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The paper offers the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of dynamics of economic growth slowdown for India at the sub-national level covering the period 1993–2013. In light of India’s regional diversity and variation in terms of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita, the purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the growth dynamics at the sub-national level. The paper aims to answer two questions: first, are determinants of economic slowdown likely to differ across income groups? Second, what are the probabilities that the sub-national economies in India will experience a growth slowdown in the near future?

The paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of growth slowdown for 106 Asian developing economies encompassing the national economies in ASEAN and the sub-national economies in Greater China, Indonesia and India. To be sure, the authors are not making any direct comparison to countries at different stages of economic development; rather, the comparison is between economies/sub-national economies that fall in the same income category. The authors construct income group-specific logistic model to identify the relevant determinants of growth slowdown and use Bayesian model averaging techniques as a robustness check. The authors also compute economy-specific predictive probabilities of growth slowdown over the period 2012–2017.

The empirical results show that a growth slowdown in various income groups tends to be associated with different sets of determinants, although broadly, across all income groups, the occurrence of growth slowdown is positively associated with higher GRDP per capita. The average predictive probability of growth slowdown for India’s sub-national economies is 0.43, indicating that, on average, India’s sub-national economies have a 43 per cent chance of experiencing growth slowdown in the 2012–2017 period. Overall, the prospects of the sub-national economies of India are less worrying than that of Greater Chinese economies but bleaker than the outlook for economies in ASEAN and Indonesia.

The research contributes to the understandings of growth dynamics, especially the issue of growth slowdown, in India. This paper differs from the existing literature on growth dynamics by being India centric and analysing the issue of growth slowdown at the sub-national level. Despite a steady increase in the level of GRDP per capita for the sub-national economies of India since 1993, significant disparities still exist across economies. Identifying determinants of growth slowdown and subsequently computing predictive probabilities serves as early warning signs for policy-makers and generates insights on how development policy can be shaped.

This study investigates the tax evasion practices in a lower-middle income economy in South Asia, with specific reference to Bangladesh (which is the only economy within South Asia that had consistent 6% and above gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2011 to 2013). This study adopted mixed methodology (documentary analyses and a focus group interviews with 20 participants) to reach the overall objective of the research. Using Hofstede et al.’s (2010) cultural theory, the contribution of the study is that the cultural dimension itself cannot correspond to the causes of tax evasion, the other institutional factors (e.g., political connectedness in both private and public sectors, multinational companies (MNC)’s role and corruption, and a lack of public sector accountability and enforcement) are needed to complement the causes of tax evasion. The second major contribution is that Hofstede’s last two dimensions (i.e., short-term and restraint society) can correspond to the preliminary four dimensions (i.e., uncertainty avoidance (UA), masculinity, power distance (PD), and individualism). A restraint society such as Bangladesh is short-term oriented and has established corruption norms and secretive culture. There is also a perception by corporate business that the tax system as unfair and this has major consequences for the poor and the level of trust between the tax authorities and the taxpayers. This study also questions Hofstede’s model application in other developing economies with military and democracy political regimes. The major policy implications include Income Tax Ordinance, the reform of tax administration and enforcement. The novelty of this study rests in the fact that the findings may well inform local and international policymakers (e.g., World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)) regarding how to tackle tax evasion practices in lower-middle income economies like Bangladesh. Further, it fills a gap in the literature exploring tax evasion in a lower-middle income economy – in this case, Bangladesh.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of sales, as a proxy for size, in moderating the impact of institutional incongruence between formal and informal institutions on the formalization of microenterprises in middle-income countries in Latin America.

The paper uses a probit regression model to examine business formalization as a binary outcome of formal and informal institutions. Data was collected through interviews and surveys across 52 municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile. The study used a stratified sampling approach and was conducted between November 2022 and January 2023.

The results offer three key insights into the formalization of microenterprises in middle-income countries. First, we show that formal institutions do not significantly influence formalization decisions among microentrepreneurs in middle-income countries, challenging the traditional belief that formal institutions alone significantly influence formalization in these contexts. Second, we show that informal institutions are significant predictors of informality, especially among smaller microenterprises. Third, we highlight that the smaller the business, the stronger the negative effect of informal institutions on formalization, and thus, the institutional incongruence between formal and informal institutions decreases for larger businesses.

This paper contributes to management literature by shedding light on the drivers of formalization in middle-income countries, a departure from most formalization studies wherein the focus is primarily on low-income economies. The findings suggest that policymakers in middle-income countries should focus on enabling microenterprise growth through sales, rather than targeting specific demographic groups or relying solely on formal institutional enforcement to promote formalization.

