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This paper aims to take a new look at how scenarios are produced and used. It does so from a perspective that is unusual in the field: network pragmatism.

This paper takes a conceptual approach.

A network pragmatist account allows scenarios to play an important role in actions designed to secure specific futures for organisations. It, thus, endows them with micro-political force. Any scenario that fails to exert this force will wither and, ultimately, die, but it can be resuscitated. With its demise in the networked world, a scenario can assume a more partial and private existence, shaping the affections, loyalties and actions of notable individuals.

This approach generates novel propositions that question the adequacy of currently dominant cognitive theories. However, it has yet to be tested empirically.

Pragmatist reading of scenarios that is proposed is not only distinct but also only ever partial. This work emphasises that a holistic account of scenario lives needs multiple theoretical perspectives.

The aim of this paper is to develop a specific strategic foresight methodology and integrate this into roadmapping which is suitable for corporations. To date, reasonable practical experience has been accumulated, but there is a lack of a comprehensive conceptual approach for using strategic foresight and roadmapping to solve management problems.

This approach integrates corporate strategic foresight and roadmapping in several stages. During the foresight phase, the authors create scenarios of long-term development determined by long-term macro trends and challenges to identify “points of growth” and system of priorities for company growth. A strategic roadmap enables the company to form a “corridor” for specific projects and create a long-term action plan to implement the priorities identified in the first phase. Using a project roadmap makes it possible to ensure the implementation of a specific project, defining a system of goals, the necessary measures, their timing and financing, as well as indicators to assess their effectiveness.

The core result of the suggested methodology is a set of possible trajectories of innovation development, reflecting the whole technological chain involving R & D – technology – product – market. Each path involves a sequence of organizational actions and key decision-making points that are necessary to be taken to introduce new technological solutions and develop innovation products with new features to the customer/user. These routes support decision-making in such fields as the choice of the product line, establishment of new partnerships with developers of innovation technologies, decisions regarding “insourcing-outsourcing” and the requirements for relevant scientific and technological breakthroughs. It allows corporations to create strategies for commercializing innovation products.

The methodology proposes to integrate the results of foresight studies and in roadmaps and finally in business planning, adopting innovative strategies and management decisions. It contributes to the development of common principles and approaches to the subject, while taking account of company-specific features that can significantly affect the decision-making mechanism. The methodology is applicable to foreign and Russian companies when creating innovative strategies and management decisions based on the results of foresight.

The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

Part I provides a sketch of investigations of change and related areas of uncertainty and discontinuity. Part II provides a conceptual framework outlining four types of change: incremental, contextual, structural and foundational. Part III outlines the methodological distinctions required to explore the four types of change characterized here as normal and extraordinary foresight. Part IV combines these examinations to develop a structured approach to scenario analysis. Finally, Part V examines the implications of this work.

A structured approach to scenario planning explores four variations of evolutionary and revolutionary changes. It applies both normal and extraordinary foresight to explore the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change and to analyze the impact of shifts in ontological boundaries. While a structured approach applies established tools and techniques, it also directs our attention to areas where we can do more. It is an integral part of strategic foresight in a changing world.

This is a conceptual article based on over 25 years of practice in corporate strategy, including 10 years of work in scenario planning. It is also drawn from doctoral research on the epistemological and ontological boundaries of paradigms (Wayland, 2003), as outlined in Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn and Hacking, 2012).

Recent work examining the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change are linked with a practical framework and methodological distinction. These contributions are combined with a structured approach to scenario planning to improve the ability to anticipate and to plan for change.

This paper aims to describe the context and relevance of strategic foresight in the chemical industry. By using a case study of a multinational chemical company, the authors intend to show how global organizations use scenario planning as part of their strategic planning processes. Concentrating on scenario planning for regional strategies, the authors want to contribute to best practice of scenario methodology and ideally inspire academic research.

Reviewing the literature of scenario planning and strategy elaboration, the authors focus on the Hax strategy process of strategy formation, as been applied in the case study’s company. They explain the scenario creation process in detail using a concrete example of India. The outcomes of the scenario creation process are then linked to the Hax strategy process’s description, to identify where scenario planning has created concrete value. Finally, the authors describe lessons learnt and list best practices for practitioners.

Based on the analysis, the authors argue that scenario processes add value when embedded in established strategic planning processes. Lessons learned include among others that it is beneficial that the participants creating the scenarios are also those who join the strategy elaboration and that significant effort needs to go into systematically translating scenarios into implications for the organization.

