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Credit ratings serve as an important input in several applications in risk management of the financial firms. The level of credit rating changes from time to time because of random credit risk and, thus, can be modeled by an appropriate stochastic process. Markov chain models have been widely used in the literature to generate credit migration matrices; however, emergent empirical evidences suggest that the Markov property is not appropriate for credit rating dynamics. The purpose of this article is to address the non-Markov behavior of the rating dynamics.

This paper proposes a model based on Markov regenerative process (MRGP) with subordinated semi-Markov process (SMP) to obtain the estimates of rating migration probability matrices and default probabilities. Numerical example is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model with the help of historical Standard & Poor’s (S&P) credit rating data.

The proposed model implies that rating of a firm in the future not only depends on its present rating, but also on its previous ratings. If a firm gets a rating lower than its previous ratings, there are higher chances of further downgrades, and the issue is called the rating momentum. The model also addresses the ageing problem of credit rating evolution.

The contribution of this paper is a more general approach to study the rating dynamics and overcome the issues of inappropriateness of Markov process applied in rating dynamics.

As the last link of product remanufacturing, reassembly process is of great importance in increasing the utilization of remanufactured parts as well as decreasing the production cost for remanufacturing enterprises. It is a common problem that a large amount of remanufactured part/reused part which past the dimension standard have been scrapped, which have increased the production cost of remanufacturing enterprises to a large extent. With the aim to improve the utilization of remanufacturing parts with qualified quality attributes but exceed dimension, the purpose of this paper is to put forward a reassembly classification selection method based on the Markov Chain.

To begin with, a classification standard of reassembly parts is proposed. With the thinking of traditional ABC analysis, a classification management method of reassembly parts for remanufactured engine is proposed. Then, a homogeneous Markov Chain of reassembly process is built after grading the matching dimension of reassembly parts with different variety. And the reassembly parts selection model is constructed based on the Markov Chain. Besides, the reassembly classification selection model and its flow chart are proposed by combining the researches above. Finally, the assembly process of remanufactured crankshaft is adopted as a representative example for illustrating the feasibility and the effectiveness of the method proposed.

The reassembly classification selection method based on the Markov Chain is an effective method in improving the utilization of remanufacturing parts/reused parts. The average utilization of remanufactured crankcase has increased from 35.7 to 80.1 per cent and the average utilization of reused crankcase has increased from 4.2 to 14 per cent as shown in the representative example.

The reassembly classification selection method based on the Markov Chain is of great importance in enhancing the economic benefit for remanufacturing enterprises by improving the utilization of remanufactured parts/reused parts.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a state dependent stochastic Markov model for availability analysis of process plant instead of traditional time dependent model.

The traditional concepts of system performance measurement and reliability (namely, binary; two-state concepts) are observed to be inadequate to characterize performance of complex system components. Availability analysis considering an intermediate state, such as a degraded state, provides a better alternative mechanism for system performance mapping. The availability model provides a better assessment of failure and repair characteristics for equipment in the sub-system and its overall performance. In addition to availability analysis, this paper also discusses the preventive maintenance (PM) program to achieve target availability. In this model, the degraded state is considered as a PM state. Using Markov analysis the optimum maintenance interval is determined.

Markov process provides an easier way to measure the performance of the process facility. This study also revealed that the maintenance interval has a major influence in the availability of a process facility as well as in maintaining target availability. The developed model is also applicable to the varying target availability as well as having the capability to handle even the reconfigured process systems.

Considering the degraded state as an operative state, a higher availability of the plant is predicted. The consideration of the degraded state of the system makes the availability estimation more realistic and acceptable. Availability quantification, target availability allocation and a PM model are exemplified in a sub-system of an liquefied natural gas facility.

The unique features of the present study are; Markov modeling approach integrating availability and PM; optimum PM interval determination of stochastically degrading components based on target availability; consideration of three-state systems; and consideration of increasing failure rates.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the best frequency description of a chain dependent Markov process for the daily simulation of precipitation. The influence of the order of the Markov chain model to simulate daily precipitation occurrence is evaluated. A mixed‐order model is constructed and compared to a simple first‐order model to evaluate the importance of the model order for the pricing of a rainfall index put option.

For the first time a mixed‐order Markov chain model is presented where the monthly varying order was chosen based on a Bayesian information criteria analysis of rainfall data for one weather station in the US. The outcome of this model is compared to simpler Markov models and to burn analysis results.

The comparison indicate that there is only a slightly better representation of the rain statistics in the theoretically best mixed‐order Markov chain model compared to a more simple first‐order model. Clear differences between the daily simulation and the burn method are found when pricing a put option on a rainfall index. All daily simulation models underestimate the volatility of the monthly rainfall amount especially in the summer months.

To assess the robustness and any geographical dependence of the bias in the volatility a systematic analysis could be applied to more weather stations across the US in further studies.

The bias in the volatility has significant influence on the price of the put option considered here and limits the use of such a model for risk analyses, e.g. for an extreme event cover.

For the first time a multi‐order Markov chain model is applied to price a precipitation derivative. While the focus of previous studies was the appropriate choice for the intensity process, the importance of the frequency process is investigated in this paper.

The purpose of this paper is to review the Fuzzy Markov development for assessing the structural integrity of buried transportation bridges. In doing so, the appropriateness of Fuzzy Markov will be assessed, leading to the subsequent model.

This research will utilize the Fuzzy Markov techniques as the conceptual framework. Such methodology is further supported via the utilization and evaluation of 30 buried transportation bridges using the developed Fuzzy Markov model.

