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Article
Publication date: 14 May 2020

Dang Luo, Muffarah Ambreen, Assad Latif and Xiaolei Wang

Electricity plays an important role in the economic condition of any country. Nowadays, Pakistan is badly affected by shortage of electricity, which directly affected the economic…

Abstract

Purpose

Electricity plays an important role in the economic condition of any country. Nowadays, Pakistan is badly affected by shortage of electricity, which directly affected the economic growth of state. The purpose of this study is to propose an improved grey model DGPM(1,1,N) to forecast Pakistan's production of electricity, installed capacity and consumption.

Design/methodology/approach

To significantly simulate and predict accuracy, the discrete grey polynomial model DGPM(1,1,N) is improved with new information priority accumulation. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used for parameter optimization. The value of parameter is adjusted into improved grey model. By adjusting the parameter value in the model, the accuracy of prediction is enhanced.

Findings

The installed capacity of electricity needs more attention to improvement through implementation of effective polices, resolving major issues and funding scheme to fulfill the electricity demand of country. And improved DGPM(1,1,N) has better accuracy than original DGPM(1,1,N), DGM(1,1), nongrey models, linear regression and Holt–Winters methods.

Practical implications

This paper provides a practical and efficient improved grey method to predict the electricity production, consumption and installed capacity in Pakistan. This research and suggestion will help Pakistani government to formulate better policies to decrease the consumption of electricity and increase the installed capacity of electricity.

Originality/value

This paper not only improves the grey model with accumulation generation operator but also forecasts Pakistan's electricity production, installed capacity and consumption. It is a new idea to predict the installed capacity of electricity and the findings provide suggestions for the government to make policies.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Decolonising Sambo: Transculturation, Fungibility and Black and People of Colour Futurity
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-347-1

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2015

Eric Osei-Assibey

The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the ancient susu savings operation in Ghana and the behavioural intention or willingness of susu collectors and users to…

2109

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the ancient susu savings operation in Ghana and the behavioural intention or willingness of susu collectors and users to adopt a mobile money (MM) platform as part of their savings practices. More specifically, this study investigates factors that determine one’s intention to adopt the MM space as a savings channel, particularly in place of more traditional ways of saving among many people in West Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

Using field survey data from market traders and susu collectors in several local markets in Ghana, and applying Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) and Technological Adoption Model (TAM) conceptual frameworks, this study has produced some interesting findings. A logistic regression model was used for the empirical analysis.

Findings

Generally, among the susu collectors, the author found perceived risk, education level, relative advantage and the age of the collector to be statistically significant in influencing the behavioural intention of MM adoption. With respect to susu users, the author found such factors as trialability, observability or awareness, compatibility or education attainment. The study also finds the influence of the physical presence of the susu collector to be statistically significant in influencing one’s behavioural intention to accept MM. This was found to be the primary reason motivating susu users to honour their savings commitment.

Practical implications

These findings have important implications for MM uptake and the modernization of the susu operations in Ghana. While MM uptake remains significantly low, these findings suggest that the way to increase uptake is to create more awareness, embark on financial literacy programmes, and reduce mistrust and perception of risk of the MM platform. There is also the need for a regulator as the MM operators and their activities are not regulated by rules such as the reserve requirement of banks, as in the case of commercial banks that guarantees the safety of the savings of clients.

Originality/value

Literature on MM is growing in recent times. However, evidence on adoption as a saving channel to replace the traditional saving system is scanty, particularly within the African context.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 42 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 December 2023

Ran Wang, Yunbao Xu and Qinwen Yang

This paper intends to construct a new adaptive grey seasonal model (AGSM) to promote the application of the grey forecasting model in quarterly GDP.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper intends to construct a new adaptive grey seasonal model (AGSM) to promote the application of the grey forecasting model in quarterly GDP.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, this paper constructs a new accumulation operation that embodies the new information priority by using a hyperparameter. Then, a new AGSM is constructed by using a new grey action quantity, nonlinear Bernoulli operator, discretization operation, moving average trend elimination method and the proposed new accumulation operation. Subsequently, the marine predators algorithm is used to quickly obtain the hyperparameters used to build the AGSM. Finally, comparative analysis experiments and ablation experiments based on China's quarterly GDP confirm the validity of the proposed model.

Findings

AGSM can be degraded to some classical grey prediction models by replacing its own structural parameters. The proposed accumulation operation satisfies the new information priority rule. In the comparative analysis experiments, AGSM shows better prediction performance than other competitive algorithms, and the proposed accumulation operation is also better than the existing accumulation operations. Ablation experiments show that each component in the AGSM is effective in enhancing the predictive performance of the model.

Originality/value

A new AGSM with new information priority accumulation operation is proposed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 12 December 2002

Michael D Mumford, Rosemary A Schultz and Holly K Osburn

In complex, dynamic environments where people must coordinate their activities, planning represents a key influence on performance. Accordingly, one might expect planning to…

Abstract

In complex, dynamic environments where people must coordinate their activities, planning represents a key influence on performance. Accordingly, one might expect planning to affect performance in organizational settings. In this article, we define planning as the mental simulation of future actions. The processing operations that make the generation of viable mental simulations possible are then described along with requisite information requirements. The variables that shape the need for, and effectiveness of, planning activities are then considered with respect to the individual, group, and organizational levels of analysis. Based on these observations, we argue that planning represents a cross-level performance phenomenon of critical importance in understanding organizational behavior. Directions for future research are discussed.

Details

The many faces of multi-level issues
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76230-805-7

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