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This paper considers the effects on current pensioner incomes of reforms designed to improve the long-term sustainability of public pension systems in the European Union. We use EUROMOD to simulate a set of common illustrative reforms for four countries selected on the basis of their diverse pension systems and patterns of poverty among the elderly: Denmark, Germany, Italy and the UK. The variations in fiscal and distributive effects on the one hand suggest that different paths for reform are necessary in order to achieve common objectives across countries, and on the other provide indications of the appropriate directions for reform in each case.

Regional minimum income (RMI) schemes have been a fundamental tool for fighting poverty in Spain at a regional level. However, the redistributive power of these schemes has not been as effective as was expected in reducing inequality during the last decades. On the other hand, the introduction of the new ‘Minimum Vital Income’ (MVI) by the Spanish Central Government represents a novel measure for fighting poverty, by guaranteeing minimum incomes from a national perspective as a policy response to the asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 crisis upon income distribution. Using EUROMOD,¹ this paper simulates both the distributional effects of the introduction of the MVI and what the effects on inequality and poverty in each Spanish region would be if the national scheme were to substitute the current regional schemes. The results referring to MVI introduction indicate that inequality and poverty would decrease in all dimensions: incidence, intensity, and inequality among the poor (Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty measures). Additionally, the negative effects of RMI elimination would be offset by the positive effects of MVI introduction for most regions, leading us to consider that the simulated scenario entails better redistributive results, as well as additional savings for Spanish Public Accounts, in a context of growing debt. Our findings can provide public policy-makers with useful information about the convenience of fighting poverty at a national level as regards distribution and revenue.

Poverty dynamics and the ability of the Italian welfare system to reduce poverty are investigated by using the 1991‐1995 panel of the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Households most exposed to poverty live in the South, have a larger size, a young or female head, with a low educational level or a discontinuous work profile. The dynamic and static effectiveness (in terms of poverty reduction) of social transfers is analysed, as well as the factors affecting exclusion from the safety net. A closer look is taken at the effects of a minimum income guarantee in the experimental phase in Italy.

This paper examines the Italian social policy instruments to contrast poverty among the elderly, focussing on the so-called social pension. Firstly, it analyses the institutional characteristics of the social pension, assessing its explicit and implicit design according to poverty indicators that are consistent with the official standards by the Italian Poverty Commission. The main conclusions are that the social pension acts as a limit to the poverty intensity rather than as a limit to the poverty incidence, and that in case of beneficiaries with a dependent spouse the pension includes an extra benefit that ensures the couple is receiving a minimum income above the poverty line. Secondly, the paper examines the ex-post performance of the social pension, by using data from the Bank of Italy Survey of Households Income and Wealth (BISHIW). In this analysis we take into consideration also individuals' and household's characteristics that are ignored by the law requisites for the access. Data point to some inefficiency in the selectivity of the system and to some ineffectiveness in contrasting poverty. For a social pensioner's household the econometric analysis shows that the probability of falling into poverty is higher, but only during economic downturns; that poverty on average is more widespread, although less intense; that poverty has more a cyclical than a persistent nature. Furthermore, there is evidence of a relevant role played by the interactions among household's and individuals' characteristics in determining the degree of exposure to poverty risks. An appropriate consideration of these aspects in the design of the tools directed at contrasting poverty seems vital in order to improve the effectiveness and the efficiency of the policy action.

Social assistance and inactivity traps have long been considered as one of the main causes of the poor employment performance of EU countries. The success of New Labour in the UK has triggered a growing interests in instruments capable of combining the promotion of responsibility and self-sufficiency with solidarity with less skilled workers. Making-work-pay (MWP) policies, consisting of transfers to households with low earning capacity, have quickly emerged as the most politically acceptable instruments in tax-benefit reforms of many Anglo-Saxon countries. This chapter explores the impact of introducing the British Working Families’ Tax Credit (WFTC) in three EU countries with rather different labor market and welfare institutions: Finland, France and Germany. Simulating the reform reveals that, while first-round effects on income distribution is considerable, the interaction of the new instrument with the structural characteristics of the economy and the population may lead to counterproductive second round effects (i.e. changes in economic behavior). The implementation of the reform, in this case, could only be justified if the social inclusion (i.e. transition into activity) of some specific household types (singles and single mothers) is valued more than a rise in the employment per se.

