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Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Nathaniel Horner, Antonio Geraldo de Paula Oliveira, Richard Silberglitt, Marcelo Khaled Poppe and Bárbara Bressan Rocha

This paper aims to use quantitative metrics to chart the unique history leading to Brazil’s leadership in renewable energy and identifies a set of meta-scenarios that define…

2188

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to use quantitative metrics to chart the unique history leading to Brazil’s leadership in renewable energy and identifies a set of meta-scenarios that define possible future carbon performance. These meta-scenarios provide a context for discussing specific energy policy implications both at the national scale and from the perspective of Brazil’s urban centres.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper defines and uses three metrics – energy efficiency, decarbonisation and carbon efficiency – to plot both Brazil’s historic energy pathway and a set of future energy scenarios put forth by various national and international energy agencies. The authors then use a meta-scenario approach to group these alternate pathways, identifying specific policy levers associated with the realisation of each.

Findings

The authors identify plausible policy changes that will help move Brazil off a current trajectory of stagnated energy performance to a “greener” scenario in which carbon efficiency improves even as Brazil’s economic growth continues. Such policies include energy efficiency programmes and continued expansion of the country’s already extensive hydropower and biomass capacity. Adoption of policies that would put Brazil on a more aggressive path towards a global sustainability scenario currently seems impractical.

Originality/value

This paper brings a standardized set of metrics to bear on Brazil’s unique energy history, which in turn helps identify specific policy impacts for continued GHG reduction in Brazil’s future from national and urban perspectives.

Details

foresight, vol. 18 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2016

Ellen van Oost, Stefan Kuhlmann, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros and Peter Stegmaier

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five…

4576

Abstract

Purpose

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations.

Findings

The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection.

Research limitations/implications

The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system.

Practical Implications

An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI.

Originality/value

This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.

Article
Publication date: 18 October 2011

Tugrul U. Daim, Ibrahim Iskin and Daniel Ho

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the performance and adoption of residential energy management technology (REMT).

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the performance and adoption of residential energy management technology (REMT).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper integrates scenarios, analogy and Bass diffusion model.

Findings

Four different scenarios were identified. Bass curve parameters were extracted through many different existing devices, and then fit into each scenario subjectively to produce four different kinds of diffusion curves.

Originality/value

The approach and the model provide decision and policy makers to evaluate how they should position new energy management innovations based on the desired type of diffusion.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Geci Karuri-Sebina, Karel-Herman Haegeman and Apiwat Ratanawaraha

2835

Abstract

Details

foresight, vol. 18 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Alexander Chulok, Svetlana N. Slobodianik and Evgeny Moiseichev

This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.

Design/methodology/approach

Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports.

Findings

Experimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified.

Practical implications

The results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy.

Originality/value

The paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 May 2008

Hongyi Chen and Tugrul U. Daim

The purpose of this paper is to assess effective integration of two emerging technologies, new emerging opportunities for them and their diffusion in China.

1323

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess effective integration of two emerging technologies, new emerging opportunities for them and their diffusion in China.

Design/methodology/approach

A multi‐perspective analysis and causal models were developed to assess the emerging technologies as a result of the integration. In addition, an initial system dynamics model is developed to explore their diffusion.

Findings

Based on multi‐perspective analysis and causal models in both global and national environments, problems such as security and reliability are identified. System dynamics modeling is used in this paper to assist such foresight process. Different scenarios are proposed by the modeling to offer possible solutions facilitating the development of voice and video over wireless area network (VVoWLAN) in China.

Research limitations/implications

While, the purpose of system dynamics modeling is to demonstrate the application of the methodology, simplifying assumptions are made. To deliver an accurate foresight model, additional data and modeling details will be required. This will lead to future works as an improvement of the model.

Practical implications

A multi‐perspective analysis and causal models were developed to assess the emerging technologies as a result of the integration. These models can easily be used by decision makers evaluating such technologies. The framework suggests that the diffusion of such emerging technologies like VVoWLAN needs to be planned strategically in order to fully realize the value of the integration opportunities identified in the first step.

Originality/value

The paper provides a framework for assessing emerging technologies in China.

Details

Journal of Technology Management in China, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8779

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Xia Zhang, Youchao Sun and Yanjun Zhang

Semantic modelling is an essential prerequisite for designing the intelligent human–computer interaction in future aircraft cockpit. The purpose of this paper is to outline an…

Abstract

Purpose

Semantic modelling is an essential prerequisite for designing the intelligent human–computer interaction in future aircraft cockpit. The purpose of this paper is to outline an ontology-based solution to this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

The scenario elements are defined considering the cognitive behaviours, system functions, interaction behaviours and interaction situation. The knowledge model consists of a five-tuple array including concepts, relations, functions, axioms and instances. Using the theory of belief-desire-intention, the meta-model of cognitive behaviours is established. The meta-model of system functions is formed under the architecture of sub-functions. Supported by information flows, the meta-model of interaction behaviours is presented. Based on the socio-technical characteristics, the meta-model of interaction situation is proposed. The knowledge representation and reasoning process is visualized with the semantic web rule language (SWRL) on the Protégé platform. Finally, verification and evaluation are carried out to assess the rationality and quality of the ontology model. Application scenarios of the proposed modelling method are also illustrated.

