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Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2022

Toan Pham-Khanh Tran, Ngoc Phu Tran, Phuc Van Nguyen and Duc Hong Vo

The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely…

Abstract

Purpose

The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely ignored in the existing literature. This paper investigates how fiscal deficit moderates the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy for 32 Asian countries for the past two decades since 2000.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use various techniques, which allow cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in panel data analysis, to examine this relationship in both the long run and short run. The analysis also considers the marginal effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy at different degrees of fiscal deficits.

Findings

Empirical findings from this paper indicate that an increase in government expenditure and fiscal deficit will increase the shadow economy size. Interestingly, the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy will intensify with a greater degree of the budget deficit. The authors also find that enhancing economic growth to improve income per capita and extending international trade appears to reduce the shadow economy in the Asian countries.

Practical implications

The authors consider that policies targeting reducing shadow economy should follow conventional economic policies on economic growth, unemployment and inflation.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study conducted to examine the moderating role of fiscal deficit in the government expenditure–shadow economy nexus in Asian countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 12 February 2024

Government institutions located in the capital, Khartoum, where major fighting persists, have been severely disrupted. Some have tried to relocate and re-establish themselves in…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285155

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 28 June 2023

Nur Faiza Ishak and Vinesh Thiruchelvam

The purpose of this study is to discuss policy review in the interest of sustainable innovations in Malaysia’s public procurement. This study also offers the overall relationship…

1874

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to discuss policy review in the interest of sustainable innovations in Malaysia’s public procurement. This study also offers the overall relationship between existing policies related to sustainable innovations in public procurement and the coherences towards the four dimensions of sustainable innovations.

Design/methodology/approach

This study outlines the current policies in Malaysia which are related to sustainable innovation initiatives and explores the cohesiveness that appears disconnected and understood separately. Policy content analysis is conducted on the current policies related to sustainable innovations in the context of Malaysia’s public procurement.

Findings

This study observed that the current policies related to sustainable innovations in public procurement are actually interconnected with each other through a hierarchical framework. This study also demonstrates that the 12th Malaysia Plan has comprehensively encompassed every aspect of the environment, social, economic and innovation to contribute to one primary goal – green economic growth.

Research limitations/implications

The proposed policy framework is expected to be beneficial for the administrator executive among the civil servant to connect the independent policies and, at the same time, contribute to the overall goal of green economic growth. Through a broad policy structure too, this study helps the industry player to recognize their potential in any area related to sustainable innovation.

Originality/value

The policy framework illustrated is new to the literature, especially in Malaysia’s context. The compilation of current policy grounded by the 12th Malaysia Plan has not been presented in any publications.

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Toan Khanh Tran Pham and Quyen Hoang Thuy To Nguyen Le

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating role of public debt in government spending and the informal economy nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

By utilizing a data set spanning from 2000 to 2017 of 32 Asian economies, the study has employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of government spending on the informal economy at different degrees of public debt.

Findings

The results indicate that an increase in government spending and public debt leads to an expansion of the informal economy in the region. Interestingly, the positive effect of government spending on the informal economy will increase with a rise in public debt.

Originality/value

This study stresses the role of government spending and public debt on the informal economy in Asian nations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of public debt in the public spending-informal economy nexus.

Details

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-333X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2023

Clement Ola Adekoya, Joseph Kehinde Fasae and Adesola Victoria Alade

Education is a strong pillar to national development. It is vital to ensure sustainable higher education development (SHED) in a bid to facilitate global development. This study…

Abstract

Purpose

Education is a strong pillar to national development. It is vital to ensure sustainable higher education development (SHED) in a bid to facilitate global development. This study aims to investigate academic libraries, information and communication technology (ICT) use and SHED.

Design/methodology/approach

Descriptive survey research design was used for this study. The population of the study was 607 librarians in the 41 public university libraries in Southern Nigeria. Total enumeration and purposive sampling techniques were used for this study. The instrument of data collection was questionnaire. Descriptive statistics was used for the data analysis.

Findings

It was found that qualified teachers and promotion of scholarship constitute SHED. The extent of contribution of academic libraries to SHED is high. Academic libraries face a number of challenges in their effort to provide information services for the actualisation of the SHED. The extent of use of ICT in SHED is high. It was therefore recommended that academic libraries and ICT should be adequately used to accomplish SHED in Nigeria.

Research limitations/implications

This study will contribute to the body of literature on how academic libraries and the use of ICT can contribute to SHED.

Practical implications

While SHED is central to global development, the role of academic libraries and the use of ICT should be unanimously embraced by all the stakeholders in education industry.

Originality/value

SHED is inevitable in the contemporary era. This study reveals that academic libraries and ICT use are vital in achieving SHED.

