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Article
Publication date: 13 March 2017

Mohsen Mohammadi, Mohammad Rahim Eivazi and Jafar Sajjadi

The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future

Findings

The authors presented a classification of wildcards with the same characteristics being natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). The authors also prioritized the weak signals to deal with the most important ones and take appropriate action in advance so as to minimize possible damages and maximize the benefits of potential wildcards in an uncertain environment.

Originality/value

In this paper, the authors report on the prioritizing of weak signals by applying Fuzzy TOPSIS and classify wildcards. This is significant because, by identifying the most important weak signals, appropriate actions can be taken in the future if necessary. The paper should be of interest to readers in the area of participatory foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 April 2018

Mohsen Mohammadi, Mohammad Rahim Eivazi, Gholam Reza Goudarzi and Einollah Keshavarz Turk

Various theoretical studies were carried out which attempted to identify impacting factors of cultural changes; however, these studies ignored the correlation among other…

Abstract

Purpose

Various theoretical studies were carried out which attempted to identify impacting factors of cultural changes; however, these studies ignored the correlation among other affecting factors all together. In this paper, the authors aim not only to discuss the hidden layers that trigger the cultural changes but also to answer the questions of how to identify the main factors in each layer based on casual layered analysis (CLA), which could have a strong impact in shaping other layers’ factors? What are the dominant metaphors and worldviews that human beings are telling themselves about our universe that influences the future cultural changes?

Design/methodology/approach

To answer the questions of “how to identify the main factors in each layer,” the CLA methodology was used to investigate the underlying reasons. CLA takes into account four layers (litany, social systems, dominant discourse and worldviews and metaphors), which could be a tremendous help in identifying the mentioned factors.

Findings

The analysis shows that there are some contributing factors such as economy, technology, politics, society, environment, mass media, globalization and migration at the second layer – “social systems layer” – which may trigger cultural changes in first layer “litany”; in addition, in the third and deeper layer two dominant worldviews – materialist/secular and religious affecting the contributing factors in the second layer – were identified. Such worldviews are, in turn, supported by metaphors or perfect stories/myths of the deepest layer.

Originality/value

It can be concluded that because the cultural changes as a reality is composed of different layers, it is important to dig into different layers of reality to comprehend the significant shaping factors of that reality to visualize and make the better future.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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