Subsequently, through a developed Fuzzy Markov model, this research found that as the basis of structural resilience, specific matrices for age-dependent transition probability can be compiled using conditional survival probabilities in the various structural states; as the basis of structural integrity, specific environmental and economic schemes can also be established based on inspection intervals, intervention systems and failure phases; exact inspection and maintenance intervals can be scheduled to further prolong an asset’s life; and clear and early warning signs can also be formulated for immediate intervention when the structural integrity of the asset are indeed compromised.

The gap within the literature currently surrounds the limitation of computational analysis for some buried structures such as bridges. Specifically, to streamline such evaluation and regimes, a Fuzzy Markov is developed and reviewed.

The flexibility of batch process enables its wide application in fine-chemical, pharmaceutical and semi-conductor industries, whilst its complexity necessitates control performance monitoring to ensure high operation efficiency. This paper proposes a data-driven approach to carry out controller performance monitoring within batch based on linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) method.

A linear time-varying LQG method is proposed to obtain the joint covariance benchmark for the stochastic part of batch process input/output. From historical golden operation batch, linear time-varying (LTV) system and noise models are identified based on generalized observer Markov parameters realization.

Open/closed loop input and output data are applied to identify the process model as well as the disturbance model, both in Markov parameter form. Then the optimal covariance of joint input and output can be obtained by the LQG method. The Hotelling's Tˆ2 control chart can be established to monitor the controller.

(1) An observer Markov parameter approach to identify the time-varying process and noise models from both open and closed loop data, (2) a linear time-varying LQG optimal control law to obtain the optimal benchmark covariance of joint input and output and (3) a joint input and output multivariate control chart based on Hotelling's T² statistic for controller performance monitoring.

Many Information Theoretic Measures have been proposed for a quantitative assessment of causality relationships. While Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Renault (1987) had introduced the so-called “Kullback Causality Measures,” extending Geweke’s (1982) work in the context of Gaussian VAR processes, Schreiber (2000) has set a special focus on Granger causality and dubbed the same measure “transfer entropy.” Both papers measure causality in the context of Markov processes. One contribution of this paper is to set the focus on the interplay between measurement of (non)-markovianity and measurement of Granger causality. Both of them can be framed in terms of prediction: how much is the forecast accuracy deteriorated when forgetting some relevant conditioning information? In this paper we argue that this common feature between (non)-markovianity and Granger causality has led people to overestimate the amount of causality because what they consider as a causality measure may also convey a measure of the amount of (non)-markovianity. We set a special focus on the design of measures that properly disentangle these two components. Furthermore, this disentangling leads us to revisit the equivalence between the Sims and Granger concepts of noncausality and the log-likelihood ratio tests for each of them. We argue that Granger causality implies testing for non-nested hypotheses.

Based on the analysis of the dissipative structure of the retail service supply chain (RSSC), this paper divides the system into two internal and external dissipative mechanisms, including the internal performance dissipation mechanism and the perceived quality dissipation mechanism outside the system. Based on the prediction of RSSC performance, this paper aims to discuss the application of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in this field and puts forward a set of complete process of forecasting the service supply chain (SSC) performance based on HMM model.

Based on the theory of dissipative structure, this paper selects the RSSC as the research object, analyzes the system characteristics of the dissipation structure of RSSC from three aspects, such as system opening type, distance from equilibrium state and nonlinear order and describes the quality fluctuation process of RSSC as a Hidden Markov process. Taking the RSSC of J Company as an example, this paper makes use of the observed state value of customer perceived service quality from 1997 to 2016, predicts the performance status of the enterprise's RSSC.

The research results show that: RSSC is a dissipative structure system, and its performance is the internal entropy flow of the system, and the customer perceived service quality is external, their interaction determines the dynamic evolution of the system dissipation structure, and the Markov property between supply chain performance and perceived service quality. There is a Markov property between supply chain performance and perceived service quality. Using the perceived service quality observation state data of the external consumers of the system can effectively predict the implicit state of RSSC performance. Based on this prediction result, the strategy adjustment and optimization of the action mechanism of internal and external entropy flow in the dissipative structure system can be carried out to promote the sustainable development of the RSSC.

This paper thinks that RSSC is a dissipative structure system and the SSC performance and customer perceived service quality are the internal and external entropy flow of the system, which determines the dynamic evolution of the system dissipation structure. There is a Markov property between supply chain performance and perceived service quality. The hidden state of SSC performance can be predicted effectively by using a hidden Markov model and observing state data of perceived service quality from consumers outside the system.

Finding the optimal solution to address problems in sewer management systems has always challenged asset managers. An understanding of deterioration mechanisms in sewers can help asset managers in developing prediction models for estimating whether or not sewer collapse is likely. The effective use of deterioration prediction models along with the development and use of life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) can contribute to the goals of reducing construction, operation and maintenance costs in sewer systems. When sewer system maintenance/rehabilitation options are viewed as investment alternatives, it is important, and in some cases, imperative, to make decisions based on life cycle costs instead of relying totally on initial construction costs. The objective of this paper is to discuss the application of deterioration modelling and life cycle cost principles in sewer system management, and to explore the role of the Markov chain model in decision making regarding sewer rehabilitation. A test case is used to demonstrate the application of the Markov chain decision model for sewer system management. The analysis includes evaluation of this concept using dynamic programming and the policy improvement algorithm.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models.

The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users in a learning system's pre‐project. The present research is intended to answer questions of the type “how”, evaluating the usability through Markov models and the interaction of the learning system's users.

The paper provides a study which allowed the generation of a probability matrix among states and actions, which was utilized in the evaluation of usability based on Markov models, where the usability criteria specified were analyzed. Markov models allow a series of measures of interest to be calculated and they have been successfully utilized in the evaluation of computing and communication systems.

This research aimed to investigate the utilization of Markov models in the evaluation of usability in a remote learning system in its pre‐project phase and to help in proposing improvement suggestions.