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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2020

Sherif Nabil Mahrous, Nagwa Samak and Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. Abdelsalam

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of monetary policy on bank risk in the banking system in some MENA countries. It explores how some economic and credit…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of monetary policy on bank risk in the banking system in some MENA countries. It explores how some economic and credit indicators affect the level of risk in the banking sector. It combines many factors that could affect banks’ risk appetite such as macroeconomic conditions, banks’ credit size and lending growth. The authors use nonperforming loans as a proxy for banking sector risks. At first, the authors have analyzed the linear relationship between monetary policy and credit risk. As mentioned above, nonlinearity is expected in the underlying relationship, and, thus, they have investigated the nonlinear relationship to deeply analyse the relationship using the dynamic panel threshold model, as stimulated by Kremer et al. (2013). Threshold models have gained a great importance in economics and finance for modelling nonlinear behaviour. Threshold models are useful in showing the turning points in the behaviour of financial and economic indicators. This technique has been applied in this study to study the effect of monetary policy on credit risk.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is divided into the following sections: Section 2 which previews the recent literature; Section 3 which includes some stylized facts about the relationship between credit risk and monetary policy; Section 4 which deals with the model and methodology; Section 5 which handles the data sources and discusses the results, and finally Section 6 which is the conclusion. The paper adopts dynamic panel threshold model of Kremer et al. (2013).

Findings

The results show that the relationship between monetary policy and credit risk is positive and significant to a certain threshold, 6.3. If the lending interest rate is higher than 6.3, this increases the credit risk in the banking sector, because increasing the lending interest rate imposes huge burdens on the borrowers, and, therefore, the bad loans and nonperforming loans become more likely. Thus, the MENA countries need to decrease the lending interest rate to be less than 6.3 to reduce the effect of monetary policy on credit risk. Further, these results are qualitatively robust regarding the inclusion of additional control variables, using alternative threshold variables and further endogeneity checks of the credit risk, such as Risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate. The results of taking the risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate as a threshold served the analysis and confirmed the positive relationship between monetary policy and credit risk above a certain threshold. As for the risk premium, the relationship below the threshold was negative and significant. Other related research points might be a good avenue for the future research such as applying this approach to micro data of banks from different MENA countries. Also, more sophisticated approaches like time-varying panel approach to assess the relationship over the time can be applied.

Originality/value

The importance of this paper lies in the fact that it does not only study the effect of time, but it also focuses on the panel data about some economic and credit indicators in the MENA region for the first time. This is because central banks in the MENA region have common characteristics and congruous level of economic growth. Therefore, to study how the monetary policy affects those countries’ credit risks in their lending policies, this requires careful analysis of how the central banks in this region might behave to control default risks.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 5 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 August 2022

Radwa Ahmed Abdelghaffar, Hebatalla Atef Emam and Nagwa Abdallah Samak

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nexus between financial inclusion and human development for countries belonging to different income groups during 2009–2019, and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nexus between financial inclusion and human development for countries belonging to different income groups during 2009–2019, and whether this relation differs across these groups.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper constructs an index of financial inclusion (IFI) for different income group countries employing dynamic panel data models estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM) to analyse the relation between financial inclusion and human development.

Findings

Financial inclusion in low and lower-middle-income countries has higher effect on human development than in high and upper-middle income countries.

Research limitations/implications

The study examines the effect of IFI on the human development index (HDI) at the aggregate level. Future research can tackle the IFI effect on every component of HDI and other aspects of financial inclusion could be incorporated like financial technology.

Originality/value

The originality lies in constructing an index for financial inclusion using the most recent data for a wide range of countries, in addition to examining the impact of financial inclusion on the human development levels of different income groups allowing for more accurate analysis tackling the differences in terms of adopted policies across various income groups; unlike other studies that are carried out on a one country basis or only across one or two country groups that do not allow for comparison across various groups of countries.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-279X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2022

Amira Akl Ahmed, Bosy Ahmed Gamaleldin Fathy and Nagwa Abdl-Allah Samak

This article investigates the determinants of cross-section variation of initial public offerings' (IPOs) first-day returns in a sample of 710 issues across seven emerging markets…

Abstract

Purpose

This article investigates the determinants of cross-section variation of initial public offerings' (IPOs) first-day returns in a sample of 710 issues across seven emerging markets between 2013 and 2017.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and the semi-parametric quantile regression (QR) technique are employed. QR enables to analyse beyond the explanatory variables' relative mean effect at various points in the endogenous variable distribution. Furthermore, parameter estimates under QR are robust to the existence of outliers and long tails in the data distribution.

Findings

Underpricing varies across countries with an average of 78%. According to the OLS results, independent variables explain 26% of the variation of IPOs' first-day returns. Findings show that employing QR is important, given the non-normality of the data and because each quantile is associated with a different effect of explanatory variables.

Originality/value

In addition to firm-specific, market-specific and issue-specific factors, the paper extends IPOs' underpricing literature through studying the impact of country-specific characteristics, largely neglected by literature, on IPO underpricing.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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