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1 – 2 of 2Mongi Arfaoui and Aymen Ben Rejeb
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.
Design/methodology/approach
A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.
Findings
The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.
Originality/value
Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.
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Aymen Ben Rejeb and Mongi Arfaoui
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent financial instability period.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a state space model combined with a standard GARCH(1,1) specification while taking into account structural breakpoints. The authors allow for efficiency and volatility spillovers to be time-varying and consider break dates to locate periods of financial instability.
Findings
Empirical results show that Islamic stock indexes are more volatile than their conventional counterparts and are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. As regards of the informational efficiency, the results show that the Islamic stock indexes are more efficient than the conventional stock indexes.
Practical implications
Resulting evidence of this paper has several implications for international investors who wish to invest in Islamic and/or conventional stock markets. Policy makers and even academics and Sharias researchers should as well take preventive measures in order to ensure the stability of Islamic stock markets during turmoil periods. Overall, prudent risk management and precocious financial practices are relevant and crucial for both Islamic and conventional financial markets.
Originality/value
The originality of this study is performed by the use of time-varying models for volatility spillovers and informational efficiency. It considers structural break dates that think about the dynamic effect of informational flows on stock markets. The study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.
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