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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2002

Michel Godet

The development of any region or territory stems from its own dynamic nature. Economic activity and employment are stimulated by the number of local initiatives plus the…

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Abstract

The development of any region or territory stems from its own dynamic nature. Economic activity and employment are stimulated by the number of local initiatives plus the cross‐fertilisation of those same initiatives. Globalisation, external constraints and technological change are therefore not really obstacles to be overcome but rather opportunities to be seized. In our experience, participatory foresight exercise using simple and appropriate methods has proved to be a powerful lever for promoting territorial dynamics.

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Foresight, vol. 4 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 1999

T Kippenberger

Looks at an approach to scenario planning characterized by its future‐oriented attitude, and attributed to Michel Godet — a French strategy specialist. Uses a Figure…

Abstract

Looks at an approach to scenario planning characterized by its future‐oriented attitude, and attributed to Michel Godet — a French strategy specialist. Uses a Figure depicting Godet's scenario method for added emphasis. Depicts Godet's scenario as a description of a future situation and the course of events that allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Concludes scenario‐building teams should be kept together because frequent changes of personnel have an adverse effect.

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The Antidote, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1363-8483

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2000

Michel Godet

In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using…

2108

Abstract

In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so‐called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.

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Foresight, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 December 2000

Michel Godet

Tempting as it is to be deterministic about world trade, Western economies are facing a number of new challenges. The collapse of hi‐tech stocks has prompted a…

2965

Abstract

Tempting as it is to be deterministic about world trade, Western economies are facing a number of new challenges. The collapse of hi‐tech stocks has prompted a re‐evaluation of the new economy, yet traditional economic models no longer offer reliable predictions for the future. New information and communications technology has unquestionably jump‐started America’s economy, yet its re‐found prosperity is in many ways illusory. While the economists debate the relevance of classical theory, one inescapable fact confronts the nations of Europe: the inexorable decline of their population – and with it, their intellectual capital.

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Foresight, vol. 2 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2000

Michel Godet

This article considers the European agricultural battlefield where farmers face the problem of new challenges to the environment and food safety which only add to the…

6155

Abstract

This article considers the European agricultural battlefield where farmers face the problem of new challenges to the environment and food safety which only add to the problems of productivity or competitiveness. Logical agriculture (or integrated farming) seeks to reconcile economic competitiveness, product quality and safety in the food chain with respect for the environment by using products to preserve the potential for development for future generations and by establishing quality assurance and certification systems to ensure sustainable development. In order to save the rural aspect of agriculture while simultaneously contributing towards sustainable development, the article suggests complementary routes which would smooth the transition from agriculture to ecoculture thereby keeping and reinforcing the trust of the citizen‐consumer.

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Foresight, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2005

Michel Godet

This article aims to treat contemporary economic development from a regional and European perspective.

774

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to treat contemporary economic development from a regional and European perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

The article applies a French prospective (foresight) approach to the issues of employment, decentralization, and privatization as an antidote to the usual discussions of governance and globalization.

Findings

The article stresses the need for simple, appropriable methods and questions designed to help groups start futures exercises. It contrasts key concepts such as corporation and region, governance and its popular definitions to show how collective futures exercises are a vector in regional development and a form of participatory democracy. The focus is on the human factor, i.e. local initiatives, which improve regional dynamics and create strong ties. An appendix outlines current French priorities.

Originality/value

The article appeals to local “actors” to look toward the future together in a participatory, proactive process within regional and broader European frameworks.

Details

Foresight, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 June 2022

Fredy Vargas-Lama

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.

Design/methodology/approach

From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).

Findings

The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.

Originality/value

Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2007

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

Design/methodology/approach

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

Findings

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Practical implications

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Originality/value

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2011

Fernando L. Franco, Alberto G. Canen and Nelio D. Pizzolato

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents strategic alliances as one fundamental tool in the process of constructing the future. The alliances are based on prospective scenarios, within strategic interactions.

Findings

The central key is the view of the most probable future as a NASH balance point. This point identifies not only a balance of forces, but also the negotiation limits for each actor and therefore the strategic alliances possible. The alliances, if achieved, create a “super actor”, destabilizing the original balance, and creating a new balance point, and therefore a more likely new future.

Originality/value

This article develops a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

Details

Business Strategy Series, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-5637

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2008

Jesus Navarro, Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros

The purpose of this paper is to report on how foresight methods are being used to address a “wicked problem” for the global furniture industry: “What are we going to do in

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to report on how foresight methods are being used to address a “wicked problem” for the global furniture industry: “What are we going to do in the furniture industry in high cost countries (HCC) to maintain our future competitiveness with respect to the competition coming from low cost countries?”

Design/methodology/approach

This study explores one sectorial initiative, CEFFOR® (Furniture Foresight Centre, headquarters in Valencia, Spain), that attempts to mitigate the negative impact of globalisation on the competitiveness of the furniture industry in HCCs, by creating a vision of a preferable future through the use of a set of qualitative foresight tools (structural analysis, morphological analysis/field anomaly relaxation, and cross impact analysis) involving a worldwide expert panel.

Findings

This paper examines the set‐up phase of the CEFFOR initiative, and describes the main elements of the morphological space developed to profile possible future configurations of the global furniture industry. Future papers will report on further model development and the subsequent take‐up of this work.

Practical implications

The approach used could be adapted to a variety of other industrial sectors. While this study examines a traditional industrial sector, there is no conceptual limitation on its use in other sectors, although such adaptation should clearly remain alert to the unique aspects of any industry.

Originality/value

The novelty of this initiative is the application of a normative foresight approach in a traditional industrial sector in order to generate a shared vision of a sustainable future, and to integrate this foresight approach with an existing business intelligence system.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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