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Article
Publication date: 7 January 2022

Mwangele Kaluba and Yudhvir Seetharam

While the momentum anomaly is prevalent in South Africa, few have examined the reasons influencing it. This study examines whether momentum profits vary through time and are…

Abstract

Purpose

While the momentum anomaly is prevalent in South Africa, few have examined the reasons influencing it. This study examines whether momentum profits vary through time and are affected by the state of the market and market volatility between 1998 and 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors consider combinations of portfolio construction, such as the lookback period, weighting scheme, measure of volatility and the volatility window period. They further examine the interaction of momentum with sentiment, default risk and semi-deviation as a measure of risk, as a means of testing whether behavioural factors have significant influence.

Findings

The results generally show that neither volatility nor market state has explanatory power on momentum profits.

Originality/value

These results make the momentum anomaly in South Africa an even greater mystery than before as they do not conform to the existing literature from developed economies. The authors do, however, find that default risk is a significant predictor of momentum profits, which is a useful additional factor for those fund managers who utilise momentum strategies. This implies that a fundamental factor, default risk, is a potential explanation for the market-related momentum anomaly.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2024

George Li, Ming Li and Shuming Liu

The paper aims to investigate whether or not a firm’s capital structure can interact with past stock returns to affect future stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate whether or not a firm’s capital structure can interact with past stock returns to affect future stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine whether or not capital structure can help improve momentum profit.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the US common stocks data from 1965 to 2022 to empirically examine the impact of capital structure on momentum profit.

Findings

When capital structure is measured either as the ratio of debt to asset or the ratio of liability to asset, we all find out that momentum strategies tend to be more profitable for stocks with large capital structure.

Originality/value

Besides documenting the empirical evidence of the impact of capital structure on momentum profit, the authors also present a simple explanation for their empirical results and show that their finding is consistent with the behavioral finance theory that characterizes investors’ increased psychological bias and the more limited arbitrage opportunity when the estimation of firm value becomes more difficult or less accurate.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2023

Xuebing Yang and Huilan Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to study the US stock market and try to explain why short-term contrarian profits have largely disappeared in the past two decades.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the US stock market and try to explain why short-term contrarian profits have largely disappeared in the past two decades.

Design/methodology/approach

In this work, the authors decompose the short-term contrarian profits into cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects to study the changes in their shares. Then, the authors study the behavior of the subgroups in the winner and loser subportfolios of contrarian investment strategies.

Findings

The authors find that short-term contrarian profits have largely vanished since 2000. Changes in the shares of the three components of contrarian profits, which are cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects, are not the main reason for the disappearance of contrarian profits in the past two decades. Instead, the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits is primarily due to the heterogeneous evolution of subgroups in the portfolio, which leads to a decrease in the overall level of overreactions that drive the contrarian profit.

Originality/value

The work explains the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits in the US stock market.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 January 2022

Tuan Ho, Y Trong Nguyen, Hieu Truong Manh Tran and Dinh-Tri Vo

The pupose of the paper is to study the usefulness of Piotroski (2000)'s F-score in separating winners and losers in Vietnam.

Abstract

Purpose

The pupose of the paper is to study the usefulness of Piotroski (2000)'s F-score in separating winners and losers in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt a portfolio analysis and regression analysis on a sample of 501 of listed firms between 2009 and 2019 in Vietnam.

Findings

The authors find that a hedge strategy that buys high-F-score firms and sells low-F-score firms yield market-adjusted return of over 30 percent annually, which is statistically and economically significant. The hedge strategy based on F-score is not only profitable for value (high book-to-market [BM]) firms but also earn abnormal returns in a sample of growth (low BM) firms, suggesting that the usefulness of F-score strategy is not just a phenomenon in value firms as documented in previous literature.

Research limitations/implications

Whilst the authors' paper documents economically significant returns obtained from the F-score strategy, the authors do not examine what drives the abnormal returns.