El objetivo de este estudio es investigar el papel de las ventas, utilizadas como un indicador de tamaño, en la mediación del impacto de la incongruencia institucional entre instituciones formales e informales en la formalización de microempresas en países de ingresos medios en América Latina.

Utilizamos un modelo de regresión Probit para examinar la formalización empresarial como un resultado binario de instituciones formales e informales. Los datos se recopilaron a través de 110 entrevistas y encuestas en 52 municipios de la Región Metropolitana de Santiago, Chile. El estudio empleó un enfoque de muestreo estratificado y se llevó a cabo entre noviembre de 2022 y enero de 2023.

Nuestros resultados ofrecen tres ideas clave sobre la formalización de microempresas en países de ingresos medios. Primero, demostramos que las instituciones formales no influyen significativamente en las decisiones de formalización entre las microempresas en países de ingresos medios; esto desafía la creencia tradicional de que las instituciones formales por sí solas influyen significativamente en la formalización en estos contextos. Segundo, nuestro estudio muestra que las instituciones informales son predictores significativos de la informalidad, especialmente entre las microempresas más pequeñas. Tercero, nuestro estudio destaca que el efecto negativo de las instituciones informales sobre la formalización es más fuerte para negocios de menor tamaño; por lo tanto, la incongruencia institucional entre instituciones formales e informales disminuye para negocios de mayor tamaño.

Este artículo contribuye a la literatura iluminando sobre los impulsores de la formalización en países de ingresos medios, a diferencia de la mayoría de los estudios de formalización en la región latinoamericana que se centran principalmente en países de bajos ingresos. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que los responsables de políticas en países de ingresos medios deberían centrarse en impulsar el crecimiento de las microempresas a través de las ventas, en lugar de enfocarse en grupos demográficos específicos o depender únicamente del cumplimiento institucional formal para promover la formalización.

O objetivo deste estudo é investigar o papel das vendas, usadas como um indicador de tamanho, na mediação do impacto da incongruência institucional entre instituições formais e informais na formalização de microempresas em países de renda média na América Latina.

Utilizamos um modelo de regressão Probit para examinar a formalização empresarial como um resultado binário de instituições formais e informais. Os dados foram coletados por meio de 110 entrevistas e pesquisas em 52 municípios da Região Metropolitana de Santiago, Chile. O estudo empregou uma abordagem de amostragem estratificada e foi realizado entre novembro de 2022 e janeiro de 2023.

Nossos resultados oferecem três ideias-chave sobre a formalização de microempresas em países de renda média. Primeiro, demonstramos que as instituições formais não influenciam significativamente as decisões de formalização entre as microempresas em países de renda média; isso desafia a crença tradicional de que as instituições formais, por si só, influenciam significativamente a formalização nesses contextos. Segundo, nosso estudo mostra que as instituições informais são preditores significativos da informalidade, especialmente entre as microempresas menores. Terceiro, nosso estudo destaca que o efeito negativo das instituições informais sobre a formalização é mais forte para negócios de menor porte; portanto, a incongruência institucional entre instituições formais e informais diminui para negócios de maior porte.

Este artigo contribui para a literatura iluminando os impulsionadores da formalização em países de renda média, ao contrário da maioria dos estudos de formalização na região latino-americana, que se concentram principalmente em países de baixa renda. Nossos achados sugerem que os responsáveis pelas políticas em países de renda média deveriam focar em impulsionar o crescimento das microempresas por meio das vendas, em vez de se concentrar em grupos demográficos específicos ou depender exclusivamente do cumprimento institucional formal para promover a formalização.

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the indirect and direct effects of remittances in developing countries.

The paper estimates a dynamic macroeconomic model and estimates the short‐run and long‐run dynamic multiplier effects of hypothetical temporary changes in remittances, as well as simulates the permanent effects of observed remittances.

The results indicate positive multiplier effects in general, and they also reveal a substantial variability across income categories and regions. The results indicate that low‐income economies are more inclined to spend their incomes on consumption and investments than middle‐income economies and, therefore, have a higher short‐run potential gain from receiving remittances. Low‐income economies typically reside in Sub‐Saharan Africa, whereas middle‐income economies are mainly found in East Europe, Latin America and North Africa and the Middle East. However, actual gains from remittances are highest in lower middle‐income economies because these countries receive more remittances. Generally, the short‐run effects are higher than the long‐run effects due to a sustained dependence of imported goods and services.

