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What do we mean by the term ‘megatrend’? A megatrend is a prominent feature of global politico‐economic change brought about by or against the recent thrust of capitalist globalization. A megatrend is also a pattern of thinking and action that is entrenched in a certain perception of historical change and capital‐worker ownership relationships. A megatrend is thus seen as a pattern of change that will profoundly impress the future of mankind in its relationship with others and with the full gamut of the ecological domain including markets and institutions (Heilbroner & Milberg, 1996). In this paper, the study of megatrends will also encompass the hidden forces that will powerfully influence, profoundly change and guide that momentum of change to an objective globalization in the future, even as the growthmanship agenda of global capitalism breathes its last in a post‐modern age.

This article asks (1) what megatrends are likely to significantly influence public sector roles and in what ways and (2) how might higher education institutions better prepare public sector leaders for the future shaped by these trends. While public sector leadership in every region, country and locality is unique, they are exposed to the same set of global megatrends. Therefore, this article teases out general insights, observations and implications for public sector leaders and educators by focusing on the effects of these trends.

The article is informed by a review and synthesis of relevant academic and practitioner sources and is complemented by the authors' survey (n = 64) of public affairs practitioners and educators. The survey is not representative and is used to supplement other inferences from the literature.

The key megatrends reshaping public sector jobs include demographic and climate changes, technological advances and deepening social fragmentation. The confluence of such trends has increasingly strained the public sector's capacity to respond to present challenges, let alone prepare for the future. The future public sector leaders can benefit from new competencies, including ability to think systematically, see the big picture and ability to solve complex problems. Ideally, they would also have a strong capacity to foster collaboration and cohesion among diverse stakeholders, to model ethical and inclusive behavior, to accommodate, facilitate and bridge competing and conflicting viewpoints and become creative innovators and doers who can operate in increasingly complex environments, while navigating and reshaping their governments' outdated institutional structures.

The key trends reshaping public sector jobs include environmental, demographic and technological factors and deepening social fragmentation. The confluence of such factors has increasingly strained the public sector's capacity to respond to present challenges, let alone prepare for the future. The authors observe that the future of public sector practitioners may benefit from new competencies including digital and data fluency, high emotional intelligence, who are also big picture thinkers who understand global megatrends and their impacts locally. Ideally, they would have a strong capacity to foster cohesion among fragmented and polarized communities, to model ethical and inclusive behavior, to accommodate, facilitate and bridge diverse viewpoints and become creative innovators and doers who can operate in increasingly complex environments, while navigating and reshaping their governments' outdated institutional structures.

The megatrends listed above have significant implications for public sector leaders and educators who train them.

There is a new awareness about the need to train public sector workers on diversity and inclusion issues. This paper discusses global trends through this lens.

This synthesis of the literature from academic and practitioner sources, supplemented with the original survey of educators and professionals, intends to open up a conversation about the future of public affairs leadership and education.

The best‐selling book Megatrends, written by John Naisbitt, has been cited in numerous library and information science publications and talks since its appearance in 1982 Megatrends was bound to capture the attention of the librarians, since it boldly proclaims on page one that no shift “is more subtle, yet more explosive” than the change from an industrial to an information society. It has further appeal because many of the changes documented in Megatrends can be observed in libraries and the institutions and organizations they serve; moreover, the trends provide a framework from which to assess the status and direction of the information professions. This article will examine the several megatrends as they apply to the electronic library and will suggest appropriate plans of action.

This paper is the continuation of an earlier paper in this journal on global megatrends provoking institutional changes. It contains sectoral analyses with relevance to environmental protection. Conclusions for suitable institutional reorganisation of (environmental or other) institutions are presented. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

A planet-wide information system might optimally also include areas such as human development indicators, water supply and demand and deforestation issues.

While administrations are increasingly oriented towards servicing a society, environmental institutions should specifically take care of global megatrends in the following areas: genetic engineering and biological safety, integrated plant technology in industry, climate protection, agriculture, noise, emissions and air pollution, sustainability, spatial planning and regional planning, radiation protection and nuclear power, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Environmental Information Act, traffic, forest, water.

