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With respect to multi-stage group risk decision-making problems in which all the attribute values take the form of grey number, and the weights of stages and decision makers are unknown, the purpose of this paper is to propose a new decision-making method based on grey target and prospect theory.

First, the sequencing and distance between two grey numbers are introduced. Then, a linear operator with the features of the “rewarding good and punishing bad” is presented based on the grey target given by decision maker, and the prospect value function of each attribute based on the zero reference point is defined. Next, weight models of stages and decision makers are suggested, which are based on restriction of stage fluctuation, the maximum differences of alternatives and the maximum entropy theory. Furthermore, the information of alternatives is aggregated by WA operator, the alternatives are selected by their prospect values.

The comprehensive cumulative prospect values are finally aggregated by WA operator, alternatives are selected or not are judged by the sign of the comprehensive prospect theory, if the prospect value of alternative is negative, the corresponding alternative misses the group decision makers’ grey target, on the contrary, if the prospect value of alternative is positive, the corresponding alternative is dropped into the group decision makers’ grey target, the alternative with positive prospect value whose value is the maximum is selected.

Compared with the traditional decision-making methods using expected utility theory which suppose the decision makers are all completely rational, the proposed method is based on irrational which is more in line with the decision maker’s psychology. And this method considers the decision maker’s psychological expectation values about every attribute, different satisfactory grey target about attributes will directly affect decision-making result.

With the rapid growth of the domestic lending industry, assessing whether the borrower of each loan is at risk of default is a pressing issue for financial institutions. Although there are some models that can handle such problems well, there are still some shortcomings in some aspects. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of credit assessment models.

In this paper, three different stages are used to improve the classification performance of LSTM, so that financial institutions can more accurately identify borrowers at risk of default. The first approach is to use the K-Means-SMOTE algorithm to eliminate the imbalance within the class. In the second step, ResNet is used for feature extraction, and then two-layer LSTM is used for learning to strengthen the ability of neural networks to mine and utilize deep information. Finally, the model performance is improved by using the IDWPSO algorithm for optimization when debugging the neural network.

On two unbalanced datasets (category ratios of 700:1 and 3:1 respectively), the multi-stage improved model was compared with ten other models using accuracy, precision, specificity, recall, G-measure, F-measure and the nonparametric Wilcoxon test. It was demonstrated that the multi-stage improved model showed a more significant advantage in evaluating the imbalanced credit dataset.

In this paper, the parameters of the ResNet-LSTM hybrid neural network, which can fully mine and utilize the deep information, are tuned by an innovative intelligent optimization algorithm to strengthen the classification performance of the model.

The optimal payment in the whole operation and maintenance period of water environment treatment PPP projects has become the main approach to realize sustainable development of projects. This study is aimed at constructing an effective payment model for the whole life period of projects to achieve win-win among all stakeholders, so as to provide a theoretical reference and managerial implications for the public sector in the whole operation and maintenance period.

In the whole operation and maintenance period of water environment treatment PPP projects, this article investigates how the public sector optimizes the payment in the whole operation and maintenance period of projects. Firstly, the projects' whole operation and maintenance period is divided into several stages according to the performance appraisal period. And then, the multi-stage dynamic programming model is constructed to design the payment construct model for the public sector in each performance appraisal stage. The payment from the public sector is the decision variable, and the deduction from the private sector is a random variable.

The optimal payment model showed that the relatively less objective weight of public sector leaded to its relatively more total payment and vice versa. Therefore, the sustainable development of the projects can only be ensured when the objective weights both of them should be balanced. Additionally, the deduction from the performance appraisal of private sector plays an important role in the model construction. The larger deduction the private sector undertakes, the smaller profits private sector has. Since the deduction at each stage is a random variable, the deduction varies with the different probability distributions obeyed by the practical deduction in each stage.

