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1 – 10 of 58
Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Chao Xia, Bo Zeng and Yingjie Yang

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between…

Abstract

Purpose

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between their physical properties, which in turn affects the stability and reliability of the model performance.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel multivariable grey prediction model is constructed with different background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables, and a one-to-one correspondence between the variables and the background-value coefficients to improve the smoothing effect of the background-value coefficients on the sequences. Furthermore, the fractional order accumulating operator is introduced to the new model weaken the randomness of the raw sequence. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the background-value coefficients and the order of the model to improve model performance.

Findings

The new model structure has good variability and compatibility, which can achieve compatibility with current mainstream grey prediction models. The performance of the new model is compared and analyzed with three typical cases, and the results show that the new model outperforms the other two similar grey prediction models.

Originality/value

This study has positive implications for enriching the method system of multivariable grey prediction model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2023

Gerasimos G. Rigatos, Masoud Abbaszadeh, Pierluigi Siano and Jorge Pomares

Permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors can have wide use in robotics and industrial automation. They enable three-DOF omnidirectional motion of their rotor. They are…

Abstract

Purpose

Permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors can have wide use in robotics and industrial automation. They enable three-DOF omnidirectional motion of their rotor. They are suitable for several applications, such as actuation in robotics, traction in electric vehicles and use in several automation systems. Unlike conventional synchronous motors, permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors consist of a fixed inner shell, which is the stator, and a rotating outer shell, which is the rotor. Their dynamic model is multivariable and strongly nonlinear. The treatment of the associated control problem is important.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the multivariable dynamic model of permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors is analysed, and a nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control method is developed for it. Differential flatness properties are proven for the spherical motors’ state-space model. Next, the motors’ state-space description undergoes approximate linearization with the use of first-order Taylor series expansion and through the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. The linearization process takes place at each sampling instance around a time-varying operating point, which is defined by the present value of the motors’ state vector and by the last sampled value of the control input vector. For the approximately linearized model of the permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors, a stabilizing H-infinity feedback controller is designed. To compute the controller’s gains, an algebraic Riccati equation has to be repetitively solved at each time-step of the control algorithm. The global stability properties of the control scheme are proven through Lyapunov analysis. Finally, the performance of the nonlinear optimal control method is compared against a flatness-based control approach implemented in successive loops.

Findings

Due to the nonlinear and multivariable structure of the state-space model of spherical motors, the solution of the associated nonlinear control problem is a nontrivial task. In this paper, a novel nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control approach is proposed for the dynamic model of permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors. The method is based on approximate linearization of the motor’s state-space model with the use of first-order Taylor series expansion and the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. Furthermore, the paper has introduced a different solution to the nonlinear control problem of the permanent magnet synchronous spherical motor, which is based on flatness-based control implemented in successive loops.

Research limitations/implications

The presented control approaches do not exhibit any limitations, but on the contrary, they have specific advantages. In comparison to global linearization-based control schemes (such as Lie-algebra-based control), they do not make use of complicated changes of state variables (diffeomorphisms) and transformations of the system's state-space description. The computed control inputs are applied directly to the initial nonlinear state-space model of the permanent magnet spherical motor without the intervention of inverse transformations and thus without coming against the risk of singularities.

Practical implications

The motion control problem of spherical motors is nontrivial because of the complicated nonlinear and multivariable dynamics of these electric machines. So far, there have been several attempts to apply nonlinear feedback control to permanent magnet-synchronous spherical motors. However, due to the model’s complexity, few results exist about the associated nonlinear optimal control problem. The proposed nonlinear control methods for permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors make more efficient, precise and reliable the use of such motors in robotics, electric traction and several automation systems.

Social implications

The treated research topic is central for robotic and industrial automation. Permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors are suitable for several applications, such as actuation in robotics, traction in electric vehicles and use in several automation systems. The solution of the control problem for the nonlinear dynamic model of permanent magnet synchronous spherical motors has many industrial applications and therefore contributes to economic growth and development.

