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This paper aims to draw on historical conceptions of true and false prudence within the broader context of virtue ethics ideas, to create a prudence framework for developing risk-and-ethics cultures in organisations.

The authors use a theoretical analytical approach as a means of examining plausible representations of risk as ethical practice.

While the ethical ideal of true prudence is explained primarily with reference to psychological theories of generativity, false prudence is explained as undesirable, primarily with reference to psychological problems of narcissism and the broader dark triad. True and false prudence are represented as centring upon very different motivations for foresight, each of which might set the cultural tone for organisational risk management.

This paper’s main contribution is therefore to call attention to the benefits for organisations of reflecting upon differences between true and false prudence when planning the risk management they want.

This conceptual paper aims to explore how supply chain managers deal with social threats to supply chains, in the process of demonstrating the potency of a largely neglected strand of realist social theory. This theory, as posited, sheds a great deal of light on the behavioural reality of how supply chain managers operate within the social aspects of their risk environments.

The paper is presented as a narrative synthesis of classical realist sociological literature.

The Machiavellian approach provides a template that can be used to help academics and practitioners understand how and why supply chain managers orient themselves to the social threats they confront in very different ways. The theory’s contention that the behavioural reality can be subdivided between two basic patterns allows it to serve as a constructively simple template for becoming attuned to ways in which supply chain managers socially construct and act within their social threat environments.

The growing social complexity of supply chains gives behavioural responses a complexity reduction function. The authors theorise that such patterns, once activated, may not necessarily adapt rationally as guides to optimise the chance of success against the full range of social threats they are likely to encounter.

Cross-disciplinary supply chain management research is increasingly drawing upon sociology and behavioural science to facilitate greater understanding of not only the supply chain environment but also the roles of supply chain managers as relationship influencers and managers of conflict. The authors posit that Machiavellian–realist social theory can contribute to supply chain management scholarship by offering a constructively simple approach to evaluate the behavioural realities associated with social threats.

Risk appetite is widely accepted as a guiding metaphor for strategic risk management, yet metaphors for complex practice are hard to critique. This paper aims to apply an analytical framework comprising three categories of flaw – futility, perversity and jeopardy – to critically explore the risk appetite metaphor. Taking stock of management literature emphasising the need for metaphor to give ideation to complex management challenges and activities and recognising the need for high-level metaphor within strategic risk management in particular, the authors propose a means to scrutinise the risk appetite metaphor and thereby illustrate its use for further management metaphors.

The authors apply a structured analytical perspective designed to scrutinise conceivably any purportedly progressive social measure. The three flaw categories are used to warn that organisational risk appetite specifications can be: futile vis-a-vis their goals, productive of perverse outcomes with respect to these goals and so misleading about the true potential for risk management as to jeopardise superior alternative use of risk management resource. These flaw categories are used to structure a critical review of the risk appetite metaphor, which moves towards identifying its most fundamental flaws.

Two closely interrelated antecedents to flaws discussed within the three flaw categories are proposed: first, false confidence in organisational risk assessment and, second, organisational blindness towards contributions of behavioural risk-taking to true organisational risk exposure. A theory of high (over-optimistic, excessive or inappropriate) risk-taking organisations explores flaws within the three flaw categories with reference to these antecedents under organisational-cultural circumstances where the risk appetite metaphor is most needed and yet most problematic.

The paper is highly original in its representation of risk management as an organisational practice reliant on metaphor and in proposing a structured means to challenge it as a dominant guiding metaphor where it has gained widespread uncritical acceptance. The discussion is also innovative in its representation of high risk-taking organisations as likely to harbour strong managerial motives, aptitudes and capacities for covert and illicit forms of risk-taking which, being subversive and sometimes reactionary towards risk appetite specifications, may cause particularly serious futility, perversity and jeopardy problems. To conclude, the theory and its implications are summarised for practitioner and educational use.

This study aims to explore the impact of cultural values on the importance individuals assign to project success/failure factors (PSFFs).

Themes emerging from 40 interviews of project practitioners based in Brazil, China, Greece, Nigeria, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the USA are integrated with literature evidence to design a survey instrument. One thousand three hundred and thirteen practitioner survey responses from the eight countries are analysed using multi-group, structural equation modelling.

Ten project success/failure indicators (PSFIs) are found to reduce to two main PSFFs: project control and extra-organisational goals and project team management/development and intra-organisational goals. It is found that the levels of importance individuals assign to both factors are dependent, not only on age and gender, but also cultural values measured as constructs based on Hofstede's individualism, masculinity, power distance and uncertainty avoidance dimensions.

The snowballing method used to gather survey data and analysis of relationships at individual level reduces generalisability.