The findings from this study have provided theoretical and application references, and some managerial implications are also given. First, the improvement of the pricing system of public sector should be accelerated. Second, the reasonable profit of the private sector must be guaranteed. While pursuing the maximization of social benefits, the public sector should make full use of the price sharing mechanism in the market and supervise the real income situation of the private sector. Third is increasing the public to participate in pricing. Additionally, it is a limitation that the deduction is assumed to conform to a uniform distribution in this study. Other probability distributions on deduction can be essentially further sought, so as to be more line with the actual situation of the projects.

The optimal payment in whole operation and maintenance period of the projects has become an important issue, which is a key to project success. This study constructs a multi-stage dynamic programming model to optimize payment in the whole period of projects. Additionally, this study adds its value through deeply developing the new theories of optimal payment to more suitable for the practical problems, so that to optimize the design of payment mechanism. Meanwhile, a valuable reference for public and private sectors is provided to ensure the sustainable development of the projects.

For the multi-stage and multi-attribute risk group decision-making problem, the attribute weight, decision-maker weight and time weight are unknown. The attribute value is grey information. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a decision-making method.

Analysis techniques and the theory about distance degree are used to determine the decision-maker weight within single stage. Grey relational analysis method is applied to determine the attribute weight. Moreover, the uncertainty of time weight and the proximity between the attribute value and positive/negative value are taken into account. A multi-objective optimization model is established based on maximum entropy to obtain time weights, so the comprehensive value is determined.

An example shows the effectiveness and practicability.

For a decision-making process, the results are different in different periods. This method is computationally very simple, easily comprehensible.

The purpose of this paper is twofold, first providing researchers with an overview about the uncertainties occurred in procurement including applicable approaches for analyzing different uncertain scenarios, and second proposing directions to inspire future research by identifying research gaps.

Papers related to supply chain risk management and procurement risk management (PRM) from 1995–2017 in several major databases are extracted by keywords and then further filtered based on the relevance to the topic, number of citations and publication year. A total of over 156 papers are selected. Definitions and current approaches related to procurement risks management are reviewed.

Five main risks in procurement process are identified. Apart from summarizing current strategies, suggestions are provided to facilitate strategy selection to handle procurement risks. Seven major future challenges and implications related PRM and different uncertainties are also indicated in this paper.

Procurement decisions making under uncertainty has attracted considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. Despite the increasing awareness for risk management for supply chain, no detail and holistic review paper studied on procurement uncertainty. Managing procurement risk not only need to mitigate the risk of price and lead time, but also need to have sophisticated analysis techniques in supply and demand uncertainty.

The contribution of this review paper is to discuss the implications of the research findings and provides insight about future research. A novel research framework is introduced as reference guide for researchers to apply innovative approach of operations research to resolve the procurements uncertainty problems.

The purpose of this paper is to systematically review the extant literature on the relationship between product architectures and supply chain design to identify gaps in the literature and identify future research opportunities.

This paper examines the peer-reviewed literature on product architectures and supply chain written in English. The search strategy is based on selected databases and keywords. In total, 56 articles from 1995 to 2013 were identified.

Three key dimensions are identified for the categorization of the literature: the type of product architecture, the type of supply chain and the research methodology. Furthermore, we identify themes related to outsourcing, supplier selection, supplier relationships, distance from focal firm and alignment.

The present search strategy may have missed some references that are related to the area. However, as a counter-measure, we used back-tracking and forward-tracking to identify additional relevant papers. A research agenda is proposed for further research on the interaction of product architectures and supply chain design.

This paper is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first broad review that investigates the interrelationship between product architectures and supply chain design.

To reduce financial and human losses, managing risks associated with earthquakes is essential in practice. However, in using common risk management methods, experts are often faced with ambiguities that can create profound challenges for risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a logical and straightforward risk assessment model to provide scientific and accurate answers to complex problems. This study aims to recommend an innovative combined method based on the probability-impact (P-I) approach and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory to identify and prioritize the essential earthquake risks associated with worn-out urban fabrics in the context of Iran.

The opinions of 15 experts in the fields of civil engineering and urban construction were gathered during brainstorming sessions. These brainstorming sessions were conducted to determine the probability of risks and the effect of identified risks. After calculating the severity of risks using the P-I approach and converting them to intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the risks were measured and prioritized based on their individual scores.