Originality/value

The proposed nonlinear optimal control method is novel compared to past attempts to solve the optimal control problem for nonlinear dynamical systems. Unlike past approaches, in the new nonlinear optimal control method, linearization is performed around a temporary operating point, which is defined by the present value of the system's state vector and by the last sampled value of the control inputs vector and not at points that belong to the desirable trajectory (setpoints). Besides, the Riccati equation which is used for computing the feedback gains of the controller is new, and so is the global stability proof for this control method. Compared to nonlinear model predictive control, which is a popular approach for treating the optimal control problem in industry, the new nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control scheme is of proven global stability, and the convergence of its iterative search for the optimum does not depend on initial conditions and trials with multiple sets of controller parameters. It is also noteworthy that the nonlinear optimal control method is applicable to a wider class of dynamical systems than approaches based on the solution of state dependent Riccati equations (SDRE). The SDRE approaches can be applied only to dynamical systems which can be transformed into the linear parameter varying form. Besides, the nonlinear optimal control method performs better than nonlinear optimal control schemes, which use approximation of the solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by Galerkin series expansions. Furthermore, the second control method proposed in this paper, which is flatness-based control in successive loops, is also novel and demonstrates substantial contribution to nonlinear control for robotics and industrial automation.

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2023

Yuhong Wang and Qi Si

This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.

Findings

The results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.

Originality/value

The paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 June 2023

Gerasimos G. Rigatos, Masoud Abbaszadeh, Fabrizio Marignetti and Pierluigi Siano

Voltage source inverter-fed permanent magnet synchronous motors (VSI-PMSMs) are widely used in industrial actuation and mechatronic systems in water pumping stations, as well as…

Abstract

Purpose

Voltage source inverter-fed permanent magnet synchronous motors (VSI-PMSMs) are widely used in industrial actuation and mechatronic systems in water pumping stations, as well as in the traction of transportation systems (such as electric vehicles and electric trains or ships with electric propulsion). The dynamic model of VSI-PMSMs is multivariable and exhibits complicated nonlinear dynamics. The inverters’ currents, which are generated through a pulsewidth modulation process, are used to control the stator currents of the PMSM, which in turn control the rotational speed of this electric machine. So far, several nonlinear control schemes for VSI-PMSMs have been developed, having as primary objectives the precise tracking of setpoints by the system’s state variables and robustness to parametric changes or external perturbations. However, little has been done for the solution of the associated nonlinear optimal control problem. The purpose of this study/paper is to provide a novel nonlinear optimal control method for VSI-fed three-phase PMSMs.

Design/methodology/approach

The present article proposes a nonlinear optimal control approach for VSI-PMSMs. The nonlinear dynamic model of VSI-PMSMs undergoes approximate linearization around a temporary operating point, which is recomputed at each iteration of the control method. This temporary operating point is defined by the present value of the voltage source inverter-fed PMSM state vector and by the last sampled value of the motor’s control input vector. The linearization relies on Taylor series expansion and the calculation of the system’s Jacobian matrices. For the approximately linearized model of the voltage source inverter-fed PMSM, an H-infinity feedback controller is designed. For the computation of the controller’s feedback gains, an algebraic Riccati equation is iteratively solved at each time-step of the control method. The global asymptotic stability properties of the control method are proven through Lyapunov analysis. Finally, to implement state estimation-based control for this system, the H-infinity Kalman filter is proposed as a state observer. The proposed control method achieves fast and accurate tracking of the reference setpoints of the VSI-fed PMSM under moderate variations of the control inputs.

