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This paper aims to explore the digital economy in the fields of the most promising new technologies: information and communication technologies, biotechnology and nanotechnology. It highlights the convergence of nano-, bio-, info- and cognitive (NBIC) technologies by developing a model for the accurate evaluation of different types of options in the development process of convergent technologies.

The empirical research is based on theoretical analysis and case studies. The authors conducted six in-depth interviews. The study covered different research projects led by centres of excellence, competence centres and institutions that support the transfer of innovations in the economic and business environment.

The research findings prove that there is a convergence of NBIC technologies that can be observed and modelled. The created evolutionary model of NBIC convergence, also based on the theory of real options, allows a proper evaluation of the entire convergence process.

For enterprises and scientific research institutions, the NBIC model could represent the starting point for developing further concepts of investment evaluation. The model also considers the indicators of the innovation system, which, in addition to the marketing area, include regulatory challenges of companies (competition, copyrights, patents, taxation, etc.).

This paper enhances the understanding of new technologies in a digital economy. The purpose of this study is to clarify the principal factors for the effective observation and measurement of the convergence phenomenon. It also offers suggestions for improvement of the research and innovation system in the new economy.

The paper shows that current research systems are not geared to organise and evaluate research involving several scientific disciplines. A consequence is exaggerated promises and expectations based on “speculative interdisciplinarity”. These expectations are one cause of “speculative ethics”. Evaluators of interdisciplinary research proposals should be aware of the pitfalls existing in this kind of research. The purpose of this paper is to highlight “speculative interdisciplinarity” as a cause of exaggerated expectations with the result that ethical analysis and similar activities focus on unlikely impacts.

The paper confronts documented statements of champions of emerging technologies with assessments by specialists from the scientific disciplines involved in the development of the technologies and examines the extent to which differences are due to problems with interdisciplinary work.

The paper identifies the causes of exaggerated expectations related to the impact of emerging technologies based on interdisciplinary research. Lack of experience with interdisciplinary research is shown to be a major cause.

This is basically a case study for a spectacular individual example. There is a need to show that the same problems exist for less spectacular scientific endeavours.

Review process organisers and reviewers should be aware that exaggerated expectations can arise as a result of insufficient attention to the organisation of interdisciplinary research. There is a need for studies to confront expectations with the genuine state of research.

The paper highlights a need to pay attention to the organisation of interdisciplinary research.

Strategic decision-making is a complex process and encompasses an exhaustive knowledge base, collective guidance, contemporary foresight, analytical capabilities, paradigmatic congruence, and risk assessment and optimization within mission space. Employing advanced sciences convergence and analytical methodologies, the aim of this report is to provide a set of plausible solution trajectories to complex scenarios.

Three methodologies are reported here which provide policymakers with plausible solution pathways and alternatives. The methodologies, namely: TechFARM, ADAMS, and NESTTS, involve convergence of scientific disciplines, cutting edge technologies, social dynamics, astute extraction, and principles of foresight to support the process of informed decision-making, as comprehensive tools to develop a plausible solution space and future trends.

The methodologies provided in this report provide scientific basis to trends analysis and foresight. Few selected examples are reported here indicating its practical implications. The methodologies are currently applied to and likely to be used for many applications in trends analysis for government, industry, and even academics. These applications are particularly relevant to policy-making due to their capacity for identification of emerging trends.

Being highly adaptable, these methodologies were initially generated for defense applications, but have since been applied to clean water, cyber-security, the medical sector, and environmental health and safety (EHS) and evaluating eco-toxicity of nanomaterials, to strategically address a variety of global challenges. Additionally, these methodologies support investment recommendations and implementation of policies that promise significant benefit to the public at large.

This study aims to contribute to the comprehension of managerial implications in all the new convergences fields: bioinformation technology (BIT), nanoinformation technology (NIT), nanobiotechnology (NBT) and bioinformation–nanotechnology (BINT). The phenomenon of convergence that significantly impacted economies and societies in the information technology era has continued to be combined with new technologies such as nanotechnology and biotechnology. Many countries have tried to seize the initiative to strengthen the future competitiveness, and it become increasingly important for roles of companies to expand applications of the new convergence.

From a company-based perspective, the study quantifies leading companies’ degree of influence in each convergence field.

However, the result shows that companies’ influences are not mature enough to transfer the initiatives from both the NBT and BINT convergence fields. In addition, this study presents a perceivable framework for companies/institutions by identifying which technological fields the companies/institutions are influential in and what degrees of technological impact are shaped among them. As a result, this allows companies/institutions to recognize their environments squarely.

This study applied the replacement process that can reinforce the investigation of the extent to which a firm has a significant ability to influence others directly and indirectly. From the methodology perspective, such replacement can intensely display the structure and the extent of competition among firms. Therefore, the results provide an explicit information to understand the overall business situation.

