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Article
Publication date: 28 March 2024

Chinthaka Niroshan Atapattu, Niluka Domingo and Monty Sutrisna

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of…

Abstract

Purpose

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of this research was to develop a new multiple regression analysis (MRA)-based model to forecast the final cost of road projects at the pre-design stage using data from 43 projects in New Zealand (NZ).

Design/methodology/approach

The research used the case study of 43 completed road projects in NZ. Document analysis was conducted to collect data, and statistical tests were used for model development and analysis.

Findings

Eight models were developed, and all models achieved the required F statistics and met the regression assumptions. The models’ mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was between 21.25% and 22.77%. The model with the lowest MAPE comprised the road length and width, number of bridges, pavement area, cut and fill area, preliminary cost and cost indices change.

Research limitations/implications

The model is based on road projects in NZ. However, it was designed to be able to adapt to other contexts. The findings suggest that the model can be used to improve traditional conceptual estimating methods. Past project data is often stored by the project team but rarely used for analysing and forecasting purposes. This research emphasises that past data can be effectively used to predict the project cost at the pre-design stage with limited information.

Originality/value

No research was conducted to adopt cost modelling techniques into the conceptual estimation practice in the NZ construction industry.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2023

Chinthaka Niroshan Atapattu, Niluka Domingo and Monty Sutrisna

Cost overrun in infrastructure projects is a constant concern, with a need for a proper solution. The current estimation practice needs improvement to reduce cost overruns. This…

Abstract

Purpose

Cost overrun in infrastructure projects is a constant concern, with a need for a proper solution. The current estimation practice needs improvement to reduce cost overruns. This study aimed to find possible statistical modelling techniques that could be used to develop cost models to produce more reliable cost estimates.

Design/methodology/approach

A bibliographic literature review was conducted using a two-stage selection method to compile the relevant publications from Scopus. Then, Visualisation of Similarities (VOS)-Viewer was used to develop the visualisation maps for co-occurrence keyword analysis and yearly trends in research topics.

Findings

The study found seven primary techniques used as cost models in construction projects: regression analysis (RA), artificial neural network (ANN), case-based reasoning (CBR), fuzzy logic, Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS), support vector machine (SVM) and reference class forecasting (RCF). RA, ANN and CBR were the most researched techniques. Furthermore, it was observed that the model's performance could be improved by combining two or more techniques into one model.

Research limitations/implications

The research was limited to the findings from the bibliometric literature review.

Practical implications

The findings provided an assessment of statistical techniques that the industry can adopt to improve the traditional estimation practice of infrastructure projects.

Originality/value

This study mapped the research carried out on cost-modelling techniques and analysed the trends. It also reviewed the performance of the models developed for infrastructure projects. The findings could be used to further research to develop more reliable cost models using statistical modelling techniques with better performance.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2022

Nazanin Kordestani Ghalenoei, Mostafa Babaeian Jelodar, Daniel Paes and Monty Sutrisna

The development of prefabrication into full-scale offsite manufacturing processes in the construction industry is paradigm-shifting. Moreover, Building Information Modelling (BIM…

Abstract

Purpose

The development of prefabrication into full-scale offsite manufacturing processes in the construction industry is paradigm-shifting. Moreover, Building Information Modelling (BIM) is becoming the primary mode of communication and integration in construction projects to facilitate the flow of information. Although research has been performed on BIM and Offsite Construction (OSC), integrating these two concepts remains ambiguous and complex and lacks documentation and structure, especially in New Zealand. Therefore, this paper develops a robust framework for OSC and BIM integration. The study focusses on identifying integration challenges and proposes strategies for overcoming these challenges.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applied scientometric analysis, a systematic literature review (SLR) and semi-structured expert interviews to investigate OSC and BIM integration challenges. Multiple themes were investigated and triangulation conducted in this research supports the creation of applicable knowledge in this field.

Findings

Multiple gaps, research trends and the pioneer countries in the paper's scope have been identified through scientometric analysis. Then, a classified cluster of challenges for OSC and BIM implementation and integration strategies of OSC and BIM were demonstrated from the findings. The interviews provided comprehensive and complementary data sets and analyses. The findings from the Systematic Literature Review and interview structured the integration framework.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper to existing knowledge is a developed framework that serves as a guideline for the OSC stakeholders. This framework can assess OSC's alignment with BIM and consolidate strategies for incorporating OSC into a BIM-based project delivery process. The framework consists of 23 strategies categorised into 8 clusters: a policy document, training and professional development, documentation, technology management, governmental development, contract development, accurate definition and detailing and communication. The proposed strategies will streamline integration by reducing potential challenges, thus enhancing project productivity.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2023

An Thi Hoai Le and Monty Sutrisna

This paper reports the developments of a project cost control system (PCCS) for construction projects to (1) measure its current level of cost control maturity, (2) examine the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper reports the developments of a project cost control system (PCCS) for construction projects to (1) measure its current level of cost control maturity, (2) examine the relationships between elements within PCCS processes and (3) identify improvement areas.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a mixed approach of descriptive analysis and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to measure the current maturity level of PCCS and evaluate the relationships between elements within PCSS to identify improvement areas. Further importance-performance matrix analysis (IPMA) of priority constructs was conducted to improve a target construct and identify the most important areas of specific actions at indicator levels. The results of IPMA revealed the contrast that has the greatest importance on the performance of others so that the recommendations can be made accordingly. Data collected in New Zealand were used to develop the research model.

Findings

This study develops structural and measurement models with the constructs including pre-control, in-control and post-control processes, enablers and their proposed interrelationships. Then, data from survey of 184 experienced project cost control team members reveal that post-control has the lowest maturity or weakest areas in the PCCS. Data analysis facilitated by PLS-SEM confirmed that all the constructs in the structural model have positive and significant relationships with each other and suggested that systematic cost analysis reports, communication, skills and experience, defining roles and responsibilities, and top management's support should be the highest priority for improving the PCCS in a more effective manner.

Originality/value

This study presents one of the earliest attempts to develop and test an integrated model that links sub-processes in PCCS and their enablers. Secondly, this research adds to the construction project management literature by empirically verifying the roles of enablers in enhancing maturity level of PCCS.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

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