Findings

The proposed H-infinity controller provides the solution to the optimal control problem for the VSI-PMSM system under model uncertainty and external perturbations. Actually, this controller represents a min–max differential game taking place between the control inputs, which try to minimize a cost function that contains a quadratic term of the state vector’s tracking error, the model uncertainty, and exogenous disturbance terms, which try to maximize this cost function. To select the feedback gains of the stabilizing feedback controller, an algebraic Riccati equation is repetitively solved at each time-step of the control algorithm. To analyze the stability properties of the control scheme, the Lyapunov method is used. It is proven that the VSI-PMSM loop has the H-infinity tracking performance property, which signifies robustness against model uncertainty and disturbances. Moreover, under moderate conditions, the global asymptotic stability properties of this control scheme are proven. The proposed control method achieves fast tracking of reference setpoints by the VSI-PMSM state variables, while keeping also moderate the variations of the control inputs. The latter property indicates that energy consumption by the VSI-PMSM control loop can be minimized.

Practical implications

The proposed nonlinear optimal control method for the VSI-PMSM system exhibits several advantages: Comparing to global linearization-based control methods, such as Lie algebra-based control or differential flatness theory-based control, the nonlinear optimal control scheme avoids complicated state variable transformations (diffeomorphisms). Besides, its control inputs are applied directly to the initial nonlinear model of the VSI-PMSM system, and thus inverse transformations and the related singularity problems are also avoided. Compared with backstepping control, the nonlinear optimal control scheme does not require the state-space description of the controlled system to be found in the triangular (backstepping integral) form. Compared with sliding-mode control, there is no need to define in an often intuitive manner the sliding surfaces of the controlled system. Finally, compared with local model-based control, the article’s nonlinear optimal control method avoids linearization around multiple operating points and does not need the solution of multiple Riccati equations or LMIs. As a result of this, the nonlinear optimal control method requires less computational effort.

Social implications

Voltage source inverter-fed permanent magnet synchronous motors (VSI-PMSMs) are widely used in industrial actuation and mechatronic systems in water pumping stations, as well as in the traction of transportation systems (such as electric vehicles and electric trains or ships with electric propulsion), The solution of the associated nonlinear control problem enables reliable and precise functioning of VSI-fd PMSMs. This in turn has a positive impact in all related industrial applications and in tasks of electric traction and propulsion where VSI-fed PMSMs are used. It is particularly important for electric transportation systems and for the wide use of electric vehicles as expected by green policies which aim at deploying electromotion and at achieving the Net Zero objective.

Originality/value

Unlike past approaches, in the new nonlinear optimal control method, linearization is performed around a temporary operating point, which is defined by the present value of the system’s state vector and by the last sampled value of the control input vector and not at points that belong to the desirable trajectory (setpoints). Besides, the Riccati equation, which is used for computing the feedback gains of the controller, is new, as is the global stability proof for this control method. Comparing with nonlinear model predictive control, which is a popular approach for treating the optimal control problem in industry, the new nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control scheme is of proven global stability, and the convergence of its iterative search for the optimum does not depend on initial conditions and trials with multiple sets of controller parameters. It is also noteworthy that the nonlinear optimal control method is applicable to a wider class of dynamical systems than approaches based on the solution of state-dependent Riccati equations (SDRE). The SDRE approaches can be applied only to dynamical systems that can be transformed to the linear parameter varying form. Besides, the nonlinear optimal control method performs better than nonlinear optimal control schemes which use approximation of the solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by Galerkin series expansions.

Details

COMPEL - The international journal for computation and mathematics in electrical and electronic engineering , vol. 42 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0332-1649

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Gerasimos G. Rigatos, Masoud Abbaszadeh, Bilal Sari and Jorge Pomares

A distinctive feature of tilt-rotor UAVs is that they can be fully actuated, whereas in fixed-angle rotor UAVs (e.g. common-type quadrotors, octorotors, etc.), the associated…

Abstract

Purpose

A distinctive feature of tilt-rotor UAVs is that they can be fully actuated, whereas in fixed-angle rotor UAVs (e.g. common-type quadrotors, octorotors, etc.), the associated dynamic model is characterized by underactuation. Because of the existence of more control inputs, in tilt-rotor UAVs, there is more flexibility in the solution of the associated nonlinear control problem. On the other side, the dynamic model of the tilt-rotor UAVs remains nonlinear and multivariable and this imposes difficulty in the drone's controller design. This paper aims to achieve simultaneously precise tracking of trajectories and minimization of energy dissipation by the UAV's rotors. To this end elaborated control methods have to be developed.

