Search results
1 – 10 of 94Janusz Brzeszczyński, Jerzy Gajdka, Tomasz Schabek and Ali M Kutan
This study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging…
Abstract
Purpose
This study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging markets.
Design/methodology/approach
Empirical analysis is executed using the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announcements about its monetary policy covering the data from the broad financial market in its three main segments: stock market, foreign exchange market and bonds market. The reactions are measured relative to the changes in the NBP announcements and also with respect to investors' expectations. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models with dummy variables are used as the main methodological tool.
Findings
Bonds market and foreign exchange market are the most sensitive market segments, while interest rate and money supply are the most influential types of announcements. The changes of the revealed new macroeconomic figures had more impact on assets' prices movements than the deviations from their expectations. Moreover, greater diversity of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members' opinions on the voted motions, captured in the MPC voting reports, is associated with more cases of statistically significant NBP communication events.
Practical implications
The findings have direct relevance for fund managers, portfolio analysts, investors and also for financial market regulators.
Originality/value
The results provide novel evidence about how the emerging financial market responds to monetary policy announcements. They help understand the nature of the impact of public information on financial assets' valuation and on movements of their prices, analysed comprehensively in three market segments, in the emerging market environment.
Details
Keywords
Małgorzata Pawłowska, Krzysztof Gajewski and Wojciech Rogowski
The aim of this study is to understand the determinants of relationship between banks and nonfinancial corporations within Poland (which are considered relationship banking from…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to understand the determinants of relationship between banks and nonfinancial corporations within Poland (which are considered relationship banking from this point onward).
Design/methodology/approach
The main sources of data used in the study are the large credit database (credit register of the National Bank of Poland (NBP)) and other aggregated data, including data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the NBP. Econometric panel logit methods have been used to test how different factors affect bank–firm relationships. Three main groups of factors have been investigated: the characteristics of the firm (i.e., size, ownership type, and R&D activity); the characteristics of the financial sector (i.e., competition in the banking sector); and macroeconomic conditions.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that Polish firms readily establish single-bank relationships, and firms with the highest quality of credit portfolios borrow often from multiple creditors. All conducted estimations demonstrated that the relationship between financing from a single bank and from foreign capital had a positive sign. Also, a decrease in concentration in the banking sector, which may be identified with an increase in competition, supports the establishment of relationship banking.
Research limitations/implications
The study was performed using the data from large exposure database collected for supervisory purposes. Exposures (credits, derivatives, etc.) larger than 500 thousand PLN (approx. 120 thousand EUR) were only considered. Future research on bank–firm relationships should focus on the influence of financing costs, maintaining relationships when the borrower is in a difficult financial position, and other unique features of banks using the strategy of relationship financing.
Practical implications
The understanding of the characteristics of bank–firm relationships can help to improve banking practice and supervisory policy in Poland.
Originality/value
This study makes a noticeable contribution to the understanding of the banking sector and its relationships with nonfinancial corporations in Poland. It is the first empirical study on such a large sample of panel data from Polish banking sector and industries, too.
Details
Keywords
Poland has made rapid economic advancement since introducing its shock therapy program January 1,1990. Inflation is now below 22 percent and real growth exceeds 5.1 percent. Poland…
Abstract
Poland has made rapid economic advancement since introducing its shock therapy program January 1,1990. Inflation is now below 22 percent and real growth exceeds 5.1 percent. Poland's future will be highly dependent on the development of its financial institutions. The commercial banks that had been branches of the National Bank of Poland and several other major banks are leading the privatization process. Five banks have been privatized and others will follow shortly. Cooperative — twinning — arrangements are being developed to provide international banking expertise and financial support for Poland's commercial banks. The profit maximizing financial institutions will be the primary vehicles to fund the development of Poland's market‐based economy. The privatized institutions will support the planned initial public offerings and joint business arrangements that are developing with western companies.
Rafał Wolski, Monika Bolek, Jerzy Gajdka, Janusz Brzeszczyński and Ali M. Kutan
This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers, as a group of institutional investors, make decisions in response to central bank’s communication as well as other information in relation to various behavioural inclinations.
Design/methodology/approach
A comprehensive study was conducted based on a questionnaire, which is composed of three main parts exploring: (1) general information about the funds under the management of the surveyed group of fund managers, (2) factors that influence the investment process with an emphasis on the National Bank of Poland communication and (3) behavioural inclinations of the surveyed group. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was applied for measuring the reliability of the survey questionnaire and then chi-squared test was used to investigate the relationships between the answers provided in the survey.