The paper analyzes the effects of remittances on components in aggregate demand.

The results support the World Bank's current policy recommendation that remittances should be promoted.

The paper corrects the algebraic solution for dynamic multiplier effects in Glytsos's work, written in 2005, and estimates the model for a macroeconomic panel containing 115 developing countries. The paper considers the effects of the net flows of remittances rather than of inflows only.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate foreign direct investment (FDI) premia in the former Soviet states.

The authors follow an empirical approach. Using Orbis data for a sample of more than 3,000 companies, the authors characterize FDI involvement and FDI premia of firms from three distinctive groups of former Soviet states, designated “upper-middle”-income, “lower-middle”-income and “high”-income countries. This yields interesting within-group and between-group results on the effects of outward FDI (OFDI) and inward FDI (IFDI) on firm-level innovation.

The authors unveil new facts about innovation and FDI in the former Soviet states. FDI firms innovate more than non-FDI firms and OFDI firms innovate more than IFDI firms. The innovation effect of OFDI is the largest for firms from the “lower-middle” countries, followed by the “high” and “upper-middle” countries. The innovation effect of IFDI is the largest for firms from the “lower-middle” countries, followed by the “upper-middle” and “high” countries. FDI to and from Europe has the largest impact on innovation; this holds across country groups.

The estimates of this paper document robust FDI premia, i.e., a positive and significant correlation between firm-level innovation and FDI. However, the cross-sectional nature of the data does not permit a proper causality analysis.

The paper contributes to the literature on FDI premia by: considering IFDI and OFDI in a unified empirical framework; dissecting IFDI and OFDI by location; measuring firm-level productivity in terms of innovation; and providing cross-country comparable evidence on both emerging and advanced economies. At the same time, the paper contributes to the literature on FDI from emerging economies by: taking a firm-level quantitative approach; focusing on a relatively unexplored set of countries; and providing comparable cross-country evidence on both emerging and advanced economies.

Rejecting building information modeling (BIM) can negatively impact the architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) industries. While BIM is trending globally, its implementation in post-conflict low-income economies is still limited. The purpose of this paper is to identify the critical factors for implementing BIM in a post-conflict low-income economy, using Afghanistan as a case study.

This study identifies potential affecting factors for BIM implementation through reviewing existing literature and interviewing AEC professionals in Afghanistan. Then, the factors are inserted into a questionnaire survey and disseminated with Afghanistan’s AEC practitioners. The collected data was analyzed to determine the critical factors. Also, the underlying relationships between the critical factors were established through factor analysis.

A total of 11 critical factors are affecting BIM implementation in Afghanistan. From those, nine factors can be grouped into the following three components: technological, environmental and organizational. Two factors, “cost-benefit of implementing BIM” and “market demand for BIM,” are recurring in low- and middle-income economies. Conversely, the “presence of appropriate projects to implement BIM” is the unique critical factor for Afghanistan that might affect other post-conflict low-income economies.

This study focuses on affecting factors for BIM implementation in post-conflict low-income economies, using Afghanistan as a reference rather than other types of economies that have been widely studied.

This study aims to examine the effects of energy consumption on economic growth by means of a panel data analysis of 75 net energy-importing countries for the period 1990 to 2012.

For the purpose of the analysis, the countries are classified into two groups, and each group is then classified into subgroups. The first group is formed based on the energy import dependence of the countries and is classified into two subgroups according to whether their dependence is greater than or less than 50 per cent. The second group is formed based on the income level of the countries and is classified into four subgroups, specifically, low-income economies, lower-middle-income economies, upper-middle-income economies and high-income economies.

The findings obtained for both panel data and for each country indicate that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between energy consumption and economic growth over the long term such that energy consumption contributes more to economic growth as the import dependence of the country decreases. Moreover, the effect of energy consumption on economic growth decreases as the income level of the country increases. This indicates that the efficient use of energy is as important as energy consumption, which is regarded as an important indicator of economic development.

The authors expect that these findings will make a valuable contribution to the results of future studies, as they analyze the relationships among the variables by including the energy intensities of the countries.

Este estudio examina los efectos del consumo de energía en el crecimiento económico, mediante un análisis de datos de panel de 75 países importadores netos de energía para el período 1990-2012.