Design/methodology/approach

A solution of the nonlinear control problem of tilt-rotor UAVs is attempted using a novel nonlinear optimal control method. This method is characterized by computational simplicity, clear implementation stages and proven global stability properties. At the first stage, approximate linearization is performed on the dynamic model of the tilt-rotor UAV with the use of first-order Taylor series expansion and through the computation of the system's Jacobian matrices. This linearization process is carried out at each sampling instance, around a temporary operating point which is defined by the present value of the tilt-rotor UAV's state vector and by the last sampled value of the control inputs vector. At the second stage, an H-infinity stabilizing controller is designed for the approximately linearized model of the tilt-rotor UAV. To find the feedback gains of the controller, an algebraic Riccati equation is repetitively solved, at each time-step of the control method. Lyapunov stability analysis is used to prove the global stability properties of the control scheme. Moreover, the H-infinity Kalman filter is used as a robust observer so as to enable state estimation-based control. The paper's nonlinear optimal control approach achieves fast and accurate tracking of reference setpoints under moderate variations of the control inputs. Finally, the nonlinear optimal control approach for UAVs with tilting rotors is compared against flatness-based control in successive loops, with the latter method to be also exhibiting satisfactory performance.

Findings

So far, nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) methods have been of questionable performance in treating the nonlinear optimal control problem for tilt-rotor UAVs because NMPC's convergence to optimum depends often on the empirical selection of parameters while also lacking a global stability proof. In the present paper, a novel nonlinear optimal control method is proposed for solving the nonlinear optimal control problem of tilt rotor UAVs. Firstly, by following the assumption of small tilting angles, the state-space model of the UAV is formulated and conditions of differential flatness are given about it. Next, to implement the nonlinear optimal control method, the dynamic model of the tilt-rotor UAV undergoes approximate linearization at each sampling instance around a temporary operating point which is defined by the present value of the system's state vector and by the last sampled value of the control inputs vector. The linearization process is based on first-order Taylor series expansion and on the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. The modelling error, which is due to the truncation of higher-order terms from the Taylor series, is considered to be a perturbation that is asymptotically compensated by the robustness of the control scheme. For the linearized model of the UAV, an H-infinity stabilizing feedback controller is designed. To select the feedback gains of the H-infinity controller, an algebraic Riccati equation has to be repetitively solved at each time-step of the control method. The stability properties of the control scheme are analysed with the Lyapunov method.

Research limitations/implications

There are no research limitations in the nonlinear optimal control method for tilt-rotor UAVs. The proposed nonlinear optimal control method achieves fast and accurate tracking of setpoints by all state variables of the tilt-rotor UAV under moderate variations of the control inputs. Compared to past approaches for treating the nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control problem, the paper's approach is applicable also to dynamical systems which have a non-constant control inputs gain matrix. Furthermore, it uses a new Riccati equation to compute the controller's gains and follows a novel Lyapunov analysis to prove global stability for the control loop.

Practical implications

There are no practical implications in the application of the nonlinear optimal control method for tilt-rotor UAVs. On the contrary, the nonlinear optimal control method is applicable to a wider class of dynamical systems than approaches based on the solution of state-dependent Riccati equations (SDRE). The SDRE approaches can be applied only to dynamical systems which can be transformed to the linear parameter varying (LPV) form. Besides, the nonlinear optimal control method performs better than nonlinear optimal control schemes which use approximation of the solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by Galerkin series expansions. The stability properties of the Galerkin series expansion-based optimal control approaches are still unproven.