The study results indicated that risk of damage due to buildings’ age and flooding risk had the highest and lowest priorities in causes of financial damage, respectively. Furthermore, the risk of damage due to building quality (demolition) and building age was the most important. The risk of flooding and damage to communication networks has the lowest importance among causes of fatalities in worn-out urban fabrics.

The study findings and recommendations can be served as a policy and consultative instrument for the relevant stakeholders in the area of urban management.

The purpose of this paper is both to provide an overview of existing knowledge pertaining to the management of price risks in manufacturing companies from an operations management (OM) perspective and to establish an agenda for future research. Risks related to the purchase prices of industrial consumption factors (raw materials, semi-finished/finished goods, auxiliary materials and operating materials) exert an increasing influence on manufacturing companies’ business continuity and economic sustainability.

A systematic literature review was conducted following the literature search approach of vom Brocke et al. (2009). In total, 138 relevant articles were identified, analysed and synthesised.

The literature review reveals that the existing OM literature devotes little attention to price risks and their management in manufacturing companies. In particular, further empirical investigation is required to support decision-making in various risk contexts.

This paper emphasises that in addition to existing national resource funds and inter-company alliances, alternative concepts are required to secure both stable prices and access to natural resources. Otherwise, in the future, small- and medium-sized companies, along with companies based in countries lacking available resource funds, will not have an opportunity to engage in fair competition.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first literature review to focus on price as a specific supply risk.

With increasing exposure to disruptions, it is vital for supply chains to manage risks proactively. Prediction of potential failure points and overall impact of these risks is challenging. In this paper, systems thinking concepts are applied for modelling supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to develop a holistic, systematic and quantitative risk assessment process for measuring the overall risk behaviour.

A framework for supply chain risk management (SCRM) is developed and tested using an industrial case study. A systematically developed research design is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of risks. Additionally, a system‐based supply chain risk model is conceptualized for risk modelling. Sensitivity modelling results are combined for validating the supply chain risk model.

The systems approach for modelling supply chain risks predicts the failure points along with their overall risk impact in the supply chain network. System‐based risk modelling provides a holistic picture of risk behavioural performance, which is difficult to realise through other research methodologies commonly preferred in SCRM research.

The developed framework for SCRM is tested in an industry setting for its viability. The framework for SCRM along with the supply chain risk model is expected to benefit practitioners in understanding the intricacies of supply chain risks. The system model for risk assessment is a working tool which could provide a perspective of future disruptive events.

A holistic, systematic and quantitative risk modelling mechanism for capturing overall behaviour of risks is a valuable contribution of this research. The paper presents a new perspective towards using systems thinking for modelling supply chain risks.

Given the increasing importance of engineering insurance, it is still unclear which specific factors can enhance the role of engineering insurance as a risk transfer tool. This study aims to propose a hybrid approach to identify and analyze the key determinants influencing the consumption of engineering insurance in mainland China.

The empirical analysis utilizes provincial data from mainland China from 2008 to 2019. The research framework is a novel amalgamation of the generalized method of moments (GMM) model, the quantile regression (QR) technique and the random forest (RF) algorithm. This innovative hybrid approach provides a comprehensive exploration of the driving factors while also allowing for an examination across different quantiles of insurance consumption.

The study identifies several driving factors that significantly impact engineering insurance consumption. Income, financial development, inflation, price, risk aversion, market structure and the social security system have a positive and significant influence on engineering insurance consumption. However, urbanization exhibits a negative and significant effect on the consumption of engineering insurance. QR techniques reveal variations in the effects of these driving factors across different levels of engineering insurance consumption.

This study extends the research on insurance consumption to the domain of the engineering business, making theoretical and practical contributions. The findings enrich the knowledge of insurance consumption by identifying the driving factors specific to engineering insurance for the first time. The research framework provides a novel and useful tool for examining the determinants of insurance consumption. Furthermore, the study offers insights into the engineering insurance market and its implications for policymakers and market participants.