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Article
Publication date: 6 September 2022

Benedict von Ahlefeldt-Dehn, Marcelo Cajias and Wolfgang Schäfers

Commercial real estate and office rental values, in particular, have long been the focus of research. Several forecasting frameworks for office rental values in multivariate and…

Abstract

Purpose

Commercial real estate and office rental values, in particular, have long been the focus of research. Several forecasting frameworks for office rental values in multivariate and univariate fashions have been proposed. Recent developments in time series forecasting using machine learning and deep learning methods offer an opportunity to update traditional univariate forecasting frameworks.

Design/methodology/approach

With the aim to extend research on univariate rent forecasting a hybrid methodology combining both ARIMA and a neural network model is proposed to exploit the unique strengths of both methods in linear and nonlinear modelling. N-BEATS, a deep learning algorithm that has demonstrated state-of-the-art forecasting performance in major forecasting competitions, are explained. With the ARIMA model, it is jointly applied to the office rental dataset to produce forecasts for four-quarters ahead.

Findings

When the approach is applied to a dataset of 21 major European office cities, the results show that the ensemble model can be an effective approach to improve the prediction accuracy achieved by each of the models used separately.

Practical implications

Real estate forecasting is essential for assessing the value of managing portfolios and for evaluating investment strategies. The approach applied in this paper confirms the heterogeneity of real estate markets. The application of mixed modelling via linear and nonlinear methods decreases the uncertainty of abrupt changes in rents.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, no such application of a hybrid model updating classical statistical forecasting with a deep learning neural network approach in the field of commercial real estate rent forecasting has been undertaken.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Dezhao Tang, Qiqi Cai, Tiandan Nie, Yuanyuan Zhang and Jinghua Wu

Integrating artificial intelligence and quantitative investment has given birth to various agricultural futures price prediction models suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary…

Abstract

Purpose

Integrating artificial intelligence and quantitative investment has given birth to various agricultural futures price prediction models suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary data. However, traditional models have limitations in testing the spatial transmission relationship in time series, and the actual prediction effect is restricted by the inability to obtain the prices of other variable factors in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

To explore the impact of spatiotemporal factors on agricultural prices and achieve the best prediction effect, the authors innovatively propose a price prediction method for China's soybean and palm oil futures prices. First, an improved Granger Causality Test was adopted to explore the spatial transmission relationship in the data; second, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess model (STL) was employed to decompose the price; then, the Apriori algorithm was applied to test the time spillover effect between data, and CRITIC was used to extract essential features; finally, the N-Beats model was selected as the prediction model for futures prices.

Findings

Using the Apriori and STL algorithms, the authors found a spillover effect in agricultural prices, and past trends and seasonal data will impact future prices. Using the improved Granger causality test method to analyze the unidirectional causality relationship between the prices, the authors obtained a spatial effect among the agricultural product prices. By comparison, the N-Beats model based on the spatiotemporal factors shows excellent prediction effects on different prices.

Originality/value

This paper addressed the problem that traditional models can only predict the current prices of different agricultural products on the same date, and traditional spatial models cannot test the characteristics of time series. This result is beneficial to the sustainable development of agriculture and provides necessary numerical and technical support to ensure national agricultural security.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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