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1 – 1 of 1Md. Mahbub Alam, Md. Nazmus Sadekin and Sanjoy Kumar Saha
This paper aims to investigate the impact of selected macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP, inflation (INF), the volume of trade (TR) and money…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of selected macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP, inflation (INF), the volume of trade (TR) and money supply (M2) on-budget deficit (BD) in Bangladesh over the period of 1980–2018.
Design/methodology/approach
By using secondary data, the paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables under study.
Findings
Johansen’s cointegration test result shows that there exists a positive long-run relationship of selected macroeconomic variables (real effective exchange rate, inflation, the volume of trade and money supply) with the budget deficit, whereas GDP has a negative one. The short-run results from the VECM show that GDP, inflation and money supply have a negative relationship with the budget deficit. The Granger Causality test results reveal unidirectional causal relationships running from BD to REER; TR to BD; M2 to BD; GDP to REER; M2 to REER; INF to GDP; GDP to TR; M2 to GDP and bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and BD; TR and REER; M2 and TR.
Originality/value
Bangladesh has been experiencing a budget deficit since 1972 due to a decline in sources of revenue. This study contributes to the empirical debate on the causal nexus between macroeconomic variables and budget deficits by employing VECM and Granger Causality approaches.
Details