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The development of any region or territory stems from its own dynamic nature. Economic activity and employment are stimulated by the number of local initiatives plus the cross‐fertilisation of those same initiatives. Globalisation, external constraints and technological change are therefore not really obstacles to be overcome but rather opportunities to be seized. In our experience, participatory foresight exercise using simple and appropriate methods has proved to be a powerful lever for promoting territorial dynamics.

Looks at an approach to scenario planning characterized by its future‐oriented attitude, and attributed to Michel Godet — a French strategy specialist. Uses a Figure depicting Godet's scenario method for added emphasis. Depicts Godet's scenario as a description of a future situation and the course of events that allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Concludes scenario‐building teams should be kept together because frequent changes of personnel have an adverse effect.

In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so‐called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.

Tempting as it is to be deterministic about world trade, Western economies are facing a number of new challenges. The collapse of hi‐tech stocks has prompted a re‐evaluation of the new economy, yet traditional economic models no longer offer reliable predictions for the future. New information and communications technology has unquestionably jump‐started America’s economy, yet its re‐found prosperity is in many ways illusory. While the economists debate the relevance of classical theory, one inescapable fact confronts the nations of Europe: the inexorable decline of their population – and with it, their intellectual capital.

This article considers the European agricultural battlefield where farmers face the problem of new challenges to the environment and food safety which only add to the problems of productivity or competitiveness. Logical agriculture (or integrated farming) seeks to reconcile economic competitiveness, product quality and safety in the food chain with respect for the environment by using products to preserve the potential for development for future generations and by establishing quality assurance and certification systems to ensure sustainable development. In order to save the rural aspect of agriculture while simultaneously contributing towards sustainable development, the article suggests complementary routes which would smooth the transition from agriculture to ecoculture thereby keeping and reinforcing the trust of the citizen‐consumer.

This article aims to treat contemporary economic development from a regional and European perspective.

The article applies a French prospective (foresight) approach to the issues of employment, decentralization, and privatization as an antidote to the usual discussions of governance and globalization.

The article stresses the need for simple, appropriable methods and questions designed to help groups start futures exercises. It contrasts key concepts such as corporation and region, governance and its popular definitions to show how collective futures exercises are a vector in regional development and a form of participatory democracy. The focus is on the human factor, i.e. local initiatives, which improve regional dynamics and create strong ties. An appendix outlines current French priorities.

The article appeals to local “actors” to look toward the future together in a participatory, proactive process within regional and broader European frameworks.

Identificar los aspectos que los Actores Sociales consideran en la construcción de futuros compartidos en las comunidades. En su aplicación en los países emergentes, especialmente en el Sur Global, a menudo se pasan por alto las particularidades socioculturales de las comunidades y los actores, generando fricciones o conflictos sociales. Este artículo presenta dos elementos críticos que contribuyen al debate: a) la importancia de entender a los Actores Sociales dentro de un modelo de generación de futuros comunitarios en los países emergentes; b) los factores relevantes que influyen en los actores en un ejercicio de construcción de futuros en las comunidades.

A partir de la investigación cualitativa, se utilizó un estudio de caso de prospectiva comunitaria del futuro: El futuro de Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). Se aplicó un método de recolección de información a partir de la observación de los participantes y el análisis de la documentación. El método de análisis fue el DQA (Análisis Cualitativo Deductivo).

La participación de Los Actores Sociales presenta un modelo de cinco elementos relevantes que influyen en los actores para la construcción exitosa de futuros en las comunidades. Los primeros cuatro factores, revelados por la teoría, existen en la realidad. Asimismo, se demuestra un quinto factor: el Pensamiento a Largo Plazo, que se evidencia en un Modelo de aplicación de Estudios de Futuros para el contexto específico, aplicable al caso de comunidades en países del Sur Global.

Si bien existen ejemplos aislados de recomendaciones respecto a estudios para generar el futuro de las comunidades, este es el primer estudio que presenta factores concretos que contribuyen a orientar la construcción de futuros comunitarios desde Actores Sociales, especialmente en países del Sur Global como Colombia. También es uno de los primeros estudios en utilizar el DQA como método de análisis en un tema de Estudios de Futuros.

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.

From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).

The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.

Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

This paper presents strategic alliances as one fundamental tool in the process of constructing the future. The alliances are based on prospective scenarios, within strategic interactions.

The central key is the view of the most probable future as a NASH balance point. This point identifies not only a balance of forces, but also the negotiation limits for each actor and therefore the strategic alliances possible. The alliances, if achieved, create a “super actor”, destabilizing the original balance, and creating a new balance point, and therefore a more likely new future.

This article develops a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.