The results reveal insights on how best to match the cultural values of project participants to project characteristics. They also increase knowledge on the likely perceptual differences among culturally diverse individuals within projects.

This research contributes to the literature on culture in project environments by defining a factor structure of multiple-dependent PSFIs and increases insight on how specific cultural values may impact on the perception of the so-defined PSFFs.

The UK Chinook helicopter is a utility and attack helicopter being operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF). Its versatile nature is of enormous importance to the strategic capability of the RAF's operations. The purpose of this paper is to utilise systems‐based forecasting to conduct an evaluation of inventory and forecasting systems being used to support its maintenance programme.

A case study is conducted. Data are collected from existing monthly Component Repair (CRP) data and performance evaluation of software. For propriety reasons, all data have been sanitised.

Analysis of the current inventory and forecasting system suggests a possible lack of forecasting precision. Current non‐specific formulation of forecasting techniques implied several of the cost driver's demands were being miscalculated. This lack of precision is possibly a result of the smoothing value of 0.01 being too low, especially as the results of statistical modelling suggest that current parameter values of 0.01 might be too low.

The paper reports on work conducted jointly between Boeing and the University of Southampton that sought to create an intermittent demand forecasting model.

Unfortunately, the majority of studies examining business intelligence (BI) have focused on its exploitation in large firms. Often studies appear to assume that smaller firms have limited interest or capabilities in intelligence. The purpose of this paper is to redress this imbalance by extending the role of intelligence (intelligence management (IM)) to small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Data from a sample of 650 SMEs are analysed using multivariate techniques.

The results of the data analysis suggest that entrepreneurial pro-activeness is dependent on IM and Knowledge management; but also that a model fit exists between the IM and the ability of SMEs to enact and sustain entrepreneurial opportunities. The authors also found that firm size is a determining factor in the effectiveness of IM.

This study seeks to extend prior research which alludes to the fact that the decision-making capabilities of firms can be substantially enhanced through the exploitation of BI capabilities among SMES, which traditionally have not considered intelligence as a key competitive competency.

The objective of this study is to identify how risk and social variables are likely to be impacted by an increase in private sector participation in health insurance provision. The study focuses on the Chilean health insurance industry, traditionally dominated by the public sector.

Predictive risk modelling is conducted using a database containing over 250,000 health insurance policy records provided by the Superintendence of Health of Chile.

Although perceived with suspicion in some circles, risk segmentation serves as a rational approach to risk management from a resource perspective. The variables that have considerable impact on insurance claims include the number of dependents, gender, wages and the duration a claimant has been a customer.

As shown in the case study, to ensure that social benefits are realised, increased private sector participation in health insurance must be augmented by regulatory oversight and vigilance.

As it is clear that a “community-rated” health insurance provision philosophy impacts on insurance firm's ability to charge “market” prices for insurance provision, the authors explore whether risk segmentation is a feasible means of predicting insurance claim behaviour in Chile's private health insurance industry.

This paper aims to contribute to extant research which emphasises the need for service suppliers to be able to leverage firm‐customer relationships through an understanding of the correlation between service touch‐points and engagement parameters.

The authors utilised multivariate methods (CATPCA and Pro‐fit) to analyse the data. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey of 238 respondents, sampled through the social networking site, “Facebook”.

It was found from the analysis of data that within the context of customer engagement, four critical parameters (“satisfaction”, “loyalty/advocacy”, “recruitment/retention” and “customer losses”) impact on customer touch‐points.

The study is characterised by two limitations. The first is that the respondents' simultaneous utilisation of multiple touch‐points was not accounted for in the study. Second, the authors acknowledge that the narrow demographic spread of the respondents is a possible limitation of the study.

The study findings are grounded in empirical findings which is a departure from traditional scholarship on customer touch‐points which has been based on case observations and anecdotal evidence.

Drawing on extant technology acceptance literature, the purpose of this paper is to critically examine the impact of mandatory enterprise technology adoption in Nigeria.

Data were gathered from a survey of stockbrokers operating on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange on two occasions over a four year period. Expert forecasting (TSModel) algorithms were employed to assess attitudinal changes of users on mandatory system adoption.

The results suggest that over time, users (stockbrokers) developed an increasingly negative perception of the technology, thus emphasising the need for managers to focus on subjective imperatives that might impact the adoption of mandated technology.

Africa remains neglected in relation to information systems/information technology (IS/IT) research. This has driven the authors’ interest in seeking to understand how contextual peculiarities specific to Africa could play a significant role in an understanding of well‐established IS/IT models.

To facilitate deeper explorations of the antecedents of user adoption of mandatory enterprise technology, the authors choose to lay the theoretical foundations of this study in social theories (specifically, voluntariness and subjective norm).