current policy grounded by the 12th Malaysia Plan has not been presented in any publications.

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Toan Khanh Tran Pham and Quyen Hoang Thuy To Nguyen Le

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating role of public debt in government spending and the informal economy nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

By utilizing a data set spanning from 2000 to 2017 of 32 Asian economies, the study has employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of government spending on the informal economy at different degrees of public debt.

Findings

The results indicate that an increase in government spending and public debt leads to an expansion of the informal economy in the region. Interestingly, the positive effect of government spending on the informal economy will increase with a rise in public debt.

Originality/value

This study stresses the role of government spending and public debt on the informal economy in Asian nations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of public debt in the public spending-informal economy nexus.

Details

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-333X

Keywords

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