A los efectos del análisis, los países se clasifican en dos grupos y cada grupo luego se clasifica en subgrupos. El primer grupo se forma en base a la dependencia de los países en materia de importación de energía y se clasifica en dos subgrupos según su dependencia sea superior o inferior al 50%. El segundo grupo se forma sobre la base del nivel de ingresos de los países y se clasifica en cuatro subgrupos: economías de ingresos bajos, economías de ingresos medios-bajos, economías de ingresos medios-altos y economías de ingresos altos.

Los hallazgos obtenidos, tanto para los datos de panel como para cada país, indican que existe una relación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre el consumo de energía y el crecimiento económico a largo plazo, de modo que el consumo de energía contribuye más al crecimiento económico a medida que disminuye la dependencia de las importaciones del país. Además, el efecto del consumo de energía en el crecimiento económico disminuye a medida que aumenta el nivel de ingresos del país. Esto indica que el uso eficiente de la energía es tan importante como el consumo de la misma, que se considera un indicador importante del desarrollo económico.

Los autores esperan que estos hallazgos aporten una valiosa contribución para estudios futuros, ya que analizan las relaciones entre las variables mediante la inclusión de las intensidades de los países.

Consumo de energía, Crecimiento económico, Importadores netos de energía, Panel de datos

Artículo de investigación

In the recent decades, the green projects have suffered from serious lack of investment, highlighting the major role of green financing to attract private investors to these projects. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the economic impacts of green bond (GB) market in 37 Asian economies.

To empirically analyze the impacts of issued GBs on different macroeconomic variables of 37 Asian countries, the co-integration and causality approaches are employed to analyze the data for the period of 2002–2018.

The primary findings indicated the presence of a unidirectional causal direction running from inflation rate, inward FDI, governance indicator, and human development index to issued GBs for the sample of Asian economies that were analyzed. Regarding Group I (higher and upper-middle income Asian countries), there are bi-directional relationships between the GB and other variables, indicating that the policies of governments in each variable influence other variables, whereas for Group II (low and lower-middle income Asian countries), there are uni-directional relationships running from HDI, governance indicator, and inflation rate to GBs, but only bi-directional causal relationships.

In Asian economies with a lower per capita income, implementing policies to enhance the efficiency of issued GBs so that they have a positive impact on economic activities and human development may be an appropriate strategy with major policy implications. In this way, financial system improvement, financing rural electrification and the transition to electric vehicles through GBs are recommended, while for the case of high- and upper-middle-income economies in Asia, simplifying capital flows from abroad to the GB market can be considered a practical policy.

This study contributes to current green finance research by studying the effects of several variables on the GB market for the instance of Asian countries with low and lower-middle incomes, as well as high-upper middle incomes.

After some years in which industrial policy was frowned upon, it is now widely considered to be a legitimate arena for policy formulation. The danger is that policymakers will seek to return to previously implemented policies. However many elements of this historic policy agenda are not replicable because of changes in global governance regulations. But changing framing conditions in the global economy also mean that the historic agenda is no longer optimal.

This chapter discusses four disruptive structural changes which affect the industrial policy agenda – the changing manufactures-commodities terms of trade, the centrality of global value chains in world industrial production, the growth of environmental externalities which affect growth and development, and the need to develop more inclusive patterns of growth.

The key findings are that there is scope for industrial policies to successfully confront these challenges, but that this will be contextual and may require a mix of policies designed to meet multiple objectives.

Significantly, industrial policy should be seen as a process aligning the operations of key stakeholders and subject to change as conditions alter, rather than as an industrial policy roadmap of the sort which frequently characterised policy in the past.

This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the financial development in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) and examines its impact on its economic growth.

The authors use a Panel Data Regression Analysis on a sample of 21 countries in MECA for the period 2008–2018.

Using the financial development indices and subindices retrieved from IMF, the study finds that the whole region has a below average index compared to other developing regions. However, this hides a great deal of variation across MECA countries. Surprisingly, financial development does not necessarily contribute to economic growth. It seems that some developing countries are still not predisposed to benefit from financial development due to several obstacles.

The authors recommend policymakers and regulators in MECA to promote financial stability and keep inflation in check so that economic agents can reap the fruits of financial development and foster economic growth. Policymakers should also stimulate competition in the financial sector, build skillful human capital, attract foreign direct investments, strengthen supervision and forensic audit and more importantly reinforce the independence of central banks.

The authors mitigate the shortcomings of single indicators as proxies for financial development by using the IMF Financial Development index that captures the depth, access and efficiency of both financial institutions and financial markets. The authors employ lower-middle-, upper-middle and high-income country groups to test the magnitude of income level on the relationship between financial development and economic growth.