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Article
Publication date: 10 May 2018

Dimitrios Kyrkilis, Athanasios Koulakiotis, Vassilios Babalos and Maria Kyriakou

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock Exchange…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock Exchange during the Greek debt crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

To this end, the authors employ for the first time in the literature two well-known models while the variance equation is modeled by means of a multivariate EGARCH specification. As a robustness test an innovative nested-EGARCH model is also employed.

Findings

The assumption that positive feedback trading is an important component of the short-term return movements across the three stock portfolios receives significant support. Moreover, the volatility interdependence, both in magnitude and sign, is almost similar across the three models. Finally, bad news originating from the portfolio of small stock appears to have a higher impact on the volatility of large and medium size stock returns than good news during the Greek debt crisis period.

Originality/value

The methodology is innovative and the authors test for the first time the feedback trading hypothesis across different size stocks. The authors believe that the results might entail significant policy implications for investors and market regulators.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 September 2011

Girijasankar Mallik and Anis Chowdhury

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.

Design/methodology/approach

Multivariate EGARCH models has been used to estimate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.

Findings

Using quarterly data in multivariate EGARCH models, this study finds that both inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty have negative and significant effects on output growth. The paper also finds that, while inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on inflation, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase inflation uncertainty. The study also finds that inflation uncertainty and the inflation level have both declined since the adoption of a formal inflation‐targeting monetary policy in Australia.

Research limitations/implications

Multivariate EGARCH model can be used to estimate the effects of inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for cross‐country analysis.

Originality/value

This is the first study of the effect of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and growth in Australia using a newly constructed oil price dummy in a multivariate EGARCH framework.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 38 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2007

Deqing Diane Li and Kenneth Yung

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real estate securities market and the broader equity market are integrated. The second objective of the study is to determine whether geographic risk factors can be transmitted beyond their region of influence.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH, and GARCH‐M models.

Findings

The results show that there are significant international spillovers of REIT returns volatility within the Pacific region. The results also show that there are significant volatility transmissions between the Pacific and the Atlantic regions.

Practical implications

The results are consistent with the implication that the real estate sector and the general equity market are integrated such that geographic risk can be transmitted across national borders. The result will have major implications for international investment strategies.

Originality/value

To date, there has been no published study on the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. This study therefore examines whether the conditional variance of REIT returns of a country is affected by volatility transmission across markets in the same region using four Pacific markets.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2003

CHRIS BROOKS and GITA PERSAND

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value‐at‐risk (VaR) analysis relies on…

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Abstract

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value‐at‐risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Article
Publication date: 27 April 2022

Sachin Kashyap

This paper aims to analyze and give directions for advancing research in stock market volatility highlighting its features, structural breaks and emerging developments. This study…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze and give directions for advancing research in stock market volatility highlighting its features, structural breaks and emerging developments. This study offers a platform to research the benchmark studies to know the research gap and give directions for extending future research.

Design/methodology/approach

The author has performed the literature review, and, reference checking as per the snowballing approach. Firstly, the author has started with outlining and simplifying the significance of the subject area, the review illustrating the various elements along with the research gaps and emphasizing the finding.

Findings

This work summarizes the studies covering the volatility, its properties and structural breaks on various aspects such as techniques applied, subareas and the markets. From the review’s analysis, no study has clarified the supremacy of any model because of the different market conditions, nature of data and methodological aspects. The outcome of this research work has delivered further magnitude to research the benchmark studies for the upcoming work on stock market volatility. This paper has also proposed the hybrid volatility models combining artificial intelligence with econometric techniques to detect noise, sudden changes and chaotic information easily.

Research limitations/implications

The author has taken the research papers from the scholarly journal published in the English language only and the author may also consider other nonscholarly or other language journals.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this research work highlights an updated and more comprehensive framework examining the properties and demonstrating the contemporary developments in the field of stock market volatility.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2019

Athanasios Fassas, Stephanos Papadamou and Dionisis Philippas

The purpose of this paper is to examine the spillover effects in international financial markets related to investors’ risk aversion as proxied by the variance premium, and how…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the spillover effects in international financial markets related to investors’ risk aversion as proxied by the variance premium, and how these relationships were affected by the quantitative easing (QE) announcements by the Federal Reserve.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis employs a multivariate exponential generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (VAR-EGARCH) specification, which includes the USA, the UK, Germany, France and Switzerland.

Findings

Two main findings are raised from the empirical analysis. First, the VAR-EGARCH model identifies statistically significant spillover effects identifying the USA as the leading source driving investors’ risk aversion. Second, unconventional monetary easing announcement by the Fed has had significant effects on investors’ risk perspectives.

Practical implications

Accounting for the dynamic volatility of variance premium inter-dependencies, the authors show that the correlations among variance premia increase during the QE announcements by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a herding behavior that may potentially lead to stock price bubbles and undermine financial stability.

Originality/value

This is an empirical attempt that investigates the unexplored effects of unconventional monetary policy decisions in relation with investors’ attitudes toward risk.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2010

Yusaku Nishimura and Ming Men

The purpose of this paper is to examine the daily and overnight volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and G5 countries and explain their implications…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the daily and overnight volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and G5 countries and explain their implications on the basis of empirical results.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis utilizes the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model, the cross‐correlation function approach, and realized volatility for daily and intraday stock price data that cover the period from January 5, 2004 to December 31, 2007.

Findings

Principally, the paper concludes the following: strong evidence of short‐run one‐way volatility spillover effects from China to the US, UK, German and French stock markets is observed and the test results indicate that Chinese investors were not rational and China's stock market entered a speculative bubble period after the second half of 2006.