Findings
The central bank’s communication matters for investors, but its impact on their decisions appears to be only moderate. Interest rates were found to be the most important announcements for investment fund managers. The stock market was the most popular market segment where the investments were made. The ultra-short time horizon played no, or only small, role in the surveyed fund managers’ decisions as most of them invested in a longer horizon covering 1 to 5 years. Moreover, most respondents declared that they considered in their decisions the information about market expectations published in the media. Finally, majority of the fund managers manifested limited rationality and were subject to behavioural biases, but the decisions and behavioural inclinations were independent and, in most cases, they did not influence each other.
Practical implications
The results reported in this study can be used in practice to better understand and to improve the fund managers’ decision-making processes.
Originality/value
Apart from the commonly tested behavioural biases in the group of institutional investors in the existing literature, such as loss aversion, disposition effect or overconfidence, this paper also focuses on the less intensively analysed behavioural inclinations, i.e. framing, illusion of the control, representativeness, sunk cost effect and fast thinking. The originality of this study further lies in the way the research was conducted through interviews with fund managers, who were found to be subject to behavioural biases, although those behavioural inclinations did not influence their investment decisions. This finding indicates that professionalism and collectivism in the group of institutional investors protect them from irrationality.
Details
Keywords
Anna Szelągowska and Ilona Skibińska-Fabrowska
The monetary policy implementation and corporate investment are closely intertwined. The aim of modern monetary policy is to mitigate economic fluctuations and stabilise economic…
Abstract
Research Background
The monetary policy implementation and corporate investment are closely intertwined. The aim of modern monetary policy is to mitigate economic fluctuations and stabilise economic growth. One of the ways of influencing the real economy is influencing the level of investment by enterprises.
Purpose of the Chapter
This chapter provides evidence on how monetary policy affected corporate investment in Poland between 1Q 2000 and 3Q 2022. We investigate the impact of Polish monetary policy on investment outlays in contexts of high uncertainty.
Methodology
Using the correlation analysis and the regression model, we show the relation between the monetary policy and the investment outlays of Polish enterprises. We used the least squares method as the most popular in linear model estimation. The evaluation includes model fit, independent variable significance and random component, i.e. constancy of variance, autocorrelation, alignment with normal distribution, along with Fisher–Snedecor test and Breusch–Pagan test.
Findings
We find that Polish enterprises are responsive to changes in monetary policy. Hence, the corporate investment level is correlated with the effects of monetary policy (especially with the decision on the central bank's basic interest rate changes). We found evidence that QE policy has a positive impact on Polish investment outlays. The corporate investment in Poland is positively affected by respective monetary policies through Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate, inflation, corporate loans, weighted average interest rate on corporate loans.
Details
Keywords
Poland faces an uncertain second quarter, the economy having slowed to its lowest point since late 2012. Questions are being raised over the outlook for interest rates under new…
Mariusz Kicia and Dominika Kordela
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted…
Abstract
Research Background
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.
Purpose of the Chapter
Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.
Methodology
In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.
Findings
Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.
Details
Keywords
Hanna Augustyniak, Jacek Laszek, Krzysztof Olszewski and Joanna Waszczuk
The purpose of this paper is to describe the property valuation methods that are applied in Poland. It shows that they base on international standards and are a reliable source of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to describe the property valuation methods that are applied in Poland. It shows that they base on international standards and are a reliable source of information for international investors and banks.
Design/methodology/approach
The valuation methods are described and critically assessed, potential problems are pointed out. The analysis of lending risk is analysed on data about non-performing loans (NPL).
Findings
Polish valuation methods are in line with international methods, but there are some risks, like small number of transactions, subjective behaviour of valuers. The low NPL ratios indicate that the valuation works correctly.
Practical implications
The Polish valuation methods are trustworthy, non-performing mortgage ratios are low, however, banks and investors should ask whether there is a local zoning plan. Moreover, they should look critically at the comparables that were used during the valuation process, if in their opinion the valuation is overly low or high.
Originality/value
This paper focusses on valuation from a financial stability perspective. It uses Polish literature and data on NPLs to give an insight on valuation of property and mortgage risk in Poland. Besides the review of the methods it points out the problems related to valuation uncertainty, such as the risk of subjective behaviour of valuers and the low number of transactions in some regions, which are used for valuations.
Details
Keywords
Policy implications of the downward pressure on inflation from the renewed oil price decline.
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB212864
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Rising tensions over monetary policy in Central-Eastern Europe have burst into the open in Poland. The National Bank of Poland (NBP)’s controversial decision to halt a year-long…