Practical implications

The results provide supporting evidence for the use of financial statement analysis as a screening tool to improve the performance of value investment in Vietnam stock market and for the training of financial reporting and fundamental analysis in universities.

Originality/value

The authors' research is the first study examining the F-score strategy in Vietnam that provides insights about the usefulness of fundamental analysis in separating winners and losers in a frontier market and contributes to the literature on fundamental analysis and market efficiency in emerging and frontier markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Firda Nosita and Rifqi Amrulloh

The authors believe the COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on supply and demand. The potential decline in real sector performance leads to lower expectations of securities…

Abstract

The authors believe the COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on supply and demand. The potential decline in real sector performance leads to lower expectations of securities performance. The uncertainty of future performance can change investor behaviour. This study tried to gain insight into stock investor behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that the majority of the investor realized and believed the pandemic would affect the stock market performance. Hence, they did not show herding behaviour and were very confident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey also indicates that investors tend to avoid risk rather than take the opportunity to buy at a lower price. Moreover, investors believe that the COVID-19 vaccine will soon be found, and the economy will return to normal. Government and self-regulated organizations (SRO) are responsible for making effective policies to convince the investors about the future prospect.

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from SEA
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-285-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Kun Wang and Xu Wu

As the world's largest emerging market, the evidence of momentum effect in China is also mixed. Meanwhile, prior studies mainly examined individual stock momentum in China, with…

Abstract

Purpose

As the world's largest emerging market, the evidence of momentum effect in China is also mixed. Meanwhile, prior studies mainly examined individual stock momentum in China, with little concern for industry momentum and its relationship with trading volume. The motivation of this study is to investigate industry momentum in China and examine whether trading volume can enhance its profitability.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the authors test the existence of industry momentum in China; secondly, the authors test the correlation between trading volume and momentum returns using the double ranking method; finally, the authors test whether trading volume enhances the momentum returns using Fama–French five-factor model.

Findings

The authors find that there is a significant industry momentum effect in China, and the momentum returns jointly come from winner and loser portfolios. The intervals between the formation and holding periods have an impact on the performance of momentum portfolios. In terms of trading volume, the authors find that high-volume industries have industry momentum effects while low-volume industries do not. The industry momentum strategies achieve higher excess returns in high-volume industries.

Practical implications

Prior literature found higher momentum returns in low-volume stocks in China, but the research in this study suggests that implementing an industry momentum strategy in low-volume industries will miss out on higher returns or even bring losses, and instead the investors should invest in high-volume industries to get the best performance.

Originality/value

This study extends existing research by focusing on industry momentum and its relationship with trading volume in the Chinese stock market and finds an interesting relationship between industry momentum returns and trading volume, which is different from related studies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Yan He, Ruixiang Jiang, Yanchu Wang and Hongquan Zhu

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that…

Abstract

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that the past loser-and-illiquid stock portfolios tend to outperform the past winner-and-liquid stock portfolios in the 1–12 months holding period. The excess return is significantly associated with the market-wide liquidity factor even when we control the three Fama-French and momentum factors. Cross-sectionally, the liquidity beta significantly affects the excess return even with control of other risk betas and other traditional liquidity proxies.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 May 2023

Hsiang-Hsi Liu, Pi-Hsia Hung and Tzu-Hu Huang

This research examines stock traders' disposition effects and contrarian/momentum behavior in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Specifically, we first investigate disposition…

Abstract

This research examines stock traders' disposition effects and contrarian/momentum behavior in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Specifically, we first investigate disposition effects across all trader types and then examine the relationships between disposition effects, trader types, and order characteristics. Next, we explore contrarian and/or momentum behavior and analyze the relationships among the contrarian/momentum behavior, investor type, and order characteristics. Finally, the links among trader types, order characteristics, and investment performance are detected. This chapter yields the following findings. (1) Individual investors exhibit the strongest disposition effects compared to other investors. (2) Foreign investors, investment trusts, and individual investors tend to use large orders to sell loser stocks. (3) Investment trusts are inclined to be momentum traders, while individual investors tend to perform contrarian strategies. (4) Institutional aggressive and large orders perform better than individuals' orders. (5) The performance of foreign investors' selling decisions is better than that of retail investors.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-401-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Ajay Bhootra

Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the…

Abstract

Purpose

Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the well-documented return predictability of the strategies based on the ratio of short-term to long-term moving averages can be enhanced by conditioning on information discreteness. Anchoring bias has been the popular explanation for the source of underreaction in the context of moving averages-based strategies. This paper proposes and studies another possible source based on investor inattention that can potentially result in superior performance of these strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses portfolio sorting as well as Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. For examining the role of information discreteness in the return predictability of the moving average ratio, the sample stocks are double-sorted based on the moving average ratio and information discreteness measure. The returns to these portfolios are computed using standard approaches in the literature. The regression approach controls for various well-known return predictors.

Findings

This study finds that the equally-weighted monthly returns to the long-short moving average ratio quintile portfolios increase monotonically from 0.54% for the discrete information portfolio to 1.37% for the continuous information portfolio over the 3-month holding period. This study observes a similar pattern in risk-adjusted returns, value-weighted portfolios, non-January returns, large and small stocks, for alternative holding periods and the ratio of 50-day to 200-day moving average. The results are robust to control for well-known return predictors in cross-sectional regressions.

Research limitations/implications

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to document the significant role of investor inattention to continuous information in the return predictability of strategies based on the moving average ratios. There are many underreaction anomalies that have been reported in the literature, and the paper's results can be extended to those anomalies in subsequent research.

Practical implications

The findings of this paper have important practical implications. Strategies based on moving averages are an extremely popular component of a technical analyst's toolkit. Their profitability has been well-documented in the prior literature that attributes the performance to investors' anchoring bias. This paper offers a readily implementable approach to enhancing the performance of these strategies by conditioning on a straightforward measure of information discreteness. In doing so, this study extends the literature on the role of investor inattention to continuous information in anomaly profits.

Originality/value

While there is considerable literature on technical analysis, and especially on the performance of moving averages-based strategies, the novelty of this paper is the analysis of the role of information discreteness in strategy performance. Not only does the paper document robust evidence, but the findings suggest that the investor’s inattention to continuous information is a more dominant source of underreaction compared to anchoring. This is an important result, given that anchoring has so far been considered the source of return predictability in the literature.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2023

Steve Fan, Linda Yu, Deborah Beyer and Scott Beyer

This paper jointly examines how firm size and idiosyncratic risk impact momentum returns.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper jointly examines how firm size and idiosyncratic risk impact momentum returns.

Design/methodology/approach

Using regression analysis, the authors investigate how firm size and idiosyncratic risk impact price momentum. The authors review firm price data in 25 country markets in the Thomson Financial Datastream database from 1979 to 2009.

Findings

This study’s findings suggest price momentum is more significant among stocks with smaller size and higher idiosyncratic risk. The authors find that winner and loser portfolios have significantly smaller size and higher idiosyncratic risk than portfolios in the middle quintiles.

Research limitations/implications

This study’s results are consistent with the notion that firm size matters in price momentum and mispricing is greatest for small firms because of the greater risk potential to arbitrageurs. In addition, this finding that firms with higher idiosyncratic risk have greater price momentum supports the idea that investors underreact to firm-specific information.

Practical implications

This work finds evidence that investors underreact to firm-specific information. As such, these findings are of particular interest for investors looking to exploit opportunities for abnormal returns through price momentum trading.

Originality/value

This paper jointly examines the effects of firm size and idiosyncratic risk on momentum returns. This investigation considers these effects in the global markets. This work adds to the research base by illustrating that both winner and loser portfolios have significantly smaller size and higher idiosyncratic risk than portfolios in the middle quintiles. Also unique to this study, the authors capture the time-variation of expected IdioRisk and the asymmetric effects of volatility by using an exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model to calculate conditional idiosyncratic risk.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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