This designed case study is based on the experience of 17 process iterations during a period of five years with over 170 participants during which the core scenario process moderator team did not change.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence (or policy research) functions. Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic strategic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products. The paper further discusses the necessity and involvement of a central government foresight agency and a non-hierarchical distributed network linking the foresight units.

Possible solutions are considered with respect to costs of development and implementation, risk (likelihood, consequence and uncertainty) of the new function’s failure, direct negative or positive effect on the performance of existing functions, the level of cross-organizational involvement in or collaboration with the new function, the level of cross-organization tangible benefits and the level of vertical involvement, especially at the executive level.

With few exceptions, the implementation of foresight by governments has not been at all methodical, but has followed many different paths, where it has occurred at all. The approach proposed in this paper – establishing a central foresight agency, propagating individual agency-based small programmatic foresight units and virtual teams and creating a non-hierarchical distributed network to link all of them – appears to best meet the success criteria set out in the paper.

Governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies that have previously shied away from methodically implementing strategic foresight or that have attempted to do so without real success now have an approach that is likely to produce the desired results.

The paper creates a sound framework for governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies to consider and proceed with the implementation of foresight functions and networks to support them.

The proposed approach is entirely new and generally challenges current practices.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model to unpack the relationship between organisational routines and strategic foresight integration.

Three moderating factors, actors mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity, are used in a Routines-Foresight Model to explain how and when organisational routines might influence strategic foresight integration. In addition, the interactions between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines are linked to the concept of routines as generative structures to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the relationship between routines and foresight.

The success (or failure) of foresight integration is partly a result of the nature of interaction between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines within a focal organisation. As a result of the characteristic embeddedness of routines in organisations however, certain factors further act as moderators to contribute to a holistic explanation of how the ostensive and performative interaction influence foresight integration success.

This paper proposes that routines, whether seen from a change or stability-inducing perspective, could lead to success or failure in foresight integration depending on how the moderating factors (actor’s mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity) are managed to accommodate feedback from an organisation’s external environment. In this way, the model proposed challenges present perceptions of routines as leading to successful change behaviours if flexibility is allowed or to failure if they are rigid and unchanging.

Cultivating strategic foresight involves the integration of foresight into organisational decisions and requires organisations to pay attention to understanding the organizing logic of its organizing routines and the contextual factors within which these routines are performed.

The paper draws on the organisational routines literature to develop new insights into the cultivation of organisational foresightfulness.

The purpose of this paper is to offer a new perspective for strategic foresight on the basis of nurture theory. Strategia Sapiens refers to the fact that strategic work needs to be foresight oriented, and foresight should be directly value driven.

The following areas of strategic foresight are offered for discussion: the content of a vision, its emergence process and the characteristics of strategic foresight in time and in space.

The interdisciplinary approach of this research creates a synthesis of and bases its findings on the empirical and theoretical findings of different scientific fields. The primary finding is that nurture theory offers new perspectives to refine and renew strategic foresight. One perspective is the existence of a value- and culture-driven way of life, and the other is the simultaneous self-realisation of individuals. The paper creates the following models on the basis of nurture theory: the system relations of strategic foresight, a complex model of development, the field and system of strategic foresight activities, the logistic life-cycle model and the field of force of social spaces.

This discussion and approach are highly useful for regional and national strategic practitioners, and they contribute to the discussion of the concept and measurement of development. The nurture theory approach strengthens the incorporation of cultural responsibility, as well as an intergenerational view of strategic foresight, which are both fundamental for a renewal of this field.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how organisational closure can inform strategic foresight.

The authors draw insights from illustrative cases, i.e. Swissair, Sabena and Cameroon Airlines to illustrate their theoretical analysis.

The study shed light on the effects of internal and external factors in precipitating business closures. The authors established that top executives’ hubris, resistance to change and over-reliance on external consultants are some of precursors to organisational closure.

The analysis of this paper provides a range of strategies that organisations can pursue to learn from other firms’ closure and improve their survivability and chances of future success.

Despite a growing body of literature on strategic foresight and organisational closure, the literature has largely developed in isolation and as such the understanding of the relationship between strategic foresight and organisational closure has remained severely limited. The paper integrates these two streams of research to enrich the understanding of how firms can learn from others to improve their strategic foresight.