Social implications

The proposed nonlinear optimal control method is suitable for using in various types of robots, including robotic manipulators and autonomous vehicles. By treating nonlinear control problems for complicated robotic systems, the proposed nonlinear optimal control method can have a positive impact towards economic development. So far the method has been used successfully in (1) industrial robotics: robotic manipulators and networked robotic systems. One can note applications to fully actuated robotic manipulators, redundant manipulators, underactuated manipulators, cranes and load handling systems, time-delayed robotic systems, closed kinematic chain manipulators, flexible-link manipulators and micromanipulators and (2) transportation systems: autonomous vehicles and mobile robots. Besides, one can note applications to two-wheel and unicycle-type vehicles, four-wheel drive vehicles, four-wheel steering vehicles, articulated vehicles, truck and trailer systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, autonomous underwater vessels and underactuated vessels.

Originality/value

The proposed nonlinear optimal control method is a novel and genuine result and is used for the first time in the dynamic model of tilt-rotor UAVs. The nonlinear optimal control approach exhibits advantages against other control schemes one could have considered for the tilt-rotor UAV dynamics. For instance, (1) compared to the global linearization-based control schemes (such as Lie algebra-based control or flatness-based control), it does not require complicated changes of state variables (diffeomorphisms) and transformation of the system's state-space description. Consequently, it also avoids inverse transformations which may come against singularity problems, (2) compared to NMPC, the proposed nonlinear optimal control method is of proven global stability and the convergence of its iterative search for an optimum does not depend on initialization and controller's parametrization, (3) compared to sliding-mode control and backstepping control the application of the nonlinear optimal control method is not constrained into dynamical systems of a specific state-space form. It is known that unless the controlled system is found in the input–output linearized form, the definition of the associated sliding surfaces is an empirical procedure. Besides, unless the controlled system is found in the backstepping integral (triangular) form, the application of backstepping control is not possible, (4) compared to PID control, the nonlinear optimal control method is of proven global stability and its performance is not dependent on heuristics-based selection of parameters of the controller and (5) compared to multiple-model-based optimal control, the nonlinear optimal control method requires the computation of only one linearization point and the solution of only one Riccati equation.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Unmanned Systems, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2049-6427

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 May 2022

Odey Alshboul, Ali Shehadeh, Omer Tatari, Ghassan Almasabha and Eman Saleh

Efficient management of earthmoving equipment is critical for decision-makers in construction engineering management. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to prudently identify…

Abstract

Purpose

Efficient management of earthmoving equipment is critical for decision-makers in construction engineering management. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to prudently identify, select, manage and optimize the associated decision variables (e.g. capacity, number and speed) for trucks and loaders equipment to minimize cost and time objectives.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper addresses an innovative multiobjective and multivariable mathematical optimization model to generate a Pareto-optimality set of solutions that offers insights of optimal tradeoffs between minimizing earthmoving activity’s cost and time. The proposed model has three major stages: first, define all related decision variables for trucks and loaders and detect all related constraints that affect the optimization model; second, derive the mathematical optimization model and apply the multiobjective genetic algorithms and classify all inputs and outputs related to the mathematical model; and third, model validation.

Findings

The efficiency of the proposed optimization model has been validated using a case study of earthmoving activities based on data collected from the real-world construction site. The outputs of the conducted optimization process promise the model’s originality and efficiency in generating optimal solutions for optimal time and cost objectives.

Originality/value

This model provides the decision-maker with an efficient tool to select the optimal design variables to minimize the activity's time and cost.

Details

Journal of Facilities Management , vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1472-5967

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane and Jean Gaston Tamba

For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic…

36

Abstract

Purpose

For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)).

Design/methodology/approach

Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique.

Findings

Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error.

Originality/value

These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Gang Yu, Zhiqiang Li, Ruochen Zeng, Yucong Jin, Min Hu and Vijayan Sugumaran

Accurate prediction of the structural condition of urban critical infrastructure is crucial for predictive maintenance. However, the existing prediction methods lack precision due…

28

Abstract

Purpose

Accurate prediction of the structural condition of urban critical infrastructure is crucial for predictive maintenance. However, the existing prediction methods lack precision due to limitations in utilizing heterogeneous sensing data and domain knowledge as well as insufficient generalizability resulting from limited data samples. This paper integrates implicit and qualitative expert knowledge into quantifiable values in tunnel condition assessment and proposes a tunnel structure prediction algorithm that augments a state-of-the-art attention-based long short-term memory (LSTM) model with expert rating knowledge to achieve robust prediction results to reasonably allocate maintenance resources.

