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By 2050 there will be 6.9 billion people living in urban areas, accounting for 70% of the global population. The most developed nations will have urbanisation rates as high as 90%. Not only will more people be living in cities, but the largest cities will be getting larger. In their analysis in Chapter 2, Kii and Doi estimate that there may be as many as 17 megacities, with more than 10 million inhabitants, in China by 2050. Even so, the bulk of urban population growth is likely to be in smaller cities.

This book brings together a number of the papers presented at a workshop hosted by Tongji University, Shanghai, on the implications of green urban transport in China under the auspices of the World Conference on Transport Research Society in September 2010. It is in five sections. Section 1 includes this introductory chapter, which summarises the content of the rest of the book, Chapter 2 is on trends in city size, and Chapter 3 provides an overview of Chinese transport policy. Section 2 considers approaches to policy formulation, drawing on experience in Europe and Asia. Section 3 focuses on passenger transport and traffic, while Section 4 covers freight and logistics. Section 5 draws together the principal conclusions of the 15 papers.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to propose a cross-assessment model as an analytical tool for developing sustainable urban transport and land-use strategies for a low-carbon society.

Methodology – A cross-assessment model is developed based on demand and supply models of transport services. The model is able to generate a set of the optimal service levels in public transport reflecting selected target strategies. It is applied to an impact analysis of public transport and land-use strategies in 2030 for all of Japan's 269 urban areas,with outcomes – including the financial balance of public transport operation, user benefits and CO2 emissions reduction – compared among strategies and urban areas.

Findings – The analytical results show that three value factors of efficiency, equity and the environment do not necessarily conflict with each other. In particular, it is clarified that CO2-emission reduction targets can contribute to the improvement of both financial balance and user benefits at the national level. In addition, the results of comparative analysis among the land-use and transport integration (LUTI) scenarios demonstrate that a combination of urban transport strategies and land-use control in the form of ‘corridors and multi-centres’ provides greater emission reduction and increased user benefits.

Implications – The cross-assessment model developed in this chapter could serve as an analytical tool for strategic transport planning. The results in this chapter underlinethe benefit of LUTI strategies particularly in China.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to project the global emergence of megacities through the 21st century using population scenarios consistent with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Methodology – A dynamic urban growth model is developed based on a scale-independent theory of growing networks taking into consideration the geographical and climatic suitability of the location of cities. The model is able to generate a series of megacity projections consistent with an experimental city size distribution based on a national urban population scenario consistent with Zipf's law. The model is applied to population projections for 45,316 cities around the world using three population scenarios from SRES.

Findings – All of the projections indicate that a large number of megacities will be generated in developing regions towards 2100, although the range is wide and depends on the population assumed in the scenarios. Some results indicate an extreme population concentration in megacities; this might be undesirable for national security, quality of life, and sustainable development. Transport policies affect urban growth and national land development through changes in mobility and accessibility across the nation.

Implications – The results presented in this chapter could serve to stimulate discussions on urban and national transport policies and planning, particularly in China.

JingWei BIAN is Director of Urban Construction Environment and Resources Committee of Xiamen Municipal People's Congress. He graduated from Tongji University with doctor's degree in urban planning and design. He is Professorate Senior Urban Planner and National Registered Urban Planner. He is a part-time Professor at Xiamen University, Huaqiao University and Jimei University. He has served as President of Xiamen Urban Planning and Design Institute and Deputy Director of Xiamen Planning Bureau. His main research interests are the urban planning theory and design, urban traffic planning, urban and rural planning management and regulations. He has published 4 books and over 50 papers on these topics.