Details

Information Discovery and Delivery, vol. 52 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-6247

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 February 2024

Ibrahim Mathker Saleh Alotaibi, Mohammad Omar Mohammad Alhejaili, Doaa Mohamed Ibrahim Badran and Mahmoud Abdelgawwad Abdelhady

This paper aims to examine the extent to which these reforms address the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s previous investment framework. Long viewed as a hostile environment in which…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the extent to which these reforms address the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s previous investment framework. Long viewed as a hostile environment in which to do business, the Saudi Government has enacted a broad sweep of measures aimed at restoring investor confidence in central aspects of the country’s evolving private law framework.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper offers a timely assessment of the raft of foreign investment reforms, both legislative and regulatory, that have been introduced in Saudi Arabia over the last decade.

Findings

The paper will proceed by outlining the perceived failings of the old investment regime before going on to reforms.

Originality/value

It will consider the remaining obstacles to the flow of foreign investment in Saudi Arabia in the context of the dual forces that have historically defined the Kingdom’s ambivalent investment law regime.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2023

Qi Kang, Carlos E. Carpio, Chenggang Wang and Zeng Tang

This research examined the impacts of diversified income from trading caterpillar fungus on pastoral households' livestock production and income. The specific objectives were to…

Abstract

Purpose

This research examined the impacts of diversified income from trading caterpillar fungus on pastoral households' livestock production and income. The specific objectives were to identify the main factors underlying participation in caterpillar fungus trade and to explore the impacts of a diversified income from trading fungus on livestock production activities and income.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were collected from a pastoral household survey (n = 503) in five Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures. The authors employed propensity score matching (PSM) procedures to estimate the effects of participation in trading caterpillar fungus.

Findings

Pastoral households participating in caterpillar fungus activities maintain smaller herds, sell fewer animals for profit, slaughter more livestock for family consumption and experience fewer livestock deaths compared to nonparticipants. There is also some evidence that pastoral households participating in caterpillar fungus activities have a higher annual income compared to nonparticipants.

Research limitations/implications

A direct measure of grassland degradation was not included due to the data limitation. The estimated average treatment effects could differ under different observed households' characteristics.

Originality/value

This study fills a gap in the literature on the impacts of diversified income on livestock production activities. The authors provide a new perspective on the controversy over the extraction of caterpillar fungus. This study contributes to exploring the dual role of income diversification in addressing poverty and grassland resource degradation for Tibetan pastoral communities.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Toan Khanh Tran Pham

The studies that explore the impacts of national intellectual capital on informal economy are scant. Moreover, the effect of an external factor such as institutional quality that…

Abstract

Purpose

The studies that explore the impacts of national intellectual capital on informal economy are scant. Moreover, the effect of an external factor such as institutional quality that moderates this relationship has largely been neglected in previous studies. Institutions are considered important pillars to accumulate national intellectual capital and reduce shadow economy. As such, this paper aims to investigate how institutional quality moderates the effects of national intellectual capital on informal economy in 17 Asian countries from 2000 to 2018.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the generalized method of moments techniques, which allow cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in panel data, to examine the moderating role of institutional quality on the relationship between national intellectual capital and informal economy. Various tests are conducted to ensure the robustness of the findings.

Findings

Empirical findings from this paper indicate that an increase in national intellectual capital and institutional quality declines the informal economy. Interestingly, better institutional quality aggravates the negative effects of national intellectual capital on reducing the size of informal economy. The author also finds that enhancing international trade and economic growth results in a decrease in the informal economy in Asian countries.

Practical implications

Empirical findings offer policymakers an indication of the relationships between national intellectual capital, institutional quality and informal economy, pointing out that national intellectual capital and institutional quality should be strengthened to allow Asian countries to limit the informal economy.

Originality/value

This study provides a conceptual model through which the moderating role of institutional quality on the national intellectual capital–informal economy nexus can be recognized. This approach has thus far not been investigated in the existing literature. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study makes an original contribution to the empirical of national intellectual capital and informal economy nexus and produces new insights into the fields of the moderating effects of institutional quality on this nexus.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal , vol. 34 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Duc Hong Vo and Ngoc Phu Tran

Countries worldwide aim to improve their comparative advantages by efficiently using scarce resources for economic growth and development. While many studies have been conducted…

Abstract

Purpose

Countries worldwide aim to improve their comparative advantages by efficiently using scarce resources for economic growth and development. While many studies have been conducted to measure intellectual capital at the firm's level, measuring it at the national level has been under-examined. In addition, while the important role of national intellectual capital in economic growth has been theoretically recognized in literature, this important link has largely been ignored in empirical analyses.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the newly developed index of national intellectual capital from Vo and Tran's (2022) study to examine its effects on national economic growth in the long run. The dynamic common correlated effects technique and the pooled mean group estimation are used on the sample of 23 economies in the Asia–Pacific region from 2000 to 2020.

Findings

Findings from this study confirm the positive and significant contribution of the national intellectual capital to economic growth in the region. The authors also find that, as a feedback effect, economic growth will also enhance and improve the accumulation of national intellectual capital.

Practical implications

The findings of this paper provide valuable evidence and implications for policymakers in managing and improving national intellectual capital in the Asia–Pacific region.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study to examine the impact of national intellectual capital on economic growth in the long run in the Asia–Pacific economies.

Details

Journal of Intellectual Capital, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1469-1930

Keywords

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