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1 – 3 of 3Mudaser Ahad Bhat, Farhana Wani, Aadil Amin, G.M. Bhat and Farhat Bano Beg
This paper aims to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on trade flows in Asia Pacific countries and explores the causality between COVID-19-related shocks and trade.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on trade flows in Asia Pacific countries and explores the causality between COVID-19-related shocks and trade.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used two novel techniques, namely, two-stage instrumental-variables (2SIV) approach and Juodis, Karavias and Sarafids (JKS) causality test, to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic.
Findings
Using the monthly trade data of 17 Asia Pacific countries between January 2020 and December 2021, the results were threefold. Firstly, the empirical analysis showed that during the COVID-19 crisis, the flow of exports tended to persist idiosyncratically in comparison to the flow of imports. In particular, a specific finding was that the persistence level in exports was about 20%–25% higher than that in imports. Secondly, the authors found that the past values of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths contain information that helps to predict exports/imports over and above the information contained in the past values of exports/imports alone. Finally, the study established that the government response and stringency indexes have a Granger-causal relationship with exports and imports.
Research limitations/implications
For the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. Firstly, if a COVID-19 crisis-like situation emerges in the future, it will be critical for countries to maintain their competitiveness throughout the crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic, while also rebuilding trade relationships wherever possible. Secondly, because information about government responses and measures can also be used to predict future trade flows, prudent management of government responses and stringent measures will be necessary in a crisis like COVID-19 to achieve the optimum level of exports and imports. At the same time, the trading partners should give up the idea of trade protection and focus on finding a way to balance the conflicting needs of imports and exports.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors, for the first time, used a 2SIV approach and JKS causality test to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic. In addition, the authors present the first comprehensive analysis of the evolving relationships between export and import flows and governmental policy responses under COVID-19. As a result, it contributes uniquely to both public and international economics.
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Mudaser Ahad Bhat and Mirza Nazrana Beg
This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: higher trade openness is associated with a lower unemployment rate. This paper also examines whether or not the effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: higher trade openness is associated with a lower unemployment rate. This paper also examines whether or not the effects of trade liberalisation depend on countries' income levels. Further, the dynamic causation between trade openness and unemployment is also examined.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to obtain insight into the openness–unemployment nexus, following empirical methods were utilised - static panel models, dynamic panel models and a novel panel Granger causality approach proposed by Juodis et al. (2021).
Findings
Results suggest that openness negatively affects unemployment; the extent to which trade liberalisation affects unemployment depends on the income level of each country. The Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (JKS) test confirmed that the past values of trade openness, inflation, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product per capita contain information that helps to predict unemployment in a more robust manner. To simply put, opening upto trade may eventually become a requirement for creating more job opportunities, but this alone may not be enough. The extent to which nations benefit from trade liberalisation is largely dependent on the overall economic conditions and their capability to move up the income scale.
Originality/value
A major difference between this study and those performed previously is that this study does not only examine the impact of trade openness on unemployment, but also investigates whether the unemployment effect of liberalisation is affected by countries' income levels – an issue that has received little attention in the past. Additionally, the unique panel non-causality approach put forth by Juodis et al. (2021) is used in the first instance to look into the causal link between trade openness and unemployment. This method has advantages in that the method enables capturing Granger-causality in homogeneous or heterogeneous panels amongst multiple variables.
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Mudaser Ahad Bhat, Aamir Jamal and Farhana Wani
The purpose of this paper was to examine the nexus between conditional exchange rate volatility and economic growth in BRICS countries. Further, the dynamic causation between…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper was to examine the nexus between conditional exchange rate volatility and economic growth in BRICS countries. Further, the dynamic causation between economic growth and exchange rate volatility is also examined.
Design/methodology/approach
We employed three techniques, namely, dynamic panel models, static panel models and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test to examine the economic growth–conditional exchange rate volatility nexus in BRICS countries.
Findings
The overall results showed that conditional exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Interestingly, the results showed that whenever the exchange rate volatility exceeds the 0–1.54 range, the economic growth of BRICS is reduced, on average, by 5%. Further, the results of the causality test reconciled with that of ARDL wherein unidirectional causality from exchange rate volatility, exports, labour force and gross capital formation to economic growth was found.
Research limitations/implications
The urgent recommendation is to develop and align fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policies, either through creating a common currency region or through coordinated measures to offset volatility and trade risks in the long run. Further, to offset the impact of excessive exchange rate changes, BRICS economies can set up currency hedging systems, implement temporary capital controls during periods of extreme volatility or create currency swap agreements with other nations or regions. Last, but not least, investment and labour policies that are coherent and well-coordinated can support market stabilisation, promote investment and increase worker productivity and job prospects.
Originality/value
Researchers hold contrasting views regarding the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth. Some researchers claim that exchange rate volatility reduces growth, and several shreds of empirical evidence claim that lower exchange rate volatility is linked with an increase in economic growth, at least in the short run. However, the challenge lies in establishing the optimal range beyond which exchange rate volatility becomes detrimental to economic growth. The present study contributes to this aspect by seeking to identify the optimal spectrum beyond which excessive shifts in exchange rate volatility negatively affect economic growth, or endeavors to define the acceptable spectrum within which these fluctuations actually boost growth. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to analyse the given research area. The present study used a dummy variable technique to capture the impact of permissible exchange rate band on the economic growth.
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