Search results

1 – 10 of 23
Case study
Publication date: 16 August 2021

Raj V. Amonkar, Tuhin Sengupta and Debasis Patnaik

The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the…

Abstract

Learning outcomes

The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the interface of the supply chain and to analyze the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and statistical techniques for identifying the key seaport logistics factors.

Case overview/synopsis

It was 9:00 p.m. on November 10, 2020, and Nishadh Amonkar, the CEO of OCTO supply chain management (SCM) was glued to the television watching the final cricket match of the Indian Premier League, 2020. Amonkar’s mobile phone rang and it was a call from Vinod Nair, a member Logistics Panel of Ranji Industries Federation. Nair informed Amonkar that it was related to the rejection of several export consignments of agricultural products from Ranji (in the western part of India). The rejection was due to the deterioration in the quality of the exported agricultural products during transit from Ranji to various locations in Europe.

Complexity academic level

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations research (Focus/Session: Applications on Monte Carlo Simulation). SCM (Focus/Session: Global SCM, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network). Logistics management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning). Business statistics (Focus/Session: Application of Hypothesis Testing).

Supplementary materials

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

Subject code

CSS 9: Operations and logistics.

Details

Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2045-0621

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Sesha Iyer, Malay Krishna and Sunny Vijay Arora

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.3. Monte…

Abstract

Learning outcomes

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learning objectives

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

Case overview/synopsis

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

Complexity academic level

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Supplementary material

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

Subject code

CSS 7: Management Science.

Details

Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2045-0621

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

Karl Schmedders and Armin Rott

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most…

Abstract

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?

The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

Details

Kellogg School of Management Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-6568
Published by: Kellogg School of Management

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Joe Anderson, James I. Hilliard, Josh Williams and Susan K. Williams

Josh Williams is a Student at the NAU who has driven buses on campus and wants to improve the transportation on campus. He is convinced that purchasing a new type of bus that is…

Abstract

Synopsis

Josh Williams is a Student at the NAU who has driven buses on campus and wants to improve the transportation on campus. He is convinced that purchasing a new type of bus that is more fuel efficient, has larger capacity, better designed for boarding, and has a longer life is worth the higher purchase cost. He sets out to prove it by creating a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Since many of the estimates for the DCF analysis are uncertain, he decides to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) analysis. Students are asked to step into Josh’s role and perform the analysis.

Research methodology

Josh Williams was a Student in the authors’ MBA program. Both authors teach in this program and one author was the Advisor for Net Impact and worked with Josh to present his idea to the university administration. The authors have changed a name or two but otherwise, the case describes a real situation in a real organization without disguise.

Relevant courses and levels

The authors have used this case in a first semester MBA-Applied Management course, Decision Modeling and Simulation. Students already have experience with DCF analysis and have been introduced to MCS. With this case, students apply MCS at the conclusion of a three-week module on predictive analytics. Students have run at least two MCS models and have become comfortable with the software. The case would also be appropriate for a senior-level undergraduate course such as business analytics or management science. It might also be useful for other courses that include the MCS modeling technique learning objectives such as project management.

Theoretical bases

This case provides an opportunity for students to perform an MCS analysis. MCS is useful when many of the inputs to a DCF analysis (or any model) have been estimated and the modeler is concerned that the estimates are uncertain and could perhaps be a range of values. MCS can be used to understand the effect of this uncertainty on NPV which in turn may affect the decision. The case could also be used without MCS focusing just on the DCF analysis with deterministic sensitivity analysis.

Details

The CASE Journal, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 1544-9106

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

Samuel E. Bodily and Eric Clark

A regional director of a consulting firm must decide how to compete for a major consulting contract. Appshop can take a level payment contract, a lower level payment with a…

Abstract

A regional director of a consulting firm must decide how to compete for a major consulting contract. Appshop can take a level payment contract, a lower level payment with a prospective bonus given high performance, or bid on an RFP where a significant reward is given contingent on the client's savings. The case can be used to introduce Monte Carlo simulation modeling and to build skills in structuring a decision tree in a spreadsheet. It affords an opportunity to simulate alternative risk profiles and to discuss their comparative advantages.