Research paper

A century ago, the ancestors of modern computers were largely devoted to analysis of social data, but sociology and computer science diverged, and today they need to be reunited. This conceptual chapter argues for the development of an integrated social-information science, in order to understand and develop socio-technical information systems, to explore and extend recommender and reputation systems, to establish the cultural basis for flourishing virtual worlds, and to deal with revolutionary issues concerning intellectual property rights. It suggests that three forms of human–machine collaboration will become increasingly important: (1) partnerships between humans and information technology, (2) cultures jointly created by the human mind and information technology, and (3) environments where humans and machines cooperate.

The purpose of this paper is to apply Foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation of major trends, most promising products and technologies.

To achieve this goal, best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section “Nanotechnology and new materials”). The study used a wide range of advanced Foresight methods adapted to Russian circumstances. During the Foresight study, the authors integrated “market pull” and research “technology push” approaches including both traditional methods (priority-setting, roadmaps, global challenges analysis) and relatively new approaches (horizon scanning, weak signals, wild cards, etc.).

Using the methods of the Foresight, the authors identified trends with the greatest impact on the sphere of nanotechnology and new materials, promising markets, product groups and potential areas of demand for Russian innovation technologies and developments in this field. The authors assessed the state-of-the-art of the domestic research in the area of nanotechnologies and new materials to identify “white spots”, as well as parity zone and leadership, which can be the basis for integration into international alliances and positioning of Russia as a center of global technological development in this field.

The results of applying Foresight methodology toward revelation of the most prospective S&T areas in the field of nanotechnologies and new materials can be used by a variety of stakeholders including federal and regional authorities, technology platforms and innovation and industrial clusters, leading universities and scientific organizations in formulation of their research and strategic agenda. Russian businesses including both large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises can use results of the study in creating their strategic R&D programs and finding appropriate partners.

Many emerging technologies are being developed in an accelerating pace and are key drivers of future change. In foresight studies, usually their positive impact on the quality of life is considered or their negative environmental effects. This paper seeks to draw attention to an overlooked “dark side” of new technologies: their potential abuse by terrorists or organized crime. Recent cybercrime events are examples of abuse that perhaps could have been minimized if appropriate foresight studies were performed years ago. This was the aim of the recently completed EU-funded project FESTOS.

Several foresight methodologies were employed. Following a horizon scanning for potentially threatening technologies, a Delphi-type expert survey helped to evaluate critical threat characteristics of selected 33 technologies: the likelihood that each technology will actually come to pose a security threat (in different time frames), the easiness of its malicious use, the severity of the threat, and the most threatened societal spheres.

The results enabled ranking the technologies by their “abuse potential” and “threat intensity”. Certain emerging technologies (or their combinations), regarded as “weak signals”, inspired ideas for potential “wild cards”. In a subsequent workshop, which employed a variant of the “futures wheel” method, four wild-card “scenario sketches” were constructed. These were later developed to full narrative scenarios.

The entire process enables the introduction of security foresight into policy planning in a long-range perspective. The foresight results were followed by the evaluation of policy implications and coping with the knowledge control dilemma. The paper illustrates how a mix of foresight methods can help in a continuous analysis of new and threats posed by emerging technologies, thus raising awareness of decision makers and mitigating the risk of unforeseen surprises.

The purpose of this paper is to forward specific policy proposals permitting greater sharing of health data across multi-level government agencies with the purpose of improving rapid identification of bioterrorist attack or disease epidemics while protecting patient privacy.

A systematic literature review searched the following keyword phrases: knowledge sharing in the public sector, raw data sharing, interagency information systems, federal data sharing technology network and network theory on five primary databases.

The volunteer nature of data sharing must evolve through public health policy to permit interagency data access agreements while minimizing privacy infringement. A multi-level information infrastructure network linking agencies tasked to develop medical countermeasures is recommended.

This study optimizes the health data collection process to create a medical countermeasure network, demonstrates the utility of operationalizing data metrics for a US federal agency and advances meaningful use of electronic medical records.

The postindustrial economy did not take the place of previous types of economy. More than that, by definition, it hasn't become “post”-industrial in point of fact: relations with regard to the production of tangible goods define the imperative of industrialism, yet with a modern science and technology stage of development. The present-day production becomes increasingly automated, leading to the absence of demand for psychophysiological properties of man and labor in general. At the same time, highly qualified personnel who are able to control complex information management systems come to the fore. New types of energy and manmade materials appear; socioeconomic human living environment becomes more complicated. These processes are an objective phenomenon. However, the technological revolution is manifested differently in the “central” and “peripheral” countries. In the Russian Federation, formation of the innovational takes place in the conditions of integration of the resource model and opposition of the institutes that fund it. The crisis stimulates the conceptual search and does not deny the scientifically based classics.