The approach of this paper is the long-term matching of (national) administrative structures with (global) megatrends.

In Western Europe, the science of Public Administration is undergoing important changes. In this article a series of changes are described. These changes can be categorized under several headings called megatrends. The ten megatrends mentioned will shape the face of the science of Public Administration in the new millennium. This means that the theoretical basis, the methodological approach and the subject matter of the science of Public Administration will change to a certain degree.

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

The purpose of this paper is to identify trends and challenges in relation to the FM profession in the Nordic countries of Europe and to identify inputs to a common Nordic research agenda.

The study is based on theory from innovation systems and strategic foresight. First, a review of literature was carried out and an innovation systems model of the FM sector was developed. Second, four national workshops were held involving FM practitioners and researchers from Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Third, the results of the workshops were presented and discussed at a Nordic FM conference in August 2011. Finally, an adapted Delphi survey was carried out as a final data collection and validation of the findings. This article has the main focus on the results of the Delphi survey.

The results of the study show that the main issues vary considerably between the four countries, both with regards to megatrends in the strategic environments, the current trends and challenges and the future needs for new competences and knowledge. Despite the large national differences the study is able to identify joint interest across the four countries. Based on the study a common Nordic research agenda is proposed with two headlines: Valuation and professionalization of FM, and Resources and sustainability.

The study provides directions for future research with particular focus on the Nordic countries in Europe.

The study identifies trends and challenges as well as need for new knowledge and competences for FM practice in each of the four Nordic countries.

This is the first comprehensive foresight study aimed at developing a research agenda for FM across the Nordic countries.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of proto-institutions that are new institutional subsystems that subsequently affect the current institutional arrangements in the evolution of service ecosystems.

To shed light on the mode of action of proto-institutions, the authors investigate the changes of three service ecosystems in Italy: the health care ecosystem, the food-supply ecosystem and the urban mobility ecosystem.

First, the paper elucidates how changes of service ecosystems are triggered by megatrends that are external to specific service ecosystems. Second, the study empirically shows how service ecosystems and their institutional settings change through the establishment of proto-institutions.

Responding to recent calls to investigate in more detail how actors challenge dominant social patterns and to conduct research to better understand how changes at the level of individual actors may lead to shifts within overall service ecosystems, this paper is one of the first to empirically study the relationships between phenomena that are external to service ecosystems, the emergence of proto-institutions and the resulting changes of institutional arrangements.

The purpose of this paper is to inquire about the applicability of the concept of granularity to the necessity of future research or – as often called in the European Union – forward looking (FL). After theoretical deliberation, it uses a planned world-wide information system as a case study for applying the notion of granularity regarding economic sectors, time steps, geographic regions and correlations for energy, water, land use and several other drivers of global change.

A planet-wide information system might optimally include areas such as human development indicators, water demand and supply and deforestation issues. A short literature analysis on “granularity” shows this concept to have a highly culturally determined and constructivist nature.

The spatial, temporal and sectoral granularity of data presentation strongly impacts conclusions and considerations while looking forward. Hence, granularity issues are of key importance for the question of which megatrends are ultimately discerned as most relevant.

These findings may impact the regular report on global megatrends authored by the European Environment Agency, as well as world-wide energy and emission scenarios and technological foresight, such as the “Global Change Data Base” as a next step of research.

In future research, the step from purely quantitative perceptions towards structural perceptions, pattern recognition and understanding of system transitions might be facilitated. The FL statements of larger companies might be diversified, enlarged in scope and use deeper structural understanding.

Earlier databases tend to have been focused on one or several single disciplines; the present approach, however, attempts transdisciplinarity and a multiparadigmatic approach.

A number of fundamental, and mostly irreversible, demographic and technological changes are taking place right in front of our eyes. Unfortunately, many marketing practitioners don't see them, even though they are living through them; this is partly because these changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary and partly because of their preoccupation with tactical operations, annual budget battles, and continual reorganizations.