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

Samuel E. Bodily

An angel/venture capitalist could invest in an Internet sheet-music publishing start-up. The chance of success multiplied by the value, if successful, suggests that this isn't a…

Abstract

An angel/venture capitalist could invest in an Internet sheet-music publishing start-up. The chance of success multiplied by the value, if successful, suggests that this isn't a good investment. Nevertheless, several friends suggest the optionality present in the venture: abort an unsuccessful website and sell the technology; switch the technology if the website is good, expand, buyout. Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulations are used to value these options, which make the opportunity look very attractive.

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

Samuel E. Bodily and John Faulk

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market…

Abstract

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Student and faculty spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity. A teaching note is also available to registered faculty members.

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 28 August 2017

Craig Furfine

In early December 2013, Roxann Biller, Associate at the Chicago-based private equity firm Delta Quantitative Real Estate Capital, was asked to assess the risk associated with the…

Abstract

In early December 2013, Roxann Biller, Associate at the Chicago-based private equity firm Delta Quantitative Real Estate Capital, was asked to assess the risk associated with the firm's first potential overseas investment. Haifu Sentā Gendaino (HSG) was a large multi-tenant logistics property located in the Gaikando area of Tokyo. High-quality tenants currently occupied the property, so at first glance the risks of investing in the property seemed minimal. However, Biller knew that she had to consider the potential drawbacks. This would mean gaining a better understanding of each tenant, trying to forecast the future condition of the Tokyo logistics market, and considering what new risks her firm would face because the property's cash flows were in a foreign currency.

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

Robert F. Bruner and Scott Stiegler

This case was developed to serve as a foundation for student discussion of the use of contingent forms of payment in M&A. The protagonist in the case represents the buyer, and…

Abstract

This case was developed to serve as a foundation for student discussion of the use of contingent forms of payment in M&A. The protagonist in the case represents the buyer, and must design terms of contingent payment (“arnout”) that will protect the buyer if the rosy future does not occur, yet reward the seller if it does. Students are given completed discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations of the target (Digitech) under both the seller's and buyer's forecasts, which reveal a wide gulf in valuation. The protagonist seeks to bridge this gulf through a combination of fixed and contingent payments to the seller. Two different earnout designs are suggested in the case. Students must simulate the value of the earnout to estimate the expected value of this provision from the standpoints of both the buyer and seller.

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 17 October 2012

Narender Lal Ahuja and Sweta Agarwal

Financial management, corporate finance, strategic management, managerial accounting and project management.

Abstract

Subject area

Financial management, corporate finance, strategic management, managerial accounting and project management.

Study level/applicability

The case is suitable for courses such as MBA, Bachelor level business courses (in finance, business strategy) and training programs for working executives.

Case overview

The case study deals with financial and strategic appraisal of a unique coal-to-liquid project. India imported about two thirds of its crude oil requirements resulting in huge outflow of precious foreign exchange. As a result, it became necessary for the country to look for alternative sources of energy. The coal-to-liquid (CTL) technology of coal gasification offers a credible alternative source of fuels as proved by Sasol of South Africa. The Government of India short-listed Global Synfuels Company (name changed) as one of the selected few companies to build a CTL project. While the project is strategically important to the company and highly desirable for the country, there are serious doubts about the commercial viability of the project because of which the company is in dilemma whether to go ahead with the project. The case study presents this decision dilemma in a very interesting way and will be useful for teaching courses in corporate finance and strategic management.

Expected learning outcomes

The case can be used to engage participants to make a SWOT analysis for a new business opportunity, discuss environmental and financial issues facing a company, use DCF techniques to evaluate the project viability, carry out scenario analysis of the project to the changes in variables as well as challenge the participants to generate strategies for the success of a new project. Participants would also develop a better understanding of: environmental issues involved in CTL projects and new technologies to deal with such issues; and the employment impact of large projects such as the CTL.

Supplementary materials

Teaching notes are available; please consult your librarian for access.

1 – 10 of 23