Findings

Verification results show that the knowledge reasoning based on SWRL rules can further enrich the knowledge base in terms of instance attributes and thereby improve the adaptability and learning ability of the ontology model in different simulations. Evaluation results show that the ontology model has a good quality with high cohesion and low coupling.

Practical implications

The approach presented in this paper can be applied to model complex human–machine–environment systems, from a semantics-driven perspective, especially for designing future cockpits.

Originality/value

Different from the traditional approaches, the method proposed in this paper tries to deal with the socio-technical modelling issues concerning multidimensional information semantics. Meanwhile, the constructed model has the ability of autonomous reasoning to adapt to complex situations.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 93 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1748-8842

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2007

Ola Johansson and Daniel Hellström

The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework of the potential benefits of asset visibility in the context of returnable transport items (RTI), and uses the framework to…

2458

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework of the potential benefits of asset visibility in the context of returnable transport items (RTI), and uses the framework to examine the effect of asset visibility on the management of RTI systems.

Design/methodology/approach

A combined case study and simulation approach was used. A case study was performed to identify and understand how an existing RTI system is managed, while discrete‐event simulation was the method chosen to explore the potential effect of asset visibility.

Findings

The paper identifies cost aspects of implementing and operating RTI systems which may be influenced by asset visibility. The study implies that significant cost savings can be achieved through increased asset visibility, and highlights the importance of shrinkage and its impact on the operating cost of an RTI system. However, asset visibility alone is not enough; it requires proper actions and continuous management attention in order to attain the savings.

Research limitations/implications

The results are derived from a single, combined case and simulation study.

Practical implications

The combined methods proved to be an efficient way of assessing and quantifying the potential effect of asset visibility along with the associated uncertainty in the results.

Originality/value

The paper provides an improved understanding of the effect of asset visibility on the management of RTI systems and complements existing visibility literature.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 37 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2017

Lili Mundle, Marianne Beisheim and Lars Berger

This paper aims to analyze the relevance of private meta-governance for multi-stakeholder partnerships. The authors assume that meta-governance, defined as higher level rules that…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the relevance of private meta-governance for multi-stakeholder partnerships. The authors assume that meta-governance, defined as higher level rules that shall guide partnerships’ governance activities, could build on and institutionalize lessons learned about partnerships’ success conditions and, in doing so, may render partnerships’ work more effective in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

The research paper investigates a case of non-state meta-governance in the standard-setting arena. It explores how actors assess the interaction of the meta-governance efforts of the International Social and Environmental Accreditation and Labelling (ISEAL) Alliance (mainly in the form of their three Codes of Good Practice) and the Alliance for Water Stewardship’s efforts when setting and implementing their International Water Stewardship Standard. For this, a combination of research methods is applied: a literature review for deriving propositions on success conditions; document analysis, participatory observation and semi-structured interviews for gathering empirical evidence on the interaction between meta-governance and the partnership’s work.

Findings

Respondents praise the benefits of ISEAL’s enabling meta-governance measures to strengthen their standard, structures and processes, as well as from ensuring activities, as these also improve their internal governance system while simultaneously providing credibility. In this context, they confirm the relevance of three success factors mentioned in the literature on voluntary standards: an inclusive process, a locally adapted design of the standard and institutionalized compliance management.

Practical implications

Instead of reinventing the wheel with every new multi-stakeholder partnership, meta-governance frameworks should be used to enable partnership staff and members, policymakers and stakeholders to learn from experience.

Originality/value

The authors’ analysis generates unique insights into perceptions of partnerships’ staff and stakeholders regarding lessons learned and private meta-governance. The present study on these actors’ perspectives provides a starting-point for further research on how meta-governance could help institutionalize success factors to scale-up and improve the impact of standard-setting partnerships.

Details

Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, vol. 8 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8021

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 December 2019

Tashfeen Ahmad

The world of work and education is changing at a rapid pace, driven by continued technological disruption and automation. The future is uncertain and difficult to envisage. A…

3869

Abstract

Purpose

The world of work and education is changing at a rapid pace, driven by continued technological disruption and automation. The future is uncertain and difficult to envisage. A futures thinking scenario planning approach is used in exploring and guiding education policy makers on how best to respond to the range of possible futures. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes elements of prior scenario planning methodologies to devise a practical model of preferred and plausible likely scenarios in the context of rapid and continuing technology disruption. Based on the notion of “impact and uncertainty,” two possible future alternatives of work and learning were developed. Incorporating elements of the possibility space scenario framework and a vignette approach of current emergent technologies, this paper assessed the usefulness of the preferred and likely outcomes.

Findings

While preferred future scenarios entailing collaborative styles such as human–machine cooperation, smart virtual active learning campuses and living knowledge learning environments may produce more desirable benefits for education stakeholders, the more likely plausible scenario is one based on continued disruptive technologies. Automation, artificial intelligence and the advent of 5G network technologies will drive customization and personalization in higher education delivery and revolutionize the work landscape in the immediate future. Universities will need to embrace and respond to these changes.

Originality/value

The paper gives insights into how universities can prepare their students for future of work and improve their employability. In addition, this author recommends ways in which HEIs can leverage these newer technologies to drive educational services and commercial value.

Details

Higher Education, Skills and Work-Based Learning, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-3896

Keywords

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