Originality/value

Contrary to widespread belief, the empirical results suggest that a small (China) stock market has significant influence on a large (G5) stock market but not vice versa. This paradox is interpreted as a particular phenomenon existing together with the rapid economic development and severe capital regulation in China.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2019

Letife Özdemir and Serap Vurur

Capital markets thrive on information, and the information revolution has transformed these markets all over the world. Investors can now keep track of the movements of capital…

Abstract

Capital markets thrive on information, and the information revolution has transformed these markets all over the world. Investors can now keep track of the movements of capital markets in real-time and they react to the flow of information from around the world. One of the concerns of stock market investors is whether the markets operate efficiently, independently, and with sound fundamentals. However, real market movements tend to exhibit a link as is evident from recent market movements across the world.

The assessment of interdependence between stock markets is an important aspect of international portfolio management. The aim of this chapter is to examine the shock and volatility spillover between the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) index from the United States (US) Stock Exchange and the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (BIST100) index from the Stock Exchange Istanbul.

S&P500 index, which is the most important index representing US markets, and BIST100 index, which is the index representing the Turkish market, were used as variables in this study. In the analysis, the causality in variance test was applied to determine the volatility spillover between these two markets. Later, multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models were used to measure the volatility spillover in the markets. VAR(1)-GARCH (1,1)-Diagonal BEKK model was applied to the daily data to determine the shock and volatility spillover in the markets.

As a result of the variance causality test, it was found that there is a bi-directional volatility spillover between S&P500 index and BIST100 index. When the return spillover between the markets is examined, a one-way spillover from the S&P500 index to the BIST100 index emerged. Diagonal BEKK model results show that each market is affected by its own news (unexpected shocks) and volatility. Furthermore, the volatility is persistent for both markets. These findings demonstrate that the US market and the Turkish market interact with each other.

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Mantu Kumar Mahalik, Debashis Acharya and M. Suresh Babu

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study has used four futures and spot indices of Multi-Commodity Exchange, Mumbai. The study also employs vector error correction model (VECM) and bivariate exponential Garch model (EGARCH) to analyze the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity market.

Findings

The VECM shows that agriculture future price index (LAGRIFP), energy future price index (LENERGYFP) and aggregate commodity index (LCOMDEXFP) effectively serve the price discovery function in the spot market implying that there is a flow of information from future to spot commodity markets but the reverse causality does not exist. There is no cointegrating relationship between metal future price index (LMETALFP) and metal spot price index (LMETALSP). Besides the bivariate EGARCH model indicates that although the innovations in one market can predict the volatility in another market, the volatility spillovers from future to the spot market are dominant in the case of LENERGY and LCOMDEX index while LAGRISP acts as a source of volatility toward the agri-futures market.

Research limitations/implications

The results are aggregate in nature. Further study at disaggregated level will provide further insights on behavior of specific commodity prices and the price discovery process.

Originality/value

The paper provides useful information about the evolution and structures of futures commodity trading in India, related literature and relevant methodology concerning the hypotheses.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 October 2018

Anum Fatima, Abdul Rashid and Atiq-uz-Zafar Khan

Several studies focus on asymmetric impact of shocks on conventional stocks. However, only few studies explore Islamic stocks, but none has examined the asymmetric impact of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies focus on asymmetric impact of shocks on conventional stocks. However, only few studies explore Islamic stocks, but none has examined the asymmetric impact of shocks on Islamic stocks. This study aims to fill the gap by investigating the asymmetric impact of shocks on Islamic stocks. Specifically, it identifies the effect of good and bad news on Islamic stock market. The study also aims to examine the returns and volatility spillover effects across different Islamic markets.

Design/methodology/approach

To carry out the empirical analysis, the authors have applied the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model on daily Islamic stock indices of 18 countries. The study covers the period from July 2009 to July 2016. The authors have started their empirical analysis by examining the time series properties and testing the presence of ARCH effects. Further, the authors have applied several post-estimation tests to ensure the robustness of the results.

Findings

The results indicate that there is significant leverage effect in Islamic stocks traded in the sampled countries. That is, negative shocks or bad news have stronger effects on Islamic stock returns’ volatility as compared to positive shocks or good news. The authors also found that there are significant mean spillover effects for the examined countries. This finding implies that increased Islamic stock returns in country have significant and positive effects in Islamic stocks’ returns in another other. Similarly, the results regarding the volatility spillover effects suggest that there are significant volatility spillover effects across all examined countries. However, the authors found both positive and negative volatility spillover effects. It should also be noted that in some cases, the authors did not find any significant volatility spillover effect.

Practical implications

The findings of this study have several important policy implications for both investors and policymakers. As the findings suggest that Islamic stock indices are integrated across countries both in terms of returns (mean) and risk (volatility), they are useful for investors to design well-diversified portfolios. The significant volatility spillovers suggest policymakers to design such policy that may help in reducing the adverse effects of increased volatility of Islamic stock of other/foreign countries on the Islamic stocks of the home countries. The significant evidence of the presence of leverage (asymmetric) effects suggest investors to use effective and active hedging instruments to hedge risk, particularly, in bad times.

Originality/value

Unlike other studies on Islamic stocks, this study takes into account the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks. Further, the study examines the mean and variance spillover effects for a large panel of countries having Islamic stocks. Finally, several pre- and post-estimation tests are applied to ensure the robustness of the results.

Details

Journal of Islamic Marketing, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0833

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