Design/methodology/approach

Through formalizing domain experts' knowledge into quantitative tunnel condition index (TCI) with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a fusion approach using sequence smoothing and sliding time window techniques is applied to the TCI and time-series sensing data. By incorporating both sensing data and expert ratings, an attention-based LSTM model is developed to improve prediction accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of structural influencing factors.

Findings

The empirical experiment in Dalian Road Tunnel in Shanghai, China showcases the effectiveness of the proposed method, which can comprehensively evaluate the tunnel structure condition and significantly improve prediction performance.

Originality/value

This study proposes a novel structure condition prediction algorithm that augments a state-of-the-art attention-based LSTM model with expert rating knowledge for robust prediction of structure condition of complex projects.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Joana Salifu Yendork, Kwaku Oppong Asante and Emmanuel Nii-Boye Quarshie

Football is a popular sport among young people across Africa, incited by the heavy presence of European football that has become central to youth cultures, everyday social…

Abstract

Football is a popular sport among young people across Africa, incited by the heavy presence of European football that has become central to youth cultures, everyday social routines, forms of consumption and opportunities for establishing social status. A growing body of evidence suggests increasing trends in harmful gambling behaviours in African youth, while the proliferation of football betting particularly remains a critical potential risk for negative mental health outcomes among young people in Sub-Saharan Africa. This chapter draws on original empirical data from a web-based cross-sectional survey to examine the prevalence estimates and associations of socio-demographic and behavioural factors with football betting among young adults attending university in Ghana. It draws on a multivariable logistic regression model to assess the associations with football betting. Our findings point not only to the growing salience of football betting among male demographics, but also the role of peer culture, alcohol and media as predominant sources of participants' initiation of football betting. Moreover, participants indicated the motive ‘to make money’ as their single major motivation, which raises the prospect that football betting is used as a means to mitigate the adverse effects of unemployment. Overall, the study points to a need for harm prevention strategies that align more closely with public health approaches focused on students, their families, their communities and their universities/schools.

Details

Gambling and Sports in a Global Age
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-304-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2023

Yonghong Zhang, Shouwei Li, Jingwei Li and Xiaoyu Tang

This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of memory dependence period, ultimately enhancing the model's predictive accuracy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper enhances the traditional grey Bernoulli model by introducing memory-dependent derivatives, resulting in a novel memory-dependent derivative grey model. Additionally, fractional-order accumulation is employed for preprocessing the original data. The length of the memory dependence period for memory-dependent derivatives is determined through grey correlation analysis. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the cumulative order, power index and memory kernel function index of the model, enabling adaptability to diverse scenarios.

Findings

The selection of appropriate memory kernel functions and memory dependency lengths will improve model prediction performance. The model can adaptively select the memory kernel function and memory dependence length, and the performance of the model is better than other comparison models.

Research limitations/implications

The model presented in this article has some limitations. The grey model is itself suitable for small sample data, and memory-dependent derivatives mainly consider the memory effect on a fixed length. Therefore, this model is mainly applicable to data prediction with short-term memory effect and has certain limitations on time series of long-term memory.

Practical implications

In practical systems, memory effects typically exhibit a decaying pattern, which is effectively characterized by the memory kernel function. The model in this study skillfully determines the appropriate kernel functions and memory dependency lengths to capture these memory effects, enhancing its alignment with real-world scenarios.

Originality/value

Based on the memory-dependent derivative method, a memory-dependent derivative grey Bernoulli model that more accurately reflects the actual memory effect is constructed and applied to power generation forecasting in China, South Korea and India.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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