The need to alleviate poverty and achieve the United Nations (UN) 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through Universal Social Protection (USP) mechanisms is a high priority for governments and international organisations (IOs). This paper focuses on the recent introduction of a general minimum income (GMI) in Greece, in the context of the international diffusion of governing expertise. It examines whether the “universal” scheme being implemented constitutes a paradigm shift likely to offer solutions to the country's previous fragmented and unjust welfare system, and to problems the society has faced since the 2010s depression.

The paper uses critical grounded theory, with data gathering through iterative field observations and semi-structured interviews.

Results highlight the elusiveness of USP normative promises: rather than enhancing people's effective freedoms to act as self-determining agents, USP pushes the poor to adapt to current degraded socio-economic conditions. Participation in the shadow economy is a structural feature of USP; it is implicitly tolerated insofar as it is regarded, in the words of the World Bank (WB), an “engine for growth”. This constitutes an institutional and governance challenge for the implementation and expansion of social welfare programmes and could compromise the 2030 SDGs Agenda.

While research to date has examined the “modernisation” of the Greek welfare system in a national or comparative perspective, it adds to the literature by framing the study in the field of global social policy, shedding light on the discrepancies between internationally designed mechanisms and the normative aims of USP.

As unemployment rises across the European Union (EU), it is important to understand the extent to which the incomes of the new unemployed are protected by tax–benefit systems and to assess the cost pressures on the social protection systems of this increase in unemployment. This chapter uses the EU tax–benefit model EUROMOD to explore these issues, comparing effects in five EU countries. It provides evidence on the differing degrees of resilience of the household incomes of the newly unemployed due to the variations in the protection offered by the tax–benefit systems, according to whether unemployment benefit is payable, the household situation of the unemployed person and across countries.

The administration of social assistance benefits is devolved to local agencies in Belgium, which raises questions about how much variation in spell lengths of benefit receipt is associated with differences across agencies. We address this issue by analysing the monthly hazard of benefit exit using administrative record data for 14,270 individuals in 574 welfare agencies. Our random-effects model allows for differences in both the observed and unobserved characteristics of beneficiaries and of local agencies. There are large differences in median benefit duration for individuals serviced by different welfare agencies: the range is from two months to more than 24 months. We find strong associations between beneficiary characteristics (sex, age, foreign nationality, citizenship acquisition, work history and being a student) and spell length. The estimates show higher odds of exiting social assistance receipt in bigger municipalities and in agencies which provide more generous supplementary assistance, and also strong evidence of shorter episodes in agencies where active labour market programme participation rates are higher.

This paper explores the fragmented social policy choices imposed in Greece during the turbulent period 2010–2020. The institutional, political, and economic crisis brought in the enforcement of huge austerity reforms provoking deep socioeconomic devaluation: in GDP, in available income, in job opportunities, in living standards, in social protection. The decade is marked by a couple of mismatches diminishing welfare provision and mounting social need, inexpedient national administration, and unbalanced international intervention. A major cause of the national bankruptcy has been the stark imbalances of a residual social policy system which never aimed at tackling inequalities, challenging market outcomes, or fighting poverty. A fractured system distributing welfare according to individualistic/corporatist criteria, preserving a clientelistic/corrupting pattern, focusing upon an unfair/irrational pension provision. At a first sight, the urgent changes during the crisis have reinforced residualism, deregulated social/labor rights, reproduced inadequacies, exacerbated the discontinuities with the European Social Model. At a second reading, they have also recalibrated the system embracing elements of universality, unity, rationality, sustainability, and equity. In sum, the 2021 social policy starting point provides modest protection and keeps complexities, contradictions and controversies. The crisis imposed a welfare strategy of cuts that has produced less provision, stricter conditions, more harmony, dubious viability, dribs, and drabs of justice. The pandemic health crisis gives now prominence to the neglected but crucial role of the NHS and, in a broader sense, to the vital